GM is planning to make only electric vehicles by 2035:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/business/general-motors-electric-cars.html
But if climate change is all a big hoax, why in the world is this ginormous company doing this, still lots of oil available, why bother going electric ??
Will they still be making gas and diesel trucks? Planning to get a 1 ton truck in next year or two and keep it for 20 years. If this notice includes trucks, i’ll be looking at another brand.
Yup, all vehicles.
This my take on the story
GM is angling for some kind of funding from the Biden administration to be able to transition to all electric
If there is one thing that Americans have shown time and again its that they are addicted to their cars and they like em BIG, so the plan wont work in GM’s favour if their customers don’t want it.
Had GM announced that all vehicles would be hybrid with an all electric option, I would believe it. But all electric? I dont think so.
Will they still be making gas and diesel trucks? Planning to get a 1 ton truck in next year or two and keep it for 20 years. If this notice includes trucks, i’ll be looking at another brand.
Why would you look at another brand if you are buying in a year or two? GM is going to still be making IC cars in a year or two, 2035 is 14 years away.
I don’t think this is nearly as crazy as people think it is. I wouldn’t be shocked if GM was still selling some IC vehicles after 2035, but I doubt that goes on much longer than a handful of years.
Right now is when they would be doing the funding and planning for their IC engines that would be come out in 2035. Not much reason to be putting the huge amount of funding in developing IC engines that are going to come out in 2035. So even if the 2035 is premature and electric propulsion is not quite there in every niche, what does GM have to lose? Sure they obviously lose some sales in those areas, but how much will that market be? How much R&D would need to be spent to be competitive in that area? Lets say after 2035 there are ~500,000 IC vehicles being sold a year. I think that is a reasonable assumption, but you can double it it your really want. Now developing the IC engines for those 2035 vehicles will take probably close to 1 billion dollars. You would probably need to grab a large part of that market to make your investment worth it. It probably makes much more sense to spend that ~1 billion dollars on other things like electric propulsion. Because there are probably going to be ~4 million electric cars sold, much easier to get a return on that investment. So even if you lose part of that smaller segment, you are now more competitive on the much larger segment.
All companies are just going to be investing less and less on IC engines. IC engines are going to be more niche and having tougher regulations. So you have higher R&D costs (or at least not lower) for a smaller market. At some point that investment just does not make sense, even if there is some area where IC is better, just not worth it.
This my take on the story
GM is angling for some kind of funding from the Biden administration to be able to transition to all electric
If there is one thing that Americans have shown time and again its that they are addicted to their cars and they like em BIG, so the plan wont work in GM’s favour if their customers don’t want it.
Had GM announced that all vehicles would be hybrid with an all electric option, I would believe it. But all electric? I dont think so.
How many IC vehicles are going to be sold per year in 2035? How much will it cost to develop those IC engines for 2035? How much of that market share would GM need to grab to make a return on that investment?
I think GM looked at the answers to those questions and saw investing the money in other places made more sense, rather than this is some political play. Sure announcing it is a PR play, but this probably a business decision reading the tea leaves of where the market is in ~15 years.
Are there going to be charging stations in the middle of India or other developing country?
Hybrid just seemed like more logical approach, even if it is a small IC engine and bigger electric.
I would think because it makes business sense to do so. Even so 14 years is a long time from now. Eight years ago gas costed 80 percent more than it does today. My wife and I owned a Prius and a minivan. We now own a small suv and a pickup truck.
Will they still be making gas and diesel trucks? Planning to get a 1 ton truck in next year or two and keep it for 20 years. If this notice includes trucks, i’ll be looking at another brand.
Can you explain how them not making an ICE truck in 2036 impacts your decision on a 2022 purchase?
This my take on the story
GM is angling for some kind of funding from the Biden administration to be able to transition to all electric
If there is one thing that Americans have shown time and again its that they are addicted to their cars and they like em BIG, so the plan wont work in GM’s favour if their customers don’t want it.
Had GM announced that all vehicles would be hybrid with an all electric option, I would believe it. But all electric? I dont think so.
How many IC vehicles are going to be sold per year in 2035? How much will it cost to develop those IC engines for 2035? How much of that market share would GM need to grab to make a return on that investment?
I think GM looked at the answers to those questions and saw investing the money in other places made more sense, rather than this is some political play. Sure announcing it is a PR play, but this probably a business decision reading the tea leaves of where the market is in ~15 years.
It would seem (after re-reading GM’s statement), a lot
This move is only for passenger and light duty vehicles.
Their medium and heavy duty vehicles are not included
There is no doubt that every manufacturer will need to transition away from ICE’s into the future and the last thing a company would want is to be left behind, but I still question the wisdom of a all-electric fleet if this is not what their customers actually want to buy.
Had they announced that all vehicles would be either hybrid or BEV, then yep, Id agree with that as smart move
But BEV only, not so much
This my take on the story
GM is angling for some kind of funding from the Biden administration to be able to transition to all electric
If there is one thing that Americans have shown time and again its that they are addicted to their cars and they like em BIG, so the plan wont work in GM’s favour if their customers don’t want it.
Had GM announced that all vehicles would be hybrid with an all electric option, I would believe it. But all electric? I dont think so.
How many IC vehicles are going to be sold per year in 2035? How much will it cost to develop those IC engines for 2035? How much of that market share would GM need to grab to make a return on that investment?
I think GM looked at the answers to those questions and saw investing the money in other places made more sense, rather than this is some political play. Sure announcing it is a PR play, but this probably a business decision reading the tea leaves of where the market is in ~15 years.
I think the big problem is that in the quest to develop electric, everyone has abandoned research and development of increased efficiency IC engines. Mazda is basically the only car company still killing themselves to improve - really, fundamentally improve - the IC engine. Their new Skyactiv-X engine really is impressive, and the 6-cyl will be as well…
If electric doesn’t pan out - and it might not, if the investment in infrastructure isn’t there - then we’re all screwed, stuck at 2020 level emissions…
The cost curve for EVs are rapidly reaching parity with ICE. When that happens, the transition will happen quickly. If an EV is cheaper and beats the performance pants off of ICE vehicles, why would anyone choose the slower more expensive vehicle?
Are there going to be charging stations in the middle of India or other developing country?
Hybrid just seemed like more logical approach, even if it is a small IC engine and bigger electric.
It is possible that in some developing countries they will hook the car up to a diesel generator, but there will be plenty of used cars and Tatas for the middle of no where places. On the flip side, all the Euro markets and CA will not allow any ICE sales by 2035. How many cars does GM sell in the developing countries anyway.
The cost curve for EVs are rapidly reaching parity with ICE. When that happens, the transition will happen quickly. If an EV is cheaper and beats the performance pants off of ICE vehicles, why would anyone choose the slower more expensive vehicle?
Even right now, it sure seems that the maintenance and upkeep costs on a electric vehicle are a tiny fraction of the maintenance and upkeep costs on comparable IC vehicle.
Or, at least, that is my impression.
How many cars does GM sell in the developing countries anyway.
I always love the story of GM selling the Nova sedan in south america. Gives me a laugh every time…
Will they still be making gas and diesel trucks? Planning to get a 1 ton truck in next year or two and keep it for 20 years. If this notice includes trucks, i’ll be looking at another brand.
Why would you look at another brand if you are buying in a year or two? GM is going to still be making IC cars in a year or two, 2035 is 14 years away.
I plan to keep my truck 20 years. I suspect if they go all electric in 14 they won’t have as much service available at the end of its 20 year life.
Like FishyJoe said, if BEVs are cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate and out perform ICE and hybrids in every single way, why would GM continue to make anything but BEVs? That is what all of the market forecasts are saying. There might be a niche market for ICE, but they can leave that to Mazda or Rolls-Royce.
This my take on the story
GM is angling for some kind of funding from the Biden administration to be able to transition to all electric
If there is one thing that Americans have shown time and again its that they are addicted to their cars and they like em BIG, so the plan wont work in GM’s favour if their customers don’t want it.
Had GM announced that all vehicles would be hybrid with an all electric option, I would believe it. But all electric? I dont think so.
How many IC vehicles are going to be sold per year in 2035? How much will it cost to develop those IC engines for 2035? How much of that market share would GM need to grab to make a return on that investment?
I think GM looked at the answers to those questions and saw investing the money in other places made more sense, rather than this is some political play. Sure announcing it is a PR play, but this probably a business decision reading the tea leaves of where the market is in ~15 years.
It would seem (after re-reading GM’s statement), a lot
This move is only for passenger and light duty vehicles.
Their medium and heavy duty vehicles are not included
There is no doubt that every manufacturer will need to transition away from ICE’s into the future and the last thing a company would want is to be left behind, but I still question the wisdom of a all-electric fleet if this is not what their customers actually want to buy.
Had they announced that all vehicles would be either hybrid or BEV, then yep, Id agree with that as smart move
But BEV only, not so much
I think you are misunderstanding something here. It is not a smart move to make something just because there are customers. You need to actually make money. Losing money to sell something people want to buy only works in certain circumstances.
This is like manual transmissions. Sure there are customers that want them, but in most cases it does not make economical sense to offer them. Sure 100 people may want manual transmission minivans, but no company is going to invest the tens of millions of dollars to get those customers. It would be dumb to do that.
Sure there will be IC engine customers in 2035, but there are not going to be many of them. Just because there are customers does not mean there are enough customers to make the investment worth it.
If you think this is a dumb move, lay out the business case. How much GM would need to invest? How big the market would be? How much of the market they could get? Google how much the development costs for these things are. It is a huge investment for a small market.
I heard about this. Pretty cool. Paging DavHamm for the inside info…
Will they still be making gas and diesel trucks? Planning to get a 1 ton truck in next year or two and keep it for 20 years. If this notice includes trucks, i’ll be looking at another brand.
Why would you look at another brand if you are buying in a year or two? GM is going to still be making IC cars in a year or two, 2035 is 14 years away.
I plan to keep my truck 20 years. I suspect if they go all electric in 14 they won’t have as much service available at the end of its 20 year life.
I would worry about it. In 2042 they would still need to service all of the 2034 models under warranty. Plus are you currently getting your 20 year old car serviced by a manufacturer or using them for sourcing parts? You might have a valid concern if you planned on waiting 12 years from now to buy.