Good point on Mayo’s age - I forgot that. We’ll just chalk this spring up to youthful exuberance. I just don’t think he’s there yet - maybe in a few years…maybe next year! I have a hard time figuring Vino out. He had a lot of emotional inspiration last year. Tough to come back with the same type of energy again, but he could surprise.
agret,
The speculation by everyone is interesting and entertaining but omits a critical factor: team strength!
For many years now, the Blue Train has demonstrated the value of a strong/strongest team in the TDF.
Last year, I don’t think Armstrong would have been nearly as successful if his team had been weaker/less capable of delivering him to the critical points in the many stages. They also succesfully “carried” him when he was suffering and trying to get over the hump/bad luck.
The 2002 Postal team was the strongest team ever according to Lance before 2003. Last year’s team seemed even stronger, because it was relied on even more to help get Armstrong through his weak start.
Even with the personnel changes over the last year, I don’t believe the Postal team has been weakened by those changes. I am convinced they are still the strongest team in the tour. As others have pointed out, they are also the most experienced at riding in cross winds and working together as “one”. Not only this, but their experience factor keeps going up as well as their confidence factor for all they accomplish in overcoming the many obstacle that develop in the course of each Tour.
All things considered regarding the strengths of various individuals, I feel strongly that when the top riders are very evenly matched, the strongest team becomes the deciding factor. And let’s not forget, it seems no one is capable of suffering to the degree Armstrong is willing to suffer, even Hamilton.
Lastly, there is the experience factor. Of all the active riders, only Lance and Jan know exactly what it takes to win the Tour. And no one is more experienced at this than Lance. He has reminded himself every year for the last four years, and especially so last year!
I guess you can figure out where my money will be.
It will be interesting and I hope very exciting. I’m looking forward to it very much.
Just my 2 cents, FWIW.
Unfortunately, despite a huge talent Zulle never managed not to crash.
Hopefully Phonak will keep Hamilton and Zulle seperated on the TTT . . . the crash potential is quite high when both of these guys are on the bars hammering together 
Unfortunately, despite a huge talent Zulle never managed not to crash.
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Thats why I’m surprised Hamilton is asking for Zulle to be on the tour team. I wonder what stage the two will manage to find each other and crash each other out. Unless its a ploy to have Zulle take out the other contenders. Just hope it doesn’t rain, Zulle and his prescription glasses are a disaster in the rain.
That being said I hope that Hamilton and the rest bitch slap Lance. There are way to many Lance Fan Boys. At USPROs this weekend everyone was cheering for Lance and US Postal even though Lance wasn’t even there. So I had to make up my Oedipus Lance poster for some fun. That and the Post Circus - Curious George poster made for some good reactions from the Postal Service team car.
Bitch slapping Lance may be the WORST tactic Hamilton or anyone else might try. Something like that would only tend to piss him off. If you want to see Lance and the Blue Train completely decimate the rest of the peleton, let someone try embarrassing him. Just about the only rider who would be allowed to ride away without repercussion is Jan.
I’m just trying to imagine the boys in orange trying to control the Postal train the day after Mayo rides Lance off his wheel by a minute or so (supposing this even happened). . .They’d better bribe the T-Mob and Phonak boys for some help or it ain’t gonna be pretty.
I remember last fall when Tyler announced his decision to leave CSC, man I though what is he doing, but when I read about why he left the team…it totally makes sense. Hamilton wants what Lance has a team totally dedicated to supporting his bid for the TdF, and he now has it. CSC was never totally dedicate to Tyler winnig the Tour even before his crash. Plans were always in the making for Sastre to have a shot at a stage win on a stage where the presence of Sastre could have helped Tyler limit his losses. Sastre lost a fair amount of time on that stage, had Sastre been supporting him, Hamilton might have saved 2 minutes and been in on the podium. Likewise on other days Sastre and had another solid climber could have helped him out a bit more. CSC did however, do a lot for Tyler last year, the team was just never totally strucutured to support his bid for the TdF, there was always a little division of goals. Phonak on the other hand is a totally structured to support Tyler. If Tyler is going to win this is his year…if he can prove his somewhat less than consistent climbing was a result of his broken collarbone than he along with Ullrich–if Jan is climbing well–will challenge Armstrong as much as last year and probably more. Watch out for Zubeldia a much better all-around and more consistent rider than the explosive, but inconsistent Mayo.
I’m really looking forward to the L’alpe TT. I’m also not convinced Lance is my top pick. I actually think the second TT will be more critical. Yes, Lance is a great TTer and yes he is great in the mountains, but I think he thrives on the climbs partly because of the head to head nature of it. For this TT, everyone will get to ride their own race, something that is just not an option in the normal mountain stages. It’s no secret that everyone’s going to be attacking Lance in the mountains (that was so cool to watch last year, and I can’t wait) but that’s going to take a major toll on every rider vying for a top spot. I think that Lance is likely best suited to deal with these attacks and this environment which is why I still think the TT isn’t going to be as important as it’s being made out to be.
Regardless, he’s definitely in my top three for the TT and I think it will be very tough for Ullrich and could be a big factor for him.
I actually think the second TT will be more critical
Pooksy. . .did you plagiarize Ullrich’s thoughts on the TTs as to which one was more important? He was reported saying the same thing yesterday. . .
it seems to me that jan is hoping that armstrong is going to go on the dehydration diet again that day. it seems to me that armstrong’s losing 15 lbs and still placing 2nd on the day is an indicator that jan’s not going to be able to reproduce the 1.5 minute gain this year if lance protects himself from dehydration (ie doesn’t warm up in air-conditioning, etc)
I’m of a similar mind. . .
One thing no one has really hit on as hard as I think it should be is the state of Lance’s personal life last year. . .it was total chaos happening. As a divorce veteran, and yet as someone capable of extremely single-minded focus. . .I can readily imagine the toll that took on his form and preparation, as well as mental sharpness during the race.
I may be being overgenerous and showing my pro-Lance fandom. . .but I doubt if we saw more than a 90% Lance last year. . .over the totality of the race. I think we’ll see again this year the gap between him and the rest of the contenders. I fully believe it was a lot closer than it should have been last year.
Still. . .the dehydration incident wasn’t the first lapse in concentration Lance has had during his title run. Remember Joux-Plane?
Never bought that dehydration excuse. If you get beat, give the guy who beat you some credit and move on. Don’t make up excuses. Just go out and get him the next time(which I guess he did).
remind me, please. at least give me the stage #, i know the story by stage #s
Sorry, but LA crushed them in the uphill TT in '01 - the day after dropping everyone on the Alpe. He doesn’t need competitors around him - he’ll have constant time checks. And last year, on the day he finally felt (and looked if you were paying attention) good at Luz Ardiden, no one could drop him - Mayo gave it everything he had, and LA flew right by him - twice. Before and after the crash if you want to make the adrenaline argument. I have little doubt he’ll win the uphill TT, and Ullrich is kidding himself if he thinks its not the key stage in the race. There’s way more time to gain than on the flat TT. I suspect he was jsut playing it down for the media - he knows the importance of that stage and where it comes in the race.
I don’t want to sound like a giddy LA fan all the time, but when I consider the totality of everything I’ve seen this year and last, I have a hard time believing anyone will be close. This is a race for second place.
Joux-Plane, I believe the stage in question was the 2000 Tour(?) (win #2), where he lapsed and didn’t take the final feed and ended up bonking horrendously on the final climb. None of the boys in blue were around and had it not been for a couple of riders on another team helping pace him up the mountain, limiting his losses to Ullrich, he’d have probably cracked.
oh come on, we’ve been there before. Nobody can loose 15lbs over a timeframe of a couple hours and still be alive, it’s not possible, you’re dead even an exeptional athlete like Lance!
Did he go into dehydration, maybe yes.
But he did not loose 15lbs!
It’s amazing how easy it is to spread non-true stories even in a forum where people are more knowledgable than average.
listen, i’m not a doctor, and i have no background in this kind of stuff. you may be right, he might not have possibly been able to lose that much weight. i honestly, genuinely don’t know. i wish i did.
however, don’t shoot the messenger. what i said about the 15 lbs is what i heard listening to him being interviewed. it’s on a lot of cycling mags on the web, and he definitely said it in an interview (check the tdf official site, i think it’s in one of the video interviews by frankie a).
seriously, there is no reason to rag on me for passing along information that i got straight from the horse’s mouth.
I think the whole Joux-Plane thing was way over blown. Dude still kept pace with most of the best climbers in the world, and he didn’t lose much time. Good writing for the book, I suppose, but if you look at the tape, he didn’t bonk in the sense that we mortals think of. His pace was still pretty high.
The 15lb thing is a joke, too, I agree, but there’s no doubt he dehydrated. He was fine half-way through - riding comfortably. He blew quickly, and everything went downhill from there. Ummm, still finished second. A 100% Vino couldn’t beat him - that tells me a lot.
5lbs. . .15lbs. . .doesn’t matter. . .the man was dehydrated and down several percent from 100 in terms of potential performance. . .I doubt he’ll make that mistake again. And I doubt Ullrich counts his victory in that race as highly as the pundits do. . .he knows he bested a less than 100% rider. . .
sorry, didn’t want to get across in a rude way. I know Lance sayd this in an interview. But it’s a fact that it can’t be true. Yes he was dehydrated, no question but I don’t like the way he talked his way out of the situation. He is usually very prepared and informed for his interviews, at that point he wasn’t. I’m also sorry that I sometimes asume everybody has been reading this forum since years and knows all the posts.
We had a very long tread last year after the TT arguing about the 15 lbs of water loss - it’s not possible. But I hope I didn’t start that discussion again. Lance still hold his own and won the tour, that’s what champions do!
I’m no Lance fan! But he is the champion until someone else comes along.
you raise a good point—that is a long, flat tt. the rest of the course and the rules might favor climbers, but guys like mayo and heras and probably zubeldia will lose some big time to the likes of la, jan, tyler, and vino. the length of that stage cancels out some of the advantages given to the climbers on the ttt and the d’huez tt.
and i know you didn’t raise this point, but i want to address it. t-mobile is deep with very strong riders, but it won’t work out like at the giro. the competition is much deeper in the tdf with several strong teams. i think guys like simoni, leipheimer, heras, mayo/zubeldia, and maybe even hamilton are racing more for solid top 5-10 positions, rather than overall gc. they will have their teams chase down attacks from some of the lesser t-mobile guys rather than leaving it strictly up to postal. in the giro, popovych couldn’t chase both cunego and simoni so he had to make a tactical decision to stay with the known quantity in simoni. other teams didn’t have the fire power to help with the chase–it was saeco and everybody else. cunego proved stronger than many realized and so it was a mistake to allow him to escape.