I’ve been using a HRM for training for ~27 years now, starting when I was in my young 20’s. I’m now nearly 49, and although I’ve never “not trained” I’m stepping it back up a little bit right now compared to the last few years of focusing on kids rather than racing
From my observation, it seems my HR for a given running speed seems relatively consistent over the years. For example, in my 20’s an 8 minute/mile pace was an easy run at ~165bpm of HR. These days it feels like a pretty solid tempo to me, and my HR might still settle around 165bpm for a few miles that I could hold it. The high HR paces I ran in my 20’s are now out of reach for any aerobic distance. There are some weight fluctuations to account for but not too severe :-). Max HR when in 20’s was observed at about 204, while now I would “predict” about 185 but haven’t tested it. RHR is around the same at ~50bpm.
It seems sort of logical that your oxygen needs for a given pace would stay consistent with age, and therefore the HR for a given pace is independent of age, and this seems to be consistent with my crude observations. Is this an accurate conclusion? I’ve never heard it stated this way.
The downside is that I don’t think there is much you can do about decreasing max HR with age, so performance will automatically go down as one moves into higher HR zones for a given pace. I did read one expert say that Max HR does not decrease with age unless you are sedentary, but that seems to be counter to a lot of other information, as well as my own experience. But if my conclusion above is accurate, it seems I could interpolate my decreasing running pace for a HR zone as I get older, assuming consistent training.
To put it another way, I should not hold out hope that I will be able to run the same times and distances I ran when I was younger but now at a significantly lower HR (baring some efficiency breakthrough e.g. weight loss).