I imagine he’ll be right near the top of the year end rankings so probably a very good bet that he’ll line up in Taupo. I also think he’ll be paid a pretty decent fee to line up at Roth.
I imagine he’ll be right near the top of the year end rankings so probably a very good bet that he’ll line up in Taupo. I also think he’ll be paid a pretty decent fee to line up at Roth.
Frankfurt AND Roth seems unlikely.
Interesting post from Lange.
Laidlow basically said exactly the same thing, that his objective was Kona, but that he was racing PTO.
I imagine he’ll be right near the top of the year end rankings so probably a very good bet that he’ll line up in Taupo. I also think he’ll be paid a pretty decent fee to line up at Roth.Frankfurt AND Roth seems unlikely.Frankfurt (18 Aug) and Roth (7 Jul): doable but. He wants to win:
- IMWC
- IM Series (3 IMs plus two 70.3 results required
He must race an IM between Texas (end April) and Kona (late October). Lange never races more than 5 times a year with 3 IM distance races.
Also think that Lange is likely to try to go to Kona with 4 good scores. A good race there (doesn’t have to win) will win him the IM Series. And give Taupo a miss. Against that he often races late in the year so maybe Taupo fits that (eg Israel, Portugal). Difficult to see him scoring well there with Wilde, van Riel (a couple of the French) and West firing on all cylinders. Close to a win in a ‘regular season’ season 70.3 (without all the T100 et al top shots there) will score the same as a top 10 (9 minutes back) in 70.3WC.
Also Lange has a challenge on his hands to get a Taupo start slot at Oceanside (only 3 available) so he will need to race another 70.3 (before 30 June) to get one.
As I said back in October when the IM Series was announced (with T100 in the wings): Challenge Roth risks being a serious loser. Having already (and deliberately) validated I expect Ditlev will race it (7 July) after Escape from Alcatraz 100 on 8 June and before London T100 in late July.
Two months on!
I would think he would be doing Taupo too? He is one guy at the top perhaps of getting that big year end bonus, would think his 2nd half would be the bigger point one. What am I missing here?I imagine he’ll be right near the top of the year end rankings so probably a very good bet that he’ll line up in Taupo. I also think he’ll be paid a pretty decent fee to line up at Roth.Frankfurt AND Roth seems unlikely.
https://triathlon.de/...terfeld-profi-manner
https://www.tri247.com/...mens-field-announced
The other bit you may be missing is that Lange needs to earn a slot to race Taupo, and he won’t be able to finish high enough in any of the May/June IM Pro Series 70.3s to do so. So he can just truck with Oceanside plus one (Les Sables neatly fits in between Roth and Hamburg). Or plan to race Busselton in December when all the good boys are drawing breath after the GF and/or before Taupo.
My big question now is does Sam start thinking about the Ironman series?? . . . I mean he probably cannot win the thing, but with one, maybe two fulls, well it could be possible to podium?? He could still get some good $$ for doing 5 half’s at this level too, especially with a great worlds performance at the end. Has to be entering his mind I bet, so perhaps a full will suddenly appear on the horizon after a little break now for a good training bloc…I chatted with Sam at Eric Wynn’s ST get together BBQ in St. George. It “sounds” like Sam may be contemplating a full IM this summer some time. He mentioned Penticton being an optionPenticton isn’t an IM Pro Series race.
I’d be surprised if he chose to race an IM just ‘for fun’: to be meaningful surely he would want to race a stacked field? And racing anywhere except an IM Pro Series race will be a ‘B’ field (racing one would take prize money from the the neo-pros who need it).
Long’s two top 70.3s plus 2700+ points at Taupo means he could rack up 12000 points with two more 70.3s.
With his contracted T100 events, whilst he needs to race 3 more times, plus GF, he only needs one more podium in the regular season races. That determines when he might slot in an IM (or heaven help us two IMs) or two more 70.3s, or one of each.
So which T100 offers his best chance of good points? Probably not SF with its swim and climbing, and van Riel there btw.
London looks good with Ibiza a possible, but with an enhanced level of post Olympic competition. Las Vegas will lose all the Kona bound athletes but that’ll mean a wedge of wildcard weapons to beat. So let’s target London (end July) with Las Vegas as the standby, and Dubai as the kick return.
He has multiple North American 70.3s to choose from in the next 7 weeks so that’s not a determining factor. But IMs?
If only one then IMLP is the obvious choice (21 July) but that would mean shelving London as a T100 ‘top finish’ counter.
Frankfurt on 18 August is another, but likely the winner there will be further ahead, and ‘every second counts’. And he doesn’t travel well. Doesn’t clash with anything, though.
The numbers (tl;dr probably not worth it):
A set of five scores, including one good (for him) IM raises the IM Pro Series potential score to 14,500 which will be top 10 (my estimate) and remember #8 only pays $20k.
But an athlete (already KQ) who places average #20 when completing two IMs plus Kona (30 minutes down in all three) plus a couple of 70.3s (15 minutes down x 2), scores 13,800.
The max possible score (Ryf 2018 dominance) is 21,500. We might expect Lange to score about 19,000 points (now on 6519, +4800 (Frankfurt), +1900 (10 mins down in a second 70.3), +5800 (Kona)) and not go to Taupo (he has no slot nor likely to get). Who else, as a benchmark for whether it’s worth Long trying to score 5 times?
We might expect Mignon to score over 18,000 points (now on 4641, +4400 (Frankfurt), +4000 (two 70.3s), +5400 (Kona)) and not go to Taupo (I note Mlle Pierré also hasn’t a Taupo start and has all the T100 races to attend).
I assume Blummenfelt is going to validate his AQ for Taupo after Cagliari (guess a gentle training day @ Les Sables) so he with only four races could score 15,300 (2000+4700(Frankfurt)+5800(Kona)+2800(Taupo))
Of course the current IM Pro Series standings include only NA races (x 3) and the European contenders have IM Vitoria and IM Frankfurt to show their cards before Kona. So we have a skewed insight to the likely players.
I think you are right in that he is not doing a non series ironman, unless he is just not going to chase that series and wants to do a race for shits and giggles. Now as fans of the sport, we all hope he figures out a way to shoe horn in at least one series ironman, then perhaps the WC for a big score.
He is on fire now and not showing any signs of breaking down in this first part of a very busy season for him. SO in his coaches mind, probably thinks he can do more than what was planned before it all started, just the way we athletes think. Strike while the iron is hot, until it is not…
On insta Matthews has shared that she’ll be racing IM Hamburg in early June (for her second IM of the series) and then (assumed) flying direct to California to race T100 6 days later. Wrecked (contracted, but iconic tri venue must be a pull, and has already missed Singapore).
https://www.tri247.com/triathlon-news/kat-matthews-ironman-pro-series-t100-triathlon-world-tour-2
We don’t know who else might be on the start list for Hamburg. Haug has still to validate so assume her for a home race.
Will Langridge be there? Assume Slater and Wilms will both be racing Cairns as their second IM.
Philipp and Norden are racing Roth (a month later) with the latter already IMWCQ and Philipp validating with a finish in Mallorca this weekend. Sodaro, Lee, Visser and Moench are already validated/qualified.
2024 Qatar Airways IRONMAN 70.3 Chattanooga
starting list is out. And it will be quite easier to get points when none of the main players is around ! As previously stated, i feel there are way more high level athletes in Europe than in N. America. Heck there were only 4 North Americans in the top 10 in St George whereas only Deisher and Mantell will cross the pond to race in Mallorca and only Bradley Weiss will come from ZAF . It will also be easier for Hanson, Marquardt and Leiferman to get a Taupo slot than for Lange and Skipper.
,
Several other starting lists are out : Brazil, Aix, Kraichgau, Lanza
several quick takes: it will also be easier to get a slot in Brazil, only 9 starters all coming from Latin America compared to 47 in Lanza (with a SOF above 77)
Aix a bronze tier race only offering 1 slot and a tiny 20K prize purse will have Svenningson, Chevrot, Gulloux and Magnien who won last year running a 1.07
On insta Matthews has shared that she’ll be racing IM Hamburg in early June (for her second IM of the series) and then (assumed) flying direct to California to race T100 6 days later. Wrecked (contracted, but iconic tri venue must be a pull, and has already missed Singapore).
We don’t know who else might be on the start list for Hamburg. Haug has still to validate so assume her for a home race.
Will Langridge be there? Assume Slater and Wilms will both be racing Cairns as their second IM.
Philipp and Norden are racing Roth (a month later) with the latter already IMWCQ and Philipp validating with a finish in Mallorca this weekend. Sodaro, Lee, Visser and Moench are already validated/qualified.
Haug will racing Lanzarote. Small surprise but she always said that is like “home for herâ€
That’s her validation so looks like no German races for her which is unusual given they usually love racing at home and I would suspect their sponsors expect them too
On insta Matthews has shared that she’ll be racing IM Hamburg in early June Haug will racing Lanzarote. Small surprise but she always said that is like “home for herâ€
That’s her validation so looks like no German races for her which is unusual given they usually love racing at home and I would suspect their sponsors expect them tooThree weeks on . . .
Haug has validated her AQ in Lanzarote. So now all the main players for Nice (all T100 contracted) have slots (excludes those choosing not to race there for Olympic or T100 reasons). Moench clearly won’t be racing: she has more important business in her fall.
The Hamburg start list for Sunday includes: Matthews, Stage Neilsen, Bleymehl, (intriguingly) Hering, Visser, Jansen, Svensk, Ryter. SOF of 84 (NB higher than Texas) and many are already IMWCQ so the 6 slots will roll down a long way.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/...rg/2024/participants
https://proseries.ironman.com/stories/field-producers-tip-sheet-hamburg
It’s the second of the IM Pro Series full distance races.
Finishers on Sunday will dominate the Series standings. After Cairns in a fortnight, Slater, Wilms, Berry and Simpson should join them in the top 10.
https://proseries.ironman.com/standings
An athlete who races 3 IMs (including Nice) and 2 x 70.3s finishing #10 (say) 27/13 minutes down on the winner will score 13,000 points. Pallant-Browne can score max 13,000 points if she wins another two 70.3s plus Taupo.
This sort of calculus can be read across to Long (who races IM Cairns and then hopes to finish Kona; and then Taupo (with T100s as a minor distraction)) and his likely final standing against Lange/Hanson/Rodriguez who will race 3 IMs (including Kona) and 2 x 70.3s.
Another factor is who will qualify for both WC - with more points-
So far 10 men are qualified which makes the following more likely to win the Series
Rodriguez, Hanson, Wilkowiecki, Heemeryck, M. Weiss, Amorelli, Hamilton (NZ), Mc Kenna, Thompson (AUS) and Heldoorn (NL) Among those aiming at the Series, a few are qualified for Taupo but not yet for Kona : Currie, Long, Sanders, Costes, Lopes, Riele and Barnaby are the names being the most likely to be contenders.
As alluded in another post, i feel all the 70.3 races counting for the Series should grant Taupo Slots for the end of the year because as it stands the 4 US races will allow racers to qualify whereas the 2 last europeans races will not. And the level is significantly higher in Europe than in N. America. Long and Sanders are world level athletes and Marquardt seem to be able to become a star but the drop is quite steep after those. Costes was able to get some points because he went to race in N. Am, Wilkowiecki qualified in St Georges but for others like Schuster or Lange it is almost impossible to qualify in Europe with so many high level athletes. Heck who knew of Mann before he won Mallorca! Germans have a whole generation of younger athletes on the 70.3 front after an aging generation on the full IM.
** but for others like Schuster or Lange it is almost impossible to qualify in Europe with so many high level athletes//**
Well Lange did the supposedly weak oceanside race, where he got 17th. I think you will find quality of fields in the 70.3’s pretty high everywhere in the world. Jut a lot of travelling athletes going against the locals who can drive there, or take a short flight…
Heck who knew of Mann before he won Mallorca!
Can you elaborate why you believe someone hardly anyone has heard of winning a major 70.3 is evidence that the level in Europe is much higher than America? It’s not obvious to me.
Another factor is who will qualify for both WC - with more points-
So far 10 men are qualified which makes the following more likely to win the Series
Rodriguez, Hanson, Wilkowiecki, Heemeryck, M. Weiss, Amorelli, Hamilton (NZ), Mc Kenna, Thompson (AUS) and Heldoorn (NL) Among those aiming at the Series, a few are qualified for Taupo but not yet for Kona : Currie, Long, Sanders, Costes, Lopes, Riele and Barnaby are the names being the most likely to be contenders.
As alluded in another post, I feel all the 70.3 races counting for the Series should grant Taupo Slots for the end of the year because as it stands the 4 US races will allow racers to qualify whereas the 2 last European races will not.Interesting analysis (first part). However I suggest that your estimate that athletes who have already qualified for both Kona/Nice and Taupo are “more likely to win the Series” is true but that’s because they are the better athletes who have planned their season rather than because they have a Taupo slot (maybe you said/meant this).
Taupo only offers 500 points more to the winner and except for maybe Long, Sanders and Heemeryck I reckon others will score almost as well in one of the regular 70.3s. With the front end of Taupo being extremely competitive (Wilde, Bergère, Geens, Stornes, Stapley, Holm, plus most of the T100 top 10) 8:20 down is that 500 points. If athletes want to make Taupo they need to go a race any old 70.3 by 30 June - doesn’t have to be a Series one - in fact the strong full but average middle (eg Lange at present)) is more likely to actually get a Taupo slot there.
A key predictor of top 10 ‘success’ is whether an athlete (who needs to be of sufficient calibre obv) has a programme to race two IMs plus Nice/Kona.
My expectation is that Lange will win the Men’s without competing in New Zealand.
The women on the other hand, will go down to the wire.
I agree with you that Tallinn and Zell-am-See should offer Taupo slots (or at least the option, rather than Marbella): let’s face it that’s 15 weeks later.
From Ironman’s PoV though, the challenge would be that there would be too many athletes for Taupo (already 77 WPros on the list) and the knock on effect of being a smaller set for Marbella (which, I judge, with be weakened by its proximity to Kona and maybe ‘fatally’ by two T100 2025 races which will surely be scheduled on that weekend (8-9 November) or within 14 days. The top athletes will be all in on the T100 next November, whereas at least this year they have a fortnight between the T100 Grand Finale in Noname, and Taupo.
“Among those aiming at the Series, a few are qualified for Taupo but not yet for Kona : Currie, Long, Sanders, Costes, Lopes, Riele and Barnaby are the names being the most likely to be contenders.”
Apart from Long (with Cairns plus Kona) and Sanders with (assumed) IMLP plus Kona can’t see the rest contending. Currie’s DNF (coming down late from altitude?) means he’ll need to do Cairns and then another (?Frankfurt or IMLP) before Kona to make a realistic challenge.
To me, it is quite obvious : In Mallorca Mann who was ranked 20th by triraring before the race won the 70.3 with the highest SOF 90.11 whereas in N. American races there are no dark horses but only known contenders. Long and Sanders are top contenders, then you’ve got Dubrick and Laundry but after the drop is quite steep. I feel that Hanson was a bit lucky not to have to race against European athletes.
In Europe, the density of top athletes is quite higher, Bogen, Mann, Keulen, Stratmann or Margirier are names that nobody knew before last year. It also show in The Championship races: this year Dubrick finished 20th and Chase 24th. Last year Hanson finished 19th.
To Monty, i can also point that though Lange finished 16th in Oceanside, 3 europeans were ahead -Geens, Sperl (another european finding it easier to get success across the pond), Skipper and Currie is from NZ and Scarabigno and Zorgnotti are also not from N. Am. No N. American factor in the European races and only a handfull could.
I checked and it’s even worse, there are 5 70.3 Pro IM Series in N. American, all giving slots for Taupo and only 4 in Europe, 2 with Taupo slots. And the 2 last races Tallin and Zell am See are 1 and 2 weeks after Frankfurt which will make it hard for those racing there to do (well in) both.
It is true that there are many silver/bronze level races in Europe but when you look at 70. 3 Switzerland this weekend you have 2 slots with Baekkegard , Keulen racing, and Svenningsson plus 5 who are already TQ fighting for a 20 K purse…
Your point is right but it also gives them the possibility to jump ahead at the last minute whereas Lange could only race 70.3 Western Australia if he really need points after Kona.
I see Rodriguez as a dark horse as the Kona heat should not be a problem for him and he was impressive in Texas.
Yet i really cannot understand why Rodriguez, Lange and Mignon are racing Roth when they still have 2 other IM to race…
i think Hogenhaug and Zepunkte who recently qualified (the latter training with Kyle Smith) for Taupo may also factor if they race 2 IM in the summer.
I would put some respect on Hanson’s name. Sub-70 half in the heat is no joke. Course selection matters. Chattanooga isn’t a course where you can bike away from everyone else.
Would argue that Mann was obviously a lot better than his ranking & that injuries held back his development last year. Would also argue that a lot of non-US athletes have been struggling in the North American races. Sperl was 5th in Oceanside/7th in St. George. Still getting beat by Sanders/Long. Sam walked everyone in St. George. Geens didn’t have the firepower to compete up front @ Oceanside. Same with Currie/Lange/Skipper. Idk I feel like it’s a little overblown when the Europeans trash American 70.3 racing. Come over & beat Sam/Lionel then.
But, at the same time, totally valid re slots & prize money. Will never disagree with anyone on those points. 70.3 Switzerland is too good to only offer $20k. In fact, no race should be offering that. Let’s get every race paying down to at least 10-15 deep & let’s get the last money spot up to a # that you could try to live off of – something that at least covers flight/lodging. I think IM qualifying should expand the way the Challenge Championship is set up. Let some big races auto qualify top athletes who just need to validate. They’re forcing top athletes to race a lot, which could leave them overtrained/overraced heading into a World Championship.
They’re forcing top athletes to race a lot, which could leave them overtrained/overraced heading into a World Championship.//
No they are not, it is the athlete choosing to overrace. Both the big series have set it up so that there is little room “outside” their requirements to do other stuff. Some athletes are just tough and can manage it fine. But if you only do one or the other series, the number of races is reasonable. The big problem comes when athletes want to race outside, as they should because there is great money out there outside of the individual series.
The whole point for the orgs to offer up so much series prize money is to actually get the best athletes to be in their series, and once in they do what they can to lock them in. Totally understandable too if you think about it. They are not in the business to help the other big races or series, so each has their subtle way to quietly force many to choose them…
I’m just gland that both left room for many to race outside and still be competitive. It is not impossible to do well at both, see Sam Long. And it is quite possible someone like Knibb will do well at all 3 series, and that is mind blowing, and maybe throw in a cycling olympic medal to boot!!!
They’re forcing top athletes to race a lot, which could leave them overtrained/overraced heading into a World Championship.//
No they are not, it is the athlete choosing to overrace. **Both the big series have set it up so that there is little room “outside” their **requirements to do other stuff. Some athletes are just tough and can manage it fine. But if you only do one or the other series, the number of races is reasonable. The big problem comes when athletes want to race outside, as they should because there is great money out there outside of the individual series.
I’m just glad that both left room for many to race outside and still be competitive. It is not impossible to do well at both, see Sam Long. And it is quite possible someone like Knibb will do well at all 3 series, and that is mind blowing, and maybe throw in a cycling olympic medal to boot!!Agree: the opportunity’s there: it’s up to each athlete.
Katrina Matthews: “There are still some question marks about my run” | Ironman Hamburg 2024
But, addressing “could leave them overtrained/overraced” I don’t think the necessary/contracted race programme prevents athletes preparing really well for Nice/Kona.
Women: Race London, then clear till Nice (8 weeks later). Ibiza for the warm down.
Men: Race Ibiza, get back to hot and humid, race Kona (4 weeks later, having missed Las Vegas).
Men: Choose to race Frankfurt <6 weeks> Ibiza: carry on.
As for Taupo, Ironman style it a WC but the T100 GF is effectively the key MD race for the top athletes. Taupo offers those who have had to focus on Paris a chance to shine.
Someone like Lange has chosen to concentrate on the IM Series with IMWC as an essential element/scoring race: he chose not to contract to T100 (and given his half distance weakness; entirely sensibly) but has added in Roth. His 2024 schedule is ‘normal’ for him and definitely not “over-racing”.
Many others (M and W) have chosen T100 plus a validation/IMWCQ race, plus Nice/Kona. Six 100km races plus two IMs. They are not doing the IM Pro Series.
Yet others have added Roth to that mix, with Ditlev doing so most sensibly by validating before Christmas and Philipp going for the ‘two 70.3s’ option.
Seems to me that it’s only Matthews racing T100 and seeking to race/win five IM Pro Series (3 x IM, 2 x 70.3: Texas(Apr), Hamburg(Jun)), Tallinn(Aug), Nice(Sep), Taupo(Dec)). T100s for training, hopefully with no more calf pulls/tears.
Long seems to have been tempted by Eve’s apple: we will see what two IMs and three 70.3s harvests: should make top 5 IM Pro Series (Oceanside, St George, Cairns, Kona, Taupo)). Can’t help thinking that those extra races will be to the detriment of a top performance in the T100 GF and overall, and also challenging for the 70.3WC win in Taupo (perhaps he’s written that off given Wilde and the boyos will be there).
Blummenfelt is all in for the Olympics, then Frankfurt to validate, then Kona, with maybe a T100 regular season wildcard. He won’t get to Taupo with an earned slot (window closes 30 June) unless he breaks his Paris focus, or gives it up (going ftw that is) as a bad job.
Knibb can’t “do well at all 3 series”. After Paris, and whatever that brings) she can win the T100 tour and will be a favourite for Taupo, but that’s it (a quality ‘it’ plural). Four races in 8 weeks (LV, Dubai, Noname, Taupo). Surprised after her great race in Yokohama she didn’t replicate that in Sardinia: maybe deliberately eased off on the bike in Japan and tested the opposite option at Cagliari, to see the effect on her run. Or maybe racing with only a fortnight gap was too tight for her - in which case <We’ll see> in November.
IM Hamburg, the second of the full distance races in the Series has started.
https://proseries.ironman.com/races/im-hamburg
Good luck to the commentators (Dede and Sid) - a hard task.
https://www.tri247.com/triathlon-news/elite/ironman-european-championship-hamburg-start-list-bib-numbers