they placed 5 in the top 8 of the prologue, maybe this team is strong enough to lead Hamilton to first at the tour? I remember may in this forum questioned this last fall when Hamilton moved from CSC but that result seems to give a first (not conclusive) answer to that, doesn’t it?
You can lead a horse to water… I don’t think tyler can win the tour. I’ll go with 4th this year.
I noticed the Phonak placings as well. Pretty impressive, but it was, what, a 5 mile TT? I would love to see Tyler on the podium for the TdF, but I don’t think he’s got a legit shot at taking the whole schebang. And just to get things in writing before the gun goes off, I’ll be very happy if either of Lance, Jan, or Tyler wins it all. I’ll be cheering like hell for all three. Let’s go ahead and add Vino to that list too. I’m curious to see how those Basque punks in orange will fare, but I won’t be cheering for 'em.
Curious as well to see how Tyler comes out of the Tour this year. His problem is not Time Trialing it is the climbing day after day. His team can deliver him completely rested to the bottom of the climbs but I’m not sure he’s got the explosiveness in the mountains to shake Lance, Mayo, Jan, Zubeldia, Vino etc., That’s not to say he’s not a great climber that’s just to say that if he’s in contention and 100% he’s not strong enough to shake all 4 of those guys. Even if one or 2 of them are having an off day he won’t be able to shake the other contenders. I’ll be cheering for him but I’m afraid this will turn into the Lance and Jan show again and everyone else will be racing for 3rd place.
I think you nailed it. To win the tour you have to be stong every day in the mountains and be a strong TT guy and have one or two outstanding days in either the TT or a mountain top finish where you blow your competition away by 2+ min. Hamliton is neither this guy in the mountains nor the TT. He can be top 3 every day in either, but can he put 2 min into the competition on any given day, while holding his own for the other 23 days ? I doubt it. That being said, I’m a Hamilton fan, and would love to see him do it, but my money this year is someone that we are not even expecting. It would also be great to see Ullrich win it again after all those second place finishes (kind of like Zotemelk sp ? vs Merkx), but I think he’ll peak in week three and then blow everyone away in Athens !
Completely agree that we’ll see see the best of Jan in Athens. Since this is becoming a bit of a prediction thread - I’ll put mine out there early.
1st - Armstrong by 4:20. Last year was a fluke. He’ll be the same ol’ TT’er and climber. And watch out for postal early on if it gets windy during the first week. There is no team in the world better at splitting the field in cross winds, and I bet they’re praying for windy conditions. They could take out some of the contenders right off the bat in Belgium and northeast France.
2nd - Hamilton - Seems to have prepared perfectly and the team is strong. But, it’s already been noted that he’s a “steady” rider, not explosive enough in the mountains to drop everyone.
3rd - Ullrich - Just doesn’t seem to be there this year. Might be too late to get into shape, but one thing he has going for him is how late the important stages come in the tour. It scares me how quiet T-Mobile’s been lately. Too quiet.
4th - Tough call, maybe Zubeldia. Very similar rider to Hamilton, just not as good a TT’er. Mayo’s peaked way too soon this year.
5th - Leipheimer - my surprise pick. He traditionally gets stronger in the latter half of the grand tours, so the course suits him perfectly. He’ll move up slowly, and solidify his position in the last time trial.
6th - Mayo or Heras
7th - Mayo or Heras
8th - Moreau
9th - Simoni
10th - McGee
Hmmm…2nd place in the Giro with a cracked shoulder, 4th in the Tour with a busted collarbone and you’re saying TH can’t climb day after day? He was right there on the last day of the Giro when he popped on the last climb. Happens to everyone. Lance is the only rider that’s put time into his competitors on a daily basis so I’d say TH is definitely a threat. I wonder what he could do if he stays heathy? I have a feeling he’s going to surprise people.
Check out the article in the new Pro Cycling. TH has been working on this explosiveness for the last 3 years.
And TH is one of best TT’ers in the world. Lance and Jan are better, but I’d put money on him against the rest.
IMO, TH’s biggest problem is staying on upright. I can’t recall one Grand Tour where TH hasn’t been on the ground.
I think he gives LA some serious competition this year provided he doesn’t fall down.
Tyler couldn’t climb day after day as well as the rest of them because he had broken bones. if he stays upright this time, he’s got a good shot at the podium. maybe even the top step of said podium.
If Armstrong stays out of trouble and away from bad luck, he will win. Jan will take 2nd, Hamilton third. I think Simoni will ride well, since he did not peak well for the Giro.
True, but I don’t think Armstrong is going to bury himself like he did last year. I think he caused himself some problems with his injury and recovery post Dauphine last year.
he had some tendonitis in his hip. you could see it in the way he pedaled while climbing. one foot was splayed out at a weird angle.
I’d throw Vino in the top 10 as well unless he totally sacrifices himself for Ullrich. I love the way he races. Hopefully Levi won’t get hurt again. Last years injuries and crashes were a big disappointment (except for Lance’s brainfart/spectator debacle, that just sucked). I’m still bummed about Beloki’s digger.
I’m also bitter about the new TTT rule, tailor made for Euskatel. Mayo is definitely a threat in the mountains, but I just don’t think he has the team behind him to get it done.
Speaking of predictions, let’s hear some for the top three of the L’Alpe d’Huez TT…
Pooks,
What is it with you and T-Mobile? Are you getting kickbacks from them or something???
L’Alpe d’Huez TT
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Armstrong
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Heras
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Mayo
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Hamilton
Something tells me that Armstrong is going to surprise some people!!
“What is it with you and T-Mobile? Are you getting kickbacks from them or something???”
It’s the pink. I love the pink.
Personnally, I agree T-Mobile has been quiet…too quiet. I think Jan Ullrich knows exactly what he is doing. It is way to early to write him off. Jan looked a little chubby in the spring, but nothing like he had been in the past, personally I think he was a little a chubby, but very heavily muscled…making him look chubbier than he actually was. He looks very fit as a whole. I believe T-Mobile and his personal coach have been working for him to be in top shap in the final week of the tour so that he is strong enough to limit any losses he might have and finish with a very strong time trial to win the Tour if he hasn’t already by that point.
There are some other real threats for the Tour, Heras has been riding an ever improving time trial and is without a doubt one of the best climbers in the world, maybe even better than Armstrong and definitely one of the few with the capacity to put time into the “Boss” on a an uphill time trial and/or mountain stage.
Tyler Hamilton is the most all-around capable rider to have left the Posties, a rider capable of defeating Armstrong. It is difficult to tell how much his collarbone break affected his climbing consistency in the mountains last year. Tyler is clearly one of the toughest riders in the pro peleton; if he stays uninjured, he has the capabilities to pul off the biggest upset in the Tour.
I am a fan of the current “big three” Tyler, Lance, and Jan with the Tyler my favourite. And I was a fan of Tyler before last summer’s Tour. I also am really impressed by Zubeldia and Vinokourov. However, I would like to point out that the last rider to win the Tour five times, Big Mig, had–like Lance–one of his best pre-Tour seasons of his career before losing his sixth Tour, which led to his retirement. Has Armstrong peaked to early, will he crack on one of the climbs…it is going to be an exciting year. With that said, I believe barring freak accident, illness, or the emergence of a new star Lance is the favourite for the Tour. His training methods are second to none and he is tactically the strongest favourite in the race. I can’t wait, it will be exciting.
Like just about everyone else, I like Mr. Armstrong for #6 this year. I think Tyler will be there in the hunt, but my gut tells me that Vino will be a bigger threat to LA this year than Ullrich. Looks like Beloki is out for the TdF, and if he isn’t, he certainly isn’t in top shape. It appears that Ullrich is coming along better than everyone anticipated, but there’s something about the way Vino rides that makes me take notice. He seems to be more aggressive, less afraid of Lance than Jan. I think Lance may have won the mental battle over Ullrich with all those second place finishes. Last year appeared to be Jan’s best chance so far at unseating Lance, and he didn’t get it done.
I also see some potential problems on T-Mobile, what with two thirds of last year’s podium on the same team this year. Saeco weathered some rough waters at the Giro, and experienced a little team division with Cunego besting Simoni overall. I can see the same thing happening this year. As far as the Pinkies go, I think there could be some split allegiances between Vino and Ullrich. That could open up the doors for someone like Mayo, Hamilton, maybe even Julich or Leipheimer.
But all in all, I think the highest T-Mobile rider on GC will be Vino. I just think he’s a tougher, more aggressive rider than Ullrich is right now.
Alpe d’ Huez: I think the advantage goes to Heras for the stage win, but Lance, Mayo and the big climbers will be right there as well.
RP
I think the team TT should have never come back. I like it as a fan, but I I don’t think it should have any bearing on the GC.
At any rate, what I don’t want to see is somebody losing by less time than they give away in the TTT, no matter who it is.
I’m not going to pick my overall top 5 yet. It’s still too early. I’ll wait 'til after the Dauphine and the Tour de Swiss.
L’alpe TT: Mayo Heras Armstrong Ullrich Hamilton
I honestly believe Mayo is overrated. Armstrong dropped him easily at Luz Ardiden…twice, and he was at his best while Armstrong and Ullrich were clearly not 100%. If it weren’t for the new TTT rule, I might be so bold to predict he’d finish out of the top 10. I think he’s over-estimated himself after being allowed to escape on the Alpe last year (nobody chased because he wasn’t a “contender”), and seems to have peaked way too early. He wants Dauphine really bad, and I won’t be surprised to see him leave it all on the road there. Armstrong learned his lesson last year - nobody will remember who wins Dauphine come August. Ventoux will be very telling, though. I think Zubeldia is a better all around rider, and he’s been building quietly while Mayo’s been winning everything he can - and expending a lot of energy doing so. Maybe I’m wrong.
One prediction is easily made - there’ll be a new record for the climb up the Alpe this year. I say the winner breaks 37 minutes (isn’t 38 something the record? or, do I remember that wrong?).
As for Vino - I could be wrong to leave him out of the top 10 - probably am, but he clearly doesn’t have the fitness he did this time last year, and with Ullrich coming into form, T-Mobile should be focused solely on him. T-Mobile is a scary team - they could pull a Saeco and send Vino or Evans up the road hoping to make everyone chase. If they (the other contenders) decide not to, we might have another Cunego. An Oops-that-worked-better-than-we-planned-it winner. I’ll stick with my predictions, and restate the need to watch the first week crosswinds. Remember '99, if it weren’t for a crash in the first week that cost him nearly 7 minutes, and the subsequent push of those left standing by Armstrong and Hincapie, Armstrong would have been pushed all the way to Paris by…Alex Zulle - who lost by…about seven minutes. Just my 2 cents that’s worth less than that.
PINK??? I wonder what Mr. Tibbs would say about that???
MWB
Yeah, Mayo might be making a mistake by not saving a little for the Tour, but he’s definitely not overrated in my book. He’s only 26 and just moving into his prime
I reluctantly agree w/ you about Vino. Reluctantly because I am a big Vino fan, but I don’t think he’s in the same form as last year, either.