This has done under the radar, but I just looked into this:
The US sits 6th on the MTR list. From what I can tell, only 6 teams earn selection spots. There is basically no chance the US can move up. They should be able to hold off the teams below, but Belgium seems very dangerous.
The individual spots are uncertain, too. McElroy is the only one slotted for a spot and he is should be very unhappy right now. I don’t know the man at all so for all I know he didn’t want to race the MTR this weekend, but I know how I would feel about it.
I hope all these people can come and work together for their mutual good. If I am McElroy I know that they need him just as much as he needs them. Telling McElroy that Rider is the guy right now seems fool-hearty. If Matt has no shot at the Olympics, he should be racing PTO and 70.3. He would make more money.
This has done under the radar, but I just looked into this:
The US sits 6th on the MTR list. From what I can tell, only 6 teams earn selection spots. There is basically no chance the US can move up. They should be able to hold off the teams below, but Belgium seems very dangerous.
The individual spots are uncertain, too. McElroy is the only one slotted for a spot and he is should be very unhappy right now. I don’t know the man at all so for all I know he didn’t want to race the MTR this weekend, but I know how I would feel about it.
I hope all these people can come and work together for their mutual good. If I am McElroy I know that they need him just as much as he needs them. Telling McElroy that Rider is the guy right now seems fool-hearty. If Matt has no shot at the Olympics, he should be racing PTO and 70.3. He would make more money.
6 teams, not counting those who earned automatic spots as host nation or 2022 or 2023 World MTR Champions. So take out Germany, GB, and France from the rankings and it becomes less of a concern.
Yes pretty certain that USA will earn 2 slots
For 2 slots you don’t need 2 people in the top 30 in oly ranking
And simple quali spot is enough so .And therefore USA will also have a relay.
After
france who already has looked 3 in top 30
Spain extremely certain with 4 in top 30 I think
Hungary right now has 3 in top 30
Germany and Portugal are likely to get 3
Switzerland, USA and potentially Norway if iden will hit form again also have a solid to good chance to get 3 in the top 30
The thing that makes me smile is USA is fighting against 4 countries that have 10 million or less inhabitants each .
Morgan Pearson auto-qualified with his test event placing, so he’s definitely going. Forgive me for not looking into it myself, but if McElroy is guaranteed a spot (is that accurate?), then we already have 2.
Note: the “auto qualification” spoken a lot about is a national federation qualification, not an IOC qualification. Think of it as “if we have a (or 2 or 3) spot(s), you have it”. For most NFs this is a likely non-issue (e.g. the US is pretty sure to have a least 1 spot) but technically e.g. the US could have more than 1 athlete “auto-qualifying” but not be able to send those. (Very unlikely.)
but if McElroy is guaranteed a spot (is that accurate?), then we already have 2. //
He is not guaranteed a spot, and I think AJ’s point is that it is possible(not really I think) that the US only gets one spot, and Pearson now has that locked up. We will likely get another one, which likely will go to discretionary, so no one has that locked up as of yet, and probably wont. I think AJ left out the auto qualifiers in the relay in his calculations, but going forward something to think about if you are USAT…
I really find it pretty embarrassing that we dont have 3 and 3 for the games, having even less than 2 would be time to burn it all down and start over…
I really find it pretty embarrassing that we dont have 3 and 3 for the games, having even less than 2 would be time to burn it all down and start over…
Just the mens side, the ladies have got depth and have already lined up for 3 spots on OQ
To AJs point, USA is unlikely to get bumped out of MTR as the nations close already don’t have really bad results to drop, AUS would need to win the world champs and a couple of other WTCS events to make up the points gap.
6 teams, not counting those who earned automatic spots as host nation or 2022 or 2023 World MTR Champions. So take out Germany, GB, and France from the rankings and it becomes less of a concern.
you are sure on this? I presumed it worked the same way as the top 30 / if a country has 4 athletes in the top 30, it doesn’t rolldown to to top 31.
Assuming you are correct, the US is pretty safe. I do think they can get passed by 1 or 2 teams. But it will be hard for 3 squads to pass them because the teams behind them are competing at the same events so by default someone will not score well.
you can check but i would be pretty sure that norway has only one female that would qualify right now but they have a relay in right now and their relay is 9th in ranking
file:///Users/Peter/Downloads/Olympic_simulation_Paris_M-4.pdf
some might find this useful
.
6 teams, not counting those who earned automatic spots as host nation or 2022 or 2023 World MTR Champions. So take out Germany, GB, and France from the rankings and it becomes less of a concern.
you are sure on this? I presumed it worked the same way as the top 30 / if a country has 4 athletes in the top 30, it doesn’t rolldown to to top 31.
Assuming you are correct, the US is pretty safe. I do think they can get passed by 1 or 2 teams. But it will be hard for 3 squads to pass them because the teams behind them are competing at the same events so by default someone will not score well.
“The top six countries of the Mixed Relay Olympic Qualification Ranking as of March 25, 2024, will secure 2 men and 2 women quota places. In case a country already had secured their spots previously, the places will be allocated to the next highest ranked country.”
3 countries have auto qualified a team, France as host and GB and Germany as world champs. The next six teams also qualify. USA is in.
There are no more full qualifying races and only one race for those not already qualified to qualify the last 2 spots. After then countries can also qualify for the relay if have 2+2 athletes qualified for Olympic individual spots.
This has done under the radar, but I just looked into this:
The US sits 6th on the MTR list. From what I can tell, only 6 teams earn selection spots. There is basically no chance the US can move up. They should be able to hold off the teams below, but Belgium seems very dangerous.
The individual spots are uncertain, too. McElroy is the only one slotted for a spot and he is should be very unhappy right now. I don’t know the man at all so for all I know he didn’t want to race the MTR this weekend, but I know how I would feel about it.
I hope all these people can come and work together for their mutual good. If I am McElroy I know that they need him just as much as he needs them. Telling McElroy that Rider is the guy right now seems fool-hearty. If Matt has no shot at the Olympics, he should be racing PTO and 70.3. He would make more money.
I didn’t like the Katie Zafares over Spivey (and McDowall over McElroy too) discretionary selection, the panel got it right. Silver medal.
But man if we do what GB did to Bishop I might just be done with USAT. They would need a silver or gold to prove they were right to go with someone else again.