Sadly, it’s all playing out along familiar lines.
This latest flare-up follows the same pattern we’ve seen for years. A major terrorist attack in Kashmir prompts an Indian military response; Pakistan retaliates, diplomatically or militarily, citing sovereignty and civilian casualties. What follows is a fairly well-rehearsed cycle of escalation, which is mostly theatre for domestic audiences on both sides.
Short-term escalation seems inevitable. The real danger lies in a miscalculation. With both sides edging right up to their red lines, it wouldn’t take much for things to spiral.
This is the stability–instability paradox in plain sight: nuclear weapons deter full-scale war, but that same deterrent makes limited skirmishes more likely. Each side feels emboldened to act, assuming the other won’t push it too far.
One area that might offer a way forward is water security. The Indus system is under pressure from climate change, and both countries depend on it. If there’s a chance for cooperation, assuming they can keep the politics out of it…
But nothing ever seems to properly reset; just another uneasy pause before the next round.