Ironman Frankfurt 2025 - run up and race day

This year’s Ironman Frankfurt in 6 days’ time is THE most competitive men’s race ever, outside a World Championships.
Thorsten in his seedings has:

  • Blummenfelt (IMWC 2021)
  • Ditlev (podiums IMWC 2023 and 2024, Roth fastest ever)
  • Lange (Three times IMWC)
  • Stornes (#3 of the awesome Norge threesome)
  • Barnaby (IM Pro Series winner 2024)
  • Lindars (#2 here last year in breakout race)
  • Von Berg (Mr Consistent but never a winner in a competitive field)
  • Schomburg (#3 in IMSA, keeping his WTCS ranking alive)
  • Baekkegard (#1 in likable Dane stakes)
  • Iden (IMWC Kona and 70.3 (x2) world champ)
  • Hoegenhaug (Challenge Champion this year)
  • Hirsch (uber swimmer)
  • Kanute . . .

Missing:

  • Laidlow (who still needs to validate)
  • MvR (who is racing 70.3 Nice that day, to get a Marbella slot)
  • Benito Lopez (is racing THE World Triathlon Long Distance World Champs that w/e in Pontevedra)
  • Wilde (in rehab)
  • Sanders and Long (both home boys and already NQ)

Pro Tri News (with Clutterbuck):

Start list:



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Are you discounting Magnus as a likable Dane?? :smiley:

No, but Daniel is a youtube ahead.
(And I struggled with a race highlight from him for last year or this: I guess #4 in Texas showed he was back in the mix: let’s hope so.)
Currie, Barnaby and Mignon DNS.

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Really interested to see what Iden can do. He should be far enough along from his injury and personal issues that we ought to see if he’s gonna come close to his past form.

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I would agree unlike lange where we do kind of know is mid season performance has not much to do with his Kona performance, for iden he has to do a solid performance to show he is improving. 4 th or 5 th would be solid.

  • Lindars (#2 here last year in breakout race)

It’s great you mentioned him - iirc he did really well in Hawaii too.

If anyone is interested, he gave a really good interview on Aero on the Brick Session podcast, last September or so, I believe.

Cliff notes being:

  • He doesn’t have top level power, only chance of success is to be aero
  • He has a CDA under 0.2
  • He thinks wind tunnel testing is a waste as it’s still, he gets much more real benefit from Velodrome testing
  • He rode with all off the shelf stuff - bars, bike, suit etc.

It’s really worth a listen, imho.

He flies under the radar, for sure.

Really looking forward to this race!!

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Thank you for your informative and interesting post.

Picks.

  1. Ditlev
  2. Blummenfelt
  3. Iden

And

  1. Haug
  2. Matthews
  3. Sodaro

Umm Frankfurt is MPro only.

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It is crazy stacked!
Of top 15 in Thorstens rating only 5 do not have a KQ spot. So you can Kona Q even though you finish outside top 10 in a very strong field!

Will be interesting to see magnus/Kristian/Lange duel!

that was a joke (which I was hoping that “Thank you for your informative and interesting post” hinted at)

Thank you for your cryptic and predictive post. Intrigued to discover after which race you expect those three WPros to stand on the podium.
I’d never count Haug out after her amazing Roth last year but will Sodaro ever stand on a podium again where 5 of the top athletes are racing? (perm any five from: LCB, Philipp, Matthews, Loevseth, Haug, Knibb). Will Lawrence go well enough in IMLP to join the conversation?
Ack massively off topic, but in a bid to surmount both your “informative and interesting” threshold, here’s the Triathlete mag take on Frankfurt:

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Thorsten must’ve been drunk when he came up with the ratings. 2 stars for Ditlev’s run? 5 stars for Iden’s swim and 2 stars for his run?

I don’t think he is “coming up” with the ratings - it is an algo based on past performance. You may think Iden is able to win this (and maybe he is back to his old self and will), but his performance in the past 2’ish years is putting him where he is in the rating.

That’s the point, Iden’s swim has never been a 5.

Judging Ditlev’s run as 2 :star:, on past full distance run times, seems a tad harsh: but only runs sub 2:40 in Roth (but best KB/Lange/RvB don’t expect 2:45 or they will not catch him).

Also following are DNS: Groesch, Große-Freese, Svenningsson

Or just: 4-star overall rating for Lange :open_mouth:
He is a three-time and reigning World Champion…

I suggest the chances of Lange delivering a 5 :star: performance this w/e is low, and I guess Thorsten’s data (which isn’t just based on his outstanding result last October) is the basis for that.
Only Blummenfelt has the overall 5 :star: rating: even Ditlev is only 4 :star: and look how he’s dominated Roth in early July each year (7:35, 7:24, 7:23 last year: fastest full distance (flat swim) ever).

Having said that the likely dangerously hot temperatures people are forcing themselves to run in on Sunday mean Lange has at least a psychological advantage because he believes he deals with those conditions better than his peers, as evidenced by his Kona successes.

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but when has he ever really performed 5 star end of jun or july. twice in his career i would say. its his business model not to be in peak shape in this period
iam sure he would love to win frankfurt but by and large he has his eyes on the big price. 4 time world champs sounds a lot better than frankfurt winner

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Valid point!

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at the same time if this was kona he would still get the same rating as thorstens ai
does not pick up on stuff like that.