This crazy country should have its own thread.
Massive explosions at an event marking the fourth anniversary of the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
Iran says at least 103 people killed, 141 wounded in blasts at ceremony honoring slain general (msn.com)
Okay. But where to start? No attribution so far. Any guesses?
Any guesses?
Israel paid an Iranian dissident group to do some things to hurt Revolutionary Guard types? I imagine high level RG types would be at the memorial.
Israel recently openly struck into Lebanon. So there is some evidence their eyeballs are starting to drift outside Israeli borders.
</tinfoil hat>
Okay. But where to start? No attribution so far. Any guesses?
Judging on the technique and the target I would go with ISIL but hard to say.
So how far back do we go with sorting exactly who are we to attack in Iran because of their support for Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah? If the theocracy led state wearing the sharia law abiding Black hat and outfitting a potent military along with a Revolutionary Guard is now being attacked by ISIL, is ISIL now our proxy or Israel’s proxy?
I guess my questions are rhetorical for the moment. I offer them up to reinforce what many of us are on record here saying that the region as a whole, and Iran specifically, is a very fluid environment with too many actors with too many agendas to support offensive operations just yet.
I guess my questions are rhetorical for the moment. I offer them up to reinforce what many of us are on record here saying that the region as a whole, and Iran specifically, is a very fluid environment with too many actors with too many agendas to support offensive operations just yet.
Yeah, you have to be very careful about what you want your end-goal to be. Israel helped sideline the PLO, and got something worse. Hamas. The U.S. regime-changed Saddam and got something worse for a long, long time. The U.S. overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan for darn near two decades, only to almost instantly revert to the Taliban.
Blowing up shit is super satisfying, but doesn’t necessarily lead to a happier situation.
Open confrontation against the Revolutionary Guard might cement the primacy of the hard right in the stuggles going on in Iran between moderates and the hard right.
It’s the typical tension between Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon. With Pentagon being the sexy star quarterback, and Foggy Bottom being the nerd in the library. CIA somewhere in between.
Odds and tensions between the three players here are always a given. I guess we should take comfort that we no longer have a station chief nor ambassador posted in Iran as the Iranians look for blame.
As far as end goals go and caution in obtaining desired outcomes, If the Brits and the US had just left Mossadegh, and his want to nationalize Iran’s oil and gas, alone back in the '53 how much different the region would be today. The Great Game played by world powers often is not so great.
The number of times nations have backed the wrong horse - your examples - or just completely misread the ground - Arab spring - should be a cautionary tale.
The number of times nations have backed the wrong horse - your examples - or just completely misread the ground - Arab spring - should be a cautionary tale.
Could it really be otherwise given the nature of politics, societies, historical contingencies, etc.
Hindsight is always 20/20, predicting the future while trying to push it in one direction or another has got to be destined for failure much if not most of the time.
I guess my questions are rhetorical for the moment. I offer them up to reinforce what many of us are on record here saying that the region as a whole, and Iran specifically, is a very fluid environment with too many actors with too many agendas to support offensive operations just yet.
Yeah, you have to be very careful about what you want your end-goal to be. Israel helped sideline the PLO, and got something worse. Hamas. The U.S. regime-changed Saddam and got something worse for a long, long time. The U.S. overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan for darn near two decades, only to almost instantly revert to the Taliban.
Blowing up shit is super satisfying, but doesn’t necessarily lead to a happier situation.
Open confrontation against the Revolutionary Guard might cement the primacy of the hard right in the stuggles going on in Iran between moderates and the hard right.
It’s the typical tension between Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon. With Pentagon being the sexy star quarterback, and Foggy Bottom being the nerd in the library. CIA somewhere in between.
That is exactly what would happen. Puling out of the JCPOA enabled the extremists in Iran to gain power. There are few moderates left.
The number of times nations have backed the wrong horse - your examples - or just completely misread the ground - Arab spring - should be a cautionary tale.
Could it really be otherwise given the nature of politics, societies, historical contingencies, etc.
Hindsight is always 20/20, predicting the future while trying to push it in one direction or another has got to be destined for failure much if not most of the time.
I have mentioned this before but it bears repeating. During the 1953 western backed coup against Mosaddegh my Grandfather was the military attaché at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. 25 years later my stepfather was flying surveillance planes over Iran during the hostage crisis.
Cause and affect in one generation in one family.
I’ve known several people from Iran really well over the past forty or so years. Clearly not a random sample as they are ones that have left the country either temporarily or permanently, but they seem quite western in outlook. Leave me with the impression that there is a significant percentage of the population that wants a “normal” non-fundamentalist country with good relations with the west. Kept out of reach by the Mullahs
Okay. But where to start? No attribution so far. Any guesses?
Local dissidents
Saudis
Egypt
Turkey
Israel
In that order
Any guesses?
Israel paid an Iranian dissident group to do some things to hurt Revolutionary Guard types? I imagine high level RG types would be at the memorial.
Israel recently openly struck into Lebanon. So there is some evidence their eyeballs are starting to drift outside Israeli borders.
</tinfoil hat>
They can eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah without starting a war. This would be an act of war.
Any guesses?
Israel paid an Iranian dissident group to do some things to hurt Revolutionary Guard types? I imagine high level RG types would be at the memorial.
Israel recently openly struck into Lebanon. So there is some evidence their eyeballs are starting to drift outside Israeli borders.
</tinfoil hat>
Its a good guess. From what I have heard, Israel is the #1 suspect. Lets face it, Iran keeps threatening Israel but hasn’t done a thing. Just empty threats. Meanwhile, Israel openly bombing and assassinating its enemies without them doing much of anything in retaliation. They all know that if they respond with some sort of missile strike, Israel will escalate and respond with an even bigger strike.
Netanyahu of course is desperate to stay in power and maintain the War Cabinet, keep the conflict going. Get the US involved even. So I suspect Israel is now becoming even more daring in trying to get Iran to directly attack Israel. I doubt the Saudis, ISIS or Iranian dissidents have anything to gain from this sort of attack. However, it does seem odd for Israel to launch this sort of attack unless it was trying to target a specific person.
Israel has operated (openly in the sense everyone knows about it) on other countries sovereign territory for decades - rise and kill first is 700 pages of examples - I’m not sure that the fact it’s Iran would have dissuaded them from undertaking the operation.
US thumps Iran militias again
Apparent U.S. strike in Baghdad raises specter of wider regional war (msn.com)
When Tyler and TMI say that Biden is “sitting back and taking it” they are not being honest.
US thumps Iran militias again
Apparent U.S. strike in Baghdad raises specter of wider regional war (msn.com)
When Tyler and TMI say that Biden is “sitting back and taking it” they are not being honest.
Tail wagging the dog time?
The region is getting a bit complex as the area and number of players expands. Reading the online comments posted to the linked article shows them to be all over the map. Is it a stretch to think that there has been some coordination, planning and timing beyond the usual appropriate response- in-kind counterattack? The Hamas defense minister gets taken out in Lebanon after, or as, significant IDF troops are being pulled out of Gaza. And then we attack some Iranian factions in Baghdad. There is a dare being delivered to Iran that we are prepared to engage should they carry things further. I have heard reports that the Lebanese people, who do exert some influence over Hezbollah, beyond that exerted by the Gazans, over Hamas are not wont to expand the war into their territory.
The Islamic State group has claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings targeting a commemoration for an Iranian general slain in a 2020 US drone strike, the worst militant attack to strike Iran in decades as the wider Middle East remains on edge
.
Any guesses?
Israel paid an Iranian dissident group to do some things to hurt Revolutionary Guard types? I imagine high level RG types would be at the memorial.
Israel recently openly struck into Lebanon. So there is some evidence their eyeballs are starting to drift outside Israeli borders.
</tinfoil hat>
Its a good guess. From what I have heard, Israel is the #1 suspect. Lets face it, Iran keeps threatening Israel but hasn’t done a thing. Just empty threats. Meanwhile, Israel openly bombing and assassinating its enemies without them doing much of anything in retaliation. They all know that if they respond with some sort of missile strike, Israel will escalate and respond with an even bigger strike.
Netanyahu of course is desperate to stay in power and maintain the War Cabinet, keep the conflict going. Get the US involved even. So I suspect Israel is now becoming even more daring in trying to get Iran to directly attack Israel. I doubt the Saudis, ISIS or Iranian dissidents have anything to gain from this sort of attack. However, it does seem odd for Israel to launch this sort of attack unless it was trying to target a specific person.
Seems you may have to re-evaluate your sources, unless Israel paid ISIS to get this done.