Help me troubleshoot my biking

I have been training for IMMD (recently transferred from IMCHOO) and I am having quite some issues with maintaining what should be my target IM power over long periods. This will be my first IM, but I have done quite a few halfs, all of which I overbiked quite badly, so this is clearly a bigger issue. For reference, here are some of the more recent ones:

Oilman 70.3 2012: 5:21:05 (41:28, 2:36:35, 1:57:53)
Oilman 70.3 2013: 5:34:08 (38:58, 2:52:56, 1:58:06)
Galveston 70.3 2014: 5:25:40 (38:45, 2:38:43, 2:02:24)

To compare, my open half marathon PR is 1:26:42, and more recently, I ran 1:31:20. Recognizing this, I consciously decided to back off the bike a lot in my last longer race (1 mile swim, 40 mile bike, 9 mile run) to get the following result:

1 mi/40 mi/9 mi: 3:46:02 (33:52, 1:58:28, 1:09:25)

To complicate things, I don’t have a power meter, but I do most of my training on my CompuTrainer - so in essence, I train with power, but don’t race with it. I have tested and retested a few times to get an FTP of 265 (6’3", 190 lbs), using the Trainerroad 20 minute test protocol. Using this FTP, my indoor workouts all seem fine up to ~90 minutes, but anything over, I am having quite a bit of issues in ranges that should be easy cycling, including a rather noticeable cardiac drift of ~8-10 bpm. My weekly volume on the bike is not great, with my bike TSS hovering around 250, so I would assume this is one of the issues.

Based on feel, a 2:30 min endurance ride with a NP of 186 felt about as hard as all of the above 70.3s, if not a bit harder - which is of course far too hard. The question is - what combination of lowering target power and training can I do between now and 9/20 to address this?

Nobodys bit, so I will have a shot for you…

The obvious answer, which you have already eluded to is more time in saddle. Given your weekly TSS, I would anticipate you are spending roughly between 5-6.5 hours on the bike? Your IM ride, following convential wisdom will give you approximately 280 Tss, so 250 Tss probably wont cut as a weekly training volume, so you should start by increasing this.

Progressively increase the duration of your weekly long ride, if time is a factor, some efforts above IM pace will help drive the TSS up of the rides. Another medium / long ride in the week would be advisable, building that endurance base which appears to be a limiter. Supplement that with Sweetspot and Threshold workouts where you can. Getting close to the race, dial in pacing and nutrition. Its been said on here numerous times but practice practice practice.

Regarding pacing, IMO, it being your first IM, dial the % of FTP back a touch. If you are having trouble at 70% as you appear to be, take it back to 65% and take it from there. Find a formula that works for you from a pacing and nutrition point, and work towards that during the last phase of your build.

Good luck!

I don’t know how much running you are doing, but a weekly TSS of 250 leaves a lot of room to ride more. Can you do 400 for a few weeks? Getting a bigger fan for your indoor rides, or turning the AC down, might help the indoor training.