IMLP Statistics

Triathlon Forum
1

I put this together for another thread, but it was interesting, so I thought I would make a new thread.

Here are the stats for men at IMLP

Average time 12:57

Median time 12:47

Standard deviation: 1:40

Number of finishers 1433

That puts 11:17 as one standard deviation above average, so 10:00 hours is closer to 2 standard deviations above (i.e top 1%) the mean.

However, if you plotted this data for men under 40, you would get a better idea of possible results based on average genetic ability. Results for men over 40 are probably skewed based on the effect of aging. The reason men in the 40 still perform very well, is not because they do not feel the effect so aging, it just shows that younger men have not put in sufficient training to develop the endurance capacity they have. Forget the obligatory post about Joe Bonness, he is an outlier and any statistician with any credibility would throw him out of the sample population).

I don’t know how to put a histogram here, but I plotted one. It is sort of normal, but definitely skewed toward the slower times.

Also note if you looked at data from a race like Australia that has a qualification process and a 15:00 cutoff I think you would have a more valid sample. IMNA races has a lot more “finishers”, Australia gets more “racers”. It is also difficult to draw too many conclusions about genetic ability, because even the most talented athletes take years of training to be successful at ultra events. That is why the Australia data is better, because I don’t think the athletes are more talented, but they have made more of an effort to develop their talent, so are more representative of what is possible, not what is.

2

Interesting post, but I’ve got one little nit…two standard deviations catches ~95%, 3 standard deviations is ~99%.

3

http://tinypic.com/jl33lv.gif+2 +2 sigma…97.7%

+3 sigma…99.9%
.

4

Cool, I am above average
.

5

I believe “normal” is considered between 25 and 75 percentile. So if you’re above the 75th percentile you are above “normal”.

6

I believe “normal” is considered between 25 and 75 percentile. So if you’re above the 75th percentile you are above “normal”.
I like how you put the quotation marks around normal. After all, normal and ironman don’t usually go together.

7

and the point is??? what a waste of time…

8

and the point is??? what a waste of time…
Not any more of a waste of time than reading your worthless post and replying to it.

9

2 standard deviations is 95%, but the other 5% is usually distributed equally on the two sides that are outside the middle 95%. So, it would be top 2.5% (or bottom 2.5%, as the case may be).

“standard deviation” is also an oxymoron, but that’s another story.

10

Just printed out your post to show to the 7th grade math students I work with who insist that they will never have to know how to make a histogram, or know the meaning of the words mean, outlier etc. Thanks!