So with a new Kona record of 45,43, by an Australian and a Tasmanian no less, I wanted to see how this stacked up with other swim times in the pool at a variable of 1.3. I am not really 100% on numbers so please let me know if some of these stats are not quite right.
These are some freestyle figures backed out from the world record (male long course) in the pool at the same variable of 1.3 and 1.5
1.3 variable
Kona swim - 59,28
100 - 59
200 - 2,12
400 - 4,45
1500 - 18,51 (around 1,15 mid per 100
5KM (based on Paltrinier’s 5km PB) - 65,43. This works out to be on 1,18 high per 100
1.5 variable
Kona swim - 68,37
100 - 68
200 - 2,33
400 - 5,29
1500 - 21,45 (around 1,27 per 100)
5KM - (around 1,31 pace per 100)
My questions are, which of these are most achievable for you? Which is the hardest record? It looks like the 200, then the 5km, times are the hardest but wonder what you guys think.
Wave - Having given these very same questions much thought over the years, I think that your method is a bit flawed b/c there’s no way that 45:43 is on the same swimming level with the world records you are comparing it to. We have had numerous discussions of “how fast could a top D swimmer go on the Kona course” and, while opinions vary, most knowledgeable swimmers would say around 40:00 flat. This is for a D swimmer basically just trained for the swim, not needing to complete the race to have it “count” as the record. None of the WRs you’re using have any similar sort of follow-up requirement. So, I would use 40.00 in your future calcs. Thus 1.3 factor would be 52:00 for the Kona swim and 1.5 would be 60:00 with the other times staying same.
No body is doing 40 for the Kona swim, not even close. this kid that did the record is a really top OW swimmer, imagine he would be in most lead packs of the best in the world. And guessing he held nothing back really, was going for that record.
I dont know what you are using to get anyone to 40 minutes, but your estimates are just way too far out there…
I havent tried to put in an equivalent of what could be done on the Kona course, but just tried to play out what the ‘world best’ level is across the different events.
Playing it out a different way, on that question, would be to look at LCBs two swims (her Kona and her 1500 bests) to see how her times rank relative.
The Kona swim is different to the pure swims for reasons you know. But still fun to apply the differential against the best to see what level of performance people can do and what the equivalent in a swim would be. There will be quite a few people who could swim under 60 on an IM, and so swim in a fairly high percentile in differential terms in the sport of triathlon. But unsure how large the group is that take that merit to biking and / or running level too?
Another angle - 100 to 5km on the track and then the ironman mara as the data.
So of the pure swims what do you make out as the hardest?
I couldn’t disagree more with both you and Monty. He is a 16 min 1500 LCM, great swimmer, but basically not even faster than Gomez at his peak. None of his performances indicate he is anywhere league Paltrinieri’s level. Does anyone has any record showing he can keep up with Paltrinieri in the open water?
He was 6 minutes behind the winner at the 10k OW national championships in 2023. The winner went on the worlds and got 6th - 8 seconds behind the winner. That’s not far off the 2 minute mark for the Kona swim. But you have too many tactics and drafting to really compare.
I guess we’ll never find out - unless some of the swimming brands puts out a HUGE payday for a new swim record in Kona.
He was on our saddle in Kona after Skipper pinged me to get a saddle Sam’s way. Sam asked to meet up after the race to chat about his bike fit, and and it was a great conversation, including him showing Ed of VeloVetta and myself the amazing mountainous bike riding in Tasmania – he’s been great to work with - super great guy. I wanted for our bike fit chat to be out floating in the ocean with some swimming, but after Sam got six or so jellyfish stings during the race, he had no interest in getting back in the ocean so quickly!
Paltrinieri went 50:57 for 5000 LCM at the 2014 Italian Distance Swimming Champs, or about 1:01/100m. Given that he goes about 1 sec/turn faster in the pool, he would be about 1:03/100m in OW. Taking 1:03 x 38 = 39:54.
Haha, I love this thread! Lots of great thoughts and ideas here.
I think a 2-minute difference is probably a fair estimate for guys like Palt, Florian Wellbrock, or Nick Sloman. These guys are absolute weapons in the water and know how to attack a solo time trial effort—assuming it is solo. Just like on the bike, swimming in a pack is always faster. That’s something I’ve personally struggled with at 10km open water nationals. I swam solo off the back this year because I’m terrible at group swimming.
For reference, I swam a 3:59 long course 400m and a 15:59 1500m nearly two years ago. Decent times, but by no means “groundbreaking” compared to world-class swimmers. A friend of mine who went to the Olympics this year is 10 seconds faster than me over 200m!
One thing to keep in mind when estimating is that the Kona swim course is a little long—probably closer to 3900-3950m. In training, we did three 4000m time trials leading into Kona, and the race itself felt about the same length as those efforts.
If you want to see any of the training I’m doing in the water, and how I’m switching over to involve more focus on triathlon on the whole, feel free to check out my Instagram: sam.askeydoran. I do try to cover as much as possible on there as it seems a lot of people are interested in the transition from swimming to long course triathlon.
Nice of you to post in. Great swim and pretty cool to notch that one up in the books. Good for it to be an Aus and not one from QLD who racked that up.
If you trip up to SYD or Vic coast you could pick out some of the ocean races with some prize kitty. There are a few ex OW high level swimmers who do them, but could cover some beer money and change.
Always nice to have that little reminder that no matter how good you think you are going, there is always someone who can drop you hard. But at least in your case its someone going 144s for a 2!
A few observations - please let me know what you think. I am not completely sure about the numbers or method I have used so welcome anyone’s constructive input.
I am not someone who regularly works with numbers so I may have some blind spots here.
Using the numbers and data from above a few observations are humbly submitted for consideration
The men’s sprint event has improved more than the men’s distance event. The women’s sprint event has like wise improved more than the women’s distance event.
The men’s distance event is close to on par with the sprint event, but the women’s distance event needs to drop time to reach on par status.
The men and women’s sprint has improved about the same, but the women’s event has improved slightly less than the men’s.
The women’s distance event is closer to its absolute peak than the men’s distance event - the women’s distance event in the 1980s was at a higher level than the men (at that time).
Without checking, it looks like all the times except for the current 800free for women were/are world records. If you plug in Katie’s WR for that event I think you might get your par, or even better for the womens distance event…
Yes that is a good point, and I would need to do a WR version. These are really just the Olympic times which are not the fastest times from the era but a pretty competitive / good sample size. The KL WR is a few points quicker than her Paris time.
Another thing to throw in the mix - the 1984 pool was outdoor; the 2024 was ‘slow’. These times are not particularly helpful in some ways, as the swim suit and dive / turn techniques are completely different. I have to think that some of the distance swimmers from that era (1984 approx) would be close to the free swim speed of the modern swimmers, perhaps not quite the same speed but not far behind.
Looks like another afternoon of employee of the month at this rate to make that other table, but on another day…
Yes hard to tickle out what is actually faster now, but the times are instructive in letting us know that indeed many things got faster. My gut feeling is that the actual swimmers are only responsible for perhaps half the gains, and the other 1/2 dozen or so advancements the rest of the time gains.
Kind of like the bike leg in triathlon, yes guys have gotten a lot faster, but how much the bike?? I think in that case, it is well above the 50% mark, perhaps approaching 75% in everything except the rider.
And on the distance swimmers, yes they have not at this time benefited from the underwaters nearly as much as their shorter counterparts, but all the other fast tech that has come around since then has been at their disposals. But as Leon showed us in his incredible 500 free at NCAA’s last year, the underwaters are coming!!!
Time in open water, even on the same course year over year, isn’t a very valuable metric. But this is always an interesting discussion.
I think the fastest men in the world would be around 40 minutes. It’s basically 1:03/100m.
Here’s the results from US Open Water Nationals for 2024 and the World Championships in 2023 in the 5k. These races typically have a lot more turns than Kona. Generally, it’s a mile, triangular loop.
They are swimming somewhere between 1:04-1:05/100m. I think if you gave them straight aways and 1200m less swimming they’d be pretty close to 1:03/100m.
