So whats up there? Another big war? Small war? Just another we attack, they attack then we all cool off?
Been reading on and off in the papers about their issues. Will it escalate? Any red lines?
Thoughts?
Sadly, it’s all playing out along familiar lines.
This latest flare-up follows the same pattern we’ve seen for years. A major terrorist attack in Kashmir prompts an Indian military response; Pakistan retaliates, diplomatically or militarily, citing sovereignty and civilian casualties. What follows is a fairly well-rehearsed cycle of escalation, which is mostly theatre for domestic audiences on both sides.
Short-term escalation seems inevitable. The real danger lies in a miscalculation. With both sides edging right up to their red lines, it wouldn’t take much for things to spiral.
This is the stability–instability paradox in plain sight: nuclear weapons deter full-scale war, but that same deterrent makes limited skirmishes more likely. Each side feels emboldened to act, assuming the other won’t push it too far.
One area that might offer a way forward is water security. The Indus system is under pressure from climate change, and both countries depend on it. If there’s a chance for cooperation, assuming they can keep the politics out of it…
But nothing ever seems to properly reset; just another uneasy pause before the next round.
Now is when you should start worrying
Missle strikes on Pakistani airbases outside of Kashmir