The goal of the Ironman is to finish under 17:00:00 hours but some people go faster… a lot faster:
Luc Van Lierde went 7:50:27 in 1997 at Roth, he also swam 44:51 at that race. Jurgan Zack biked 4:14:18 again at Roth in 1999 and, Peter Reid ran 2:35:21 at Ironman Austria in 1999. I haven’t heard of a faster splits than these, have you? Using those splits thats close to a sub 7:30:00 Ironman!!!
Mr Lierde was also at it in Hawaii 1n 1996 when he went 8:04:08 including 3 minutes in the sin bin! Lars Johanssen swam a 46:44 their in 1995, Thomas Hellriegal cycled his way to a 4:24:50 in 1996 and Mark Allan ran a 2:40:04 in 1989. So how fast can we go?
Well I don’t believe anybody but a swim specialist can better Lars time, so I predict a winning race best of 48 mins for this discipline. I think the bike can go quite a bit faster. Steve Larsen did a 4:33:51 in 2001 a year that the wind stopped all but 10 finishers going sub 5 hours. I believe a 4:20 is possible. And the run, again I think faster is possible for an awsome cyclist, yes cyclist. 2:40 isn’t a really fast marathon time, I can run a 2:40 fresh, we are all just tired from the bike. A good runner could go 2:37 if they get of the bike fresher.
So I make a bold prediction that a sub 7:45 Ironman will be won in Hawaii in the next 3 or 4 years if the Gods provide favorable race conditions on the day.
Yesterday during a long run I was thinking about that.
-No one has gone sub 8:00 since 1999. I wonder why?
I think three people have gone sub 8:00 twice, Jurgen Zach, Lothar Leder and some belgian fella I think- not LVL? Does that sound right, I am doing this all from memory.
With all the tactical racing going on I think it will take a remarkable set of circumstances to push the pace that fast. Racers tend to key off each other rather than through it down for the record.
It may be a while before we see 7:45, or even sub 8:00 in Hawaii.
What if WTC gives up on policing the drafting on the bike and makes the race draft legal? A pack of strong cyclists could easily go under 4:20 and then the smart guys sitting on would be pretty fresh for the run. Eventually you would see team tactics come into play where teams of strong swimmer/cyclists would launch their “runner” onto the marathon relatively fresh. Then you would see some crazy drops in times.
I think in the next 5-10 years their are going to be huge advances in legal and illegal supplements that all current records: track, triathlon, bike racing, etc., will be shattered. I also think most of these will be undetectable and we’re going to enter an age of the chemist being as important as the training. I don’t know what the record in Hawaii will be but I think a sub-7:30 will happen within 7 yrs. if not sooner.
thats the thing, conditions would have to be absolutely perfect, which rarely happens, and the record setter would have to run a perfect race, in terms of pacing and nutrition, and be in peak shape (no colds or kidney stones). I would say the chances of perect conditions (overcast sky, no winds, or a shifting wind that is nothing going out, but tailwind back, and mild temps) is about 1:10 or worse, the chances of someone running the perfect race, 1:3 at best. Put them together, and maybe every thirty years, the conditions are right for an amazing time. I think we could be waiting a long time for splits like that.
I can’t factor in illegal substances, but them aside if Ironman became draft legal, (lets not go down that route I did once in this forum and got my head chewed off!), I would say a sub 7:30 would happen overnight.
well, bike racing has been doping for years, and many think its getting cleaner (mainly due to law enforcment stepping in) instead of the other way around. As for doping in triathlon, I dont know if there is enough money involved to make it worthwhile, its not really a spectator sport, its more of a participant sport, so the money for the pros isnt as high as it is in cycling, thus, less pressure to perform. The best in the sport arent “living like kings” for the rest of thier lives, so i doubt they would, or even could spend the money to dope. As for it finding its way down to amateurs, doping is too expensive for the averge guy (close to 100K a year for some drugs, EPO and HGH cost 10s of thousands), so i dont think it will ever affect things in my AG.
“too expensive for the averge guy (close to 100K a year for some drugs, EPO and HGH cost 10s of thousands), so i dont think it will ever affect things in my AG.”
Thats interesting since some age groupers have more money that the pro’s. Just check the bike racks at any major tri. Custom painted Trek Postal TT bikes with painted HED 3’s Campty record carbon, Campy discs, etc.
I went to a well known sports medicine doctor in a really affluent part of the country a few years ago and we started talking about doping in sports. I told him it was a pro athlete problem and he said " no way, you would not believe the number of age group athletes who ask about aquiring performance enhancers" and he went on to say he could tell, from examining some of his clients, who was taking them and he said “it is way more than you would think”
"So I make a bold prediction that a sub 7:45 Ironman will be won in Hawaii in the next 3 or 4 years "
I’m in complete disagreement. Not unless some dashing daring fresh new face willing to take risks suddenly shows up and raises the bar. The top guys running now have all mostly been around for awhile and have peaked. None of them are willing to take chances. Look at last years 16 man “group ride”. Kona is starting to become a bit of a yawner.
The times have been getting slower over the past several years since 1999, not faster. Even in the bike splits there is not a top 10 time post 1996. There are no top 10 times overall or in any of the three individual disciplines in the 21st century.
The fans are “owed” a sub 8 hrs time but I’ll believe it only when I see it. Won’t be for awhile until that new face shows up.
So I make a bold prediction that a sub 7:45 Ironman will be won in Hawaii in the next 3 or 4 years if the Gods provide favorable race conditions on the day.
Not a chance. Too much is on the line for the top guys to risk it all simply to break a record. Records might be broken at other IMs, but not Kona. Same reason you’ll never see a WR in the Olympic marathon.
As for why nobody’s gone sub-8 in a while…it’s simple: WTC actually requires that courses be measured now. They didn’t used to, and courses were short. Most notorious among them, Roth’s bike course.
There is one other reason…but I’ll skip it because I don’t want to start another drug-use allegation war.
thats rediculous, i believe you, but still rediculous. I know i’ll never be a rpo, im in it to challenge myself. I love the epic nature of tris, the idea of conquering a personal everest, to do what so many brush off as impossible. For me, PEDs just take the magic away. Im sure they still work real hard, but buying speed like that goes against the conquer through determination mentality i find so important in triathlon. The fact that many AGs have more money than the pros just shows you how little pros get paid. I didnt think Ags would do it because there is no monetary return on investment. If a pro spends 100K to win a couple big IM, the sponsorships and prize money are more than the drugs, thus he makes money in the end, its just buisness. But an AGer just spends that money, and gets no return on investment, its not buisness, he’s just buying a PR, which i think is stupid (see above)
“if Ironman became draft legal… I would say a sub 7:30 would happen overnight.”
I disagree. IMH was essentially draft legal this year and the bike was not faster. Look at ITU draft legal times and you will see that they are often only averaging 40 kph versus 45 kph for non-draft legal. Draft legal usually means everybody bikes slow and looks at each other and hopes to bust a fast run.
**I would have an outside bet on somebody like Spencer Smith, Simon Lessing or Faris Al-Sultan doing it. **
Your exactly right. I think the only chance of seeing it happen is from a long shot. The serious contenders every year are going to race each other for the win, not for a record. Someone taking a flyer and holding on to the end is (IMHO) the only way anyone will go under 8:00 Chris
“There are no top 10 times overall or in any of the three individual disciplines in the 21st century.”
Didn’t the guy who won the swim last year post the second fastest time ever? I think he missed the record by something like 5 seconds.
If WTC would offer a bonus of say $100,000 for breaking the record I think we would see a much stronger effort to do so. As it now stands I don’t see any of the top guys getting even close.
“Didn’t the guy who won the swim last year post the second fastest time ever?”
Dunno. Might have happened. I’ve got the 25th anniversary book that has that info but wouldn’t include last year’s race. I do know that last year’s race didn’t get a top ten anywhere else.
Even a bonus of $100K for the record won’t work. What you need are primes for every guy that breaks the bike record. Let’s say $50K. So now 6-10 or so guys like Hellriegel, Zack, Stadler, Al Sultan, Macca, LVL, Reid, DeBoom etc etc all ride their pants off, and work together knowing that as a bare minimum they all net $50K even if they blow up. Then offer another $100K prime for anyone who runs sub 2:40. Basically, the run would be a drag race out of the chute if any of the guys hoped to do this and you know that there are enough guys who have run close to 2:40 in other Ironmans who will then try and give it a go.
Don’t forget, that when Hellriegel and Van Lierde went 8:04 and 8:06, they basically drag raced each other from the moment Hellriegel caught Van Lierde. This is what you need for a truly fast time.
Julian’s right, there has never REALLY been a sub-8, Roth is short and Austria the year Peter went fast was a short run.
Van der Marel’s time in Almere might be semi-legit, but I’ve heard he was 2m off the press truck.
The big prime idea would work, if a sponsor wanted to throw the money out (Ironman Cervelo Bike Prime, etc), as you can bet WTC won’t be doing it.
Remember, nobody rides that bike any faster than they think they have to. The scenario of a biker taking a flyer, and then hanging on for a good run split is about the only way under 8 (in perfect conditions).
I’m getting old, but I’ll see what I can do.
b