correct me if im wrong, but the positive in all of this, is that you can train your body to get to near V02 and sustain it for longer. Joe Blow may have a higher V02 than me, but due to my training, I may be able to hold a higher V02 for a longer duration than him.
Correct, training does affect near-VO2max performances. This is what OP is addressing when he says, ‘whether it affects performance or not.’ The idea is just what you described. VO2max is an interesting thing physiologically. Most of the time, as you increase gradually, the body responds gradually. There are a few significant exceptions, and they’re obvious enough that you already know them: lactate threshold and ventilatory threshold, for example. VO2max is similar is that you can do a lot of high-intensity intervals without hitting that VO2max. You’ll get some training benefit from that, but you won’t be pushing VO2max as far as you can until you’re doing true VO2max training.
Keep in mind that a very well trained triathlete can have an FTP close to 90% of VO2max. Theoretically, that person could have a low VO2 max because it is untrained. However, that person will probably not be that well trained without high-intensity work.
Secondly, while performance (i.e. race times) can increase at a pretty steady rate for years, does vo2 max also steadily increase over this time period at a steady rate? Or will you top out your vo2 max well before you top out actual performance?
I think you nailed it. Reaching potential VO2max requires a lot of very specific training that a triathlete is unlikely to do (since most of their racing will be at, say, 80-85% of VO2max). Interestingly, one of the biggest training adaptations that occurs with VO2 max training is adaptation of the intercostal (rib) muscles. As your breathing rate increases, the rib muscles’ energetic needs increase exponentially. At a VO2 max effort, they can use a full 15% of VO2.
Short answer: yes, VO2max is probably highly trainable for your average triathlete. Remember that as you get older, VO2max will decrease steadily, but sub-VO2max ability decrease at a much lower rate.