I do believe the year LP won IMWC, where she did 9 races, 2 were post Nice T-100 races where she showed up to fulfill as much of her contract as possible
she only did one one IM or Roth before Nice and I doubt she was peaking for any of the T-100 races prior to Nice, if anything I believe she started her season late as well
If KB shows up at LP gunning for the win, I wonât rate him the favourite for Kona. 4 IMs is lot of racing
I guess overall there is a clear system when you are young and dont have a lot of sponsors that actually pay you , you have to race a lot , the more cash sponsors you get the smarter it gets to race less and win the big races. and there is not many people that can do it , somebody said 10 it is likely a few more but not ,many more.
Like last year with the top 2 ladies imploding just miles from the finish line in Kona?? I agree it is really Solveigâs to lose this year, but the mens is a little more in play. Blu is of course the favorite, but he already had one bad race, and he 50% in Kona, either blasting it or coming in with the you tubersâŚ
Kat doing another ironman instead of Roth could have made it super tight, but doesnât seem like that is in the cards for her, different mindset from BluâŚ.
I believe Blummenfeltâs said he âmightâ race IMLP to discard the losses at IMNZ.
Everyone would advise him against that. He has his third full of the season at Roth where thereâs every chance heâll have to dig deep to catch and beat Laidlow who will gap him on the bike. He knows Laidlow can run 2:37 here.
A fortnight later: IMLP.
Having said that, he may reckon that racing IMLP will produce 5000 or near without going to the well. Foley and MvR just two who will be there to keep him honest.
Blummenfeltâs challenge is: how much does he want to beat Stornes and indeed Foley and MvR, in the IM Pro Series. His schedule already had a risky four fulls (3 x IMPS plus Roth). Without an IMLP score, and with a podium finish in Frankfurt for Stornes, Blummenfelt will go into Nice and Kona with an effective deficit of just over 10 minutes. Does he feel lucky or greedy? To what extent would IMLP three months before Kona really affect the price of lava bread?
I think KB is gonna have his hands full in Roth. Front group is Bogen, Laidlow, Koolhaas, Schomburg, Hogenhaug, Funk all at the front.
Would KB not be a better swimmer than Funk? Or are we assuming Funk gets his own personal moto to the front 
Thatâs what I meant by âhaving to dig deepâ - sorry not clear.
Off topic
Wrt âfront groupâ four out of six ainât bad: Høgenhaug and Funk will not be near the front for the first hour but perhaps they can offer Blummenfelt a âliftâ. Iâd add Riddle to make a front pack of 5 which I do think will clear off and I reckon they will put time into Funk.
Funk was out the water 3 seconds ahead of KB in a wetsuit swim in New Zealand. I think in a non wetsuit swim it will be more.
I dont think Jamie is racing. That would be 3 weeks in a row. Elsinore, Frankfurt, Roth.
Youâre right: I was confused.
Good luck to Riddle in Frankfurtâs fierce midday heat dome.
On FF in Roth Iâm just asserting that, like Blummenfelt and Hoegenhaug, he wonât be in your âfront bike groupâ for some time, if ever. Every one of those 4 has a motive to push and at least 2 (Laidlow and Bogen) have the ability to take the lionâs share of the work.
In Roth Blummenfelt will be delighted to have the company of Funk and Hoegenhaug.
MVR and Stornes could definitely make the menâs interesting.
MVR hasnât indicated he is doing LP, has he?
We are just assuming? He could head straight to Nice and Kona? And maybe a year end race ?
MvR confirmed in his winnerâs interview with Tim Don that he is deliberately racing IMLP next month to have two full and this 2500 to set him up for beating Stornes and Blummenfelt.
If Blummenfelt does not bounce from a hard Roth to IMLP (to try to make up for his IMNZ fail) and MvR races to form in Lake Placid, the latter will go into Nice and Kona with >10 minutes âspareâ. Stornes will be four minutes behind MvR (depends on how well Stornes goes in Frankfurt obv). Foley (again depends on a great IMLP) may actually be in the box seat ahead of MvR come Nice.
But think itâs fair to say that Foley will surely leak 15 minutes to all those three (never raced Nice and never started the Kona run). In that vein note that MvR and Stornes will be racing Kona for the first time, so all three (not KB) will be running into the âunknownâ.
Would be really surprised if Funk is in the lead pack after the swim in Roth.
I think that Mika Noodt said in a German podcast as well that KB is doing Lake Placid when they talked about Roth. But maybe that was just an assumption based on the same interviews.
thereâs a big IF, considering they have both only done 1 70.3 and 1 fullâŚ
Well let me put it this way:
In whose shoes would you rather be NOW. Blummenfelt having to carry a loss of 858, or either of those [Stornes and MvR] as they prepare for their second IM, Frankfurt and IMLP respectively. Neither need to win, though that would be nice. They will both (as will Foley maybe less so) confident of winning or close.
From Blummenfeltâs IM Pro Series PoV itâs a âno brainerâ: he has to discard IMNZ by racing IMLP or he will lose, probably come #3 (losing $115k!). But how will that affect his Kona, which would be his fifth full distance. Noone has won Kona having raced 4 fulls in the season before October (Iâm guessing here: prove me wrong.)
Oh no I donât think he will be in the lead pack. But I do think he will be ahead of KB
MVR confirmed in an interview with me after IMTX his plans were Elsinore and placid.
What makes you assume t foley is going to âleak 15 minâ?