I will run first marathon outside of IM (did 8 of them) in my life next Sunday. I believe that I am close to run sub 3h on a flatter course, but I would love to hear from you who run 2:55 to 3h what are your times at 5K, 10K, 21.1…
I could do 5K for around 18:15/20, 10K low 38… Is it enough?
thanks!
I helped a few runners - running sub3. Your 38 minutes on 10k - should be good. Depending on how many long runs you have in your legs in the last 12-16 weeks? And how many of those k’s were around 4:10-4:15 min.
my longest run was 34km at 4:20/km avg (last 5K were sub 20min). Thats slower than I need for sub 3, but it felt relatively easy (maybe “not so hard” is the better expression).
And if that’s important my last 4 weeks were 100-120km
Those times should be fine. Depends on how well you can hold pace the 2nd half of a marathon. I’m about the same speed as you and have done a few marathons sub 3. Both were negative splits. I had my best times being very conservative the 1st 10k (4:20/k), 2nd 10k at race pace (4:10-4:15/k, 3rd 10k is when I focus and put down the hammer but stay around 4:10/k, last 10k whatever I had left. If you fuel well the 1st half and save some energy, the feeling of passing people the last 10k will push you.
My advice would be to stay away from the 3 pace group. Too many people and stressful for the entire race. Race your race.
I typically trained about 55-70k per week max. My body didn’t like all the beating so I still mixed in bike and swim. On some long runs, I would mix in some race pace work like 3x15min at 4:15/k on a 2 hour run.
In theory a 38 min 10 k means you have the engine for a sub 3 hour marathon. However, this is only true if you have good mileage and a few good long run workouts. It seems that you definitely do, so you should be good to go.
Good milage and a good engine - with a well timed taper, great nutrition and patience in the first 20k - I would not be surprised if you do a 2:56-2:57 :o)
Good luck !
Good milage and a good engine - with a well timed taper, great nutrition and patience in the first 20k - I would not be surprised if you do a 2:56-2:57 :o)
Good luck !
Thanks a lot. That’s a lot different than IM marathon where the most important thing is not to slow down too much at the second part
Hope that I will have a good day on Sunday
You’re in the ballpark, but there are tons of variables to consider. Weather and course profile will play a big role. I ran a mid 36 10k a few weeks out from Boston several years ago. Race day was 90+ degrees F, and I managed a 3:12. My best open marathon is 3:04, but I’ve never had a great marathon prep and had favorable weather on race day. I’ve run 1:20-1:21 in a half, so I have the legs, just haven’t seen it happen for me. Hopefully things will go well and your pacing will be good (err on the conservative side, as others have said).
Well get ready for some fun/pain! But you should be good assuming weather, wind, sun, correct pacing, etc. in 2019 ran Chicago in mid 2:44 and was high 16s for 5k, 35 for 10k, but didn’t run any running races fresh so those times might be faster if I was rested.
Biggest thing for me to learn after a handful of marathons was correct, even pacing. For the first half marathon it should feel comfortable.
Not easy, not hard. I tried to break the marathon up in 6 mile segments to break up the race and id only display lap distance, lap time, and pace on my watch. Mentally it was much better for me to see 6 minutes on my watch rather than the total time. But enjoy the race!
It’s fast enough, but you don’t have a big margin and the majority of people who try to run sub 3 with those times will fall apart the last 10k and not do it. Especially those that train with relatively low mileage.
Another vote of confidence from me. You have the speed and the necessary mileage.
As others have said, don’t overcook the pace early in the race. Relax early. It’s easy to trash your race by going out too fast in the opening miles, but near impossible to go out too slowly. Even if you were to cruise through the first couple of km at 20 seconds/km behind 3 hour pace, that’s still only 1 second/km you’ll have to pick up for the remainder of the race.
You’re in the ballpark, but there are tons of variables to consider. Weather and course profile will play a big role. I ran a **mid 36 10k **a few weeks out from Boston several years ago. Race day was 90+ degrees F, and I managed a 3:12. My best open marathon is 3:04, but I’ve never had a great marathon prep and had favorable weather on race day. I’ve run 1:20-1:21 in a half, so I have the legs, just haven’t seen it happen for me. Hopefully things will go well and your pacing will be good (err on the conservative side, as others have said).
Those 10km and half times should have looking at going sub 2:50, provided you’re putting in the mileage and consistent long runs.
People have mentioned but not stressed enough, the importance of not going out too fast. I’ve ran sub 3:00, however, I’ve blown it more times than I’ve succeeded, and every time, it’s because I went out too fast, thinking I could bank time.
To date, I’ve run 43 marathons, and have never successfully gone out at a faster than needed pace, to give me banked time at the end. Every time ended in slowing way down in the last miles, and missing my goal. The times I have set PRs and broke 3:00, I have gone out slower than (@6:55) required pace, picked it up near the end, and negative split.
BTW, at the time I was in the 3:00 marathon range, my 5k was 17:34, and 10k was 38:46
Yes, looks like you just got hit with tough conditions and I don’t think Boston is a fast course. You have the speed for 2:50 for sure on a “fast course and cool day.” I probably can’t break 38 in a 10k and have a 2:56 (Berlin) and 2:57 (Amsterdam). My fastest Half is like 1:24.
i’ve run 16:40 for 5K; 34:30 for 10K and 76:23 for the half; did several 20+ mile training runs…and my 3 marathons were 3:15, 3:01.49 and 3:01.49 - last one being 21 years ago. Unlucky to get warm days every time and end up being a cramped up mess…but it isn’t just the heat. i remember a few people i knew trotting past me after about 20 miles (and running 2:57) who were not even considered competition in any shorter race.
I ran 2:57 for the full off of a low 1:24 half-marathon. My PR for 5K is 18:51.
Of course, I am female and was in my mid-40s at the time. Younger runners and male runners tend to have a sharper differential between shorter and longer distance paces, in my observation.
I will run first marathon outside of IM (did 8 of them) in my life next Sunday. I believe that I am close to run sub 3h on a flatter course, but I would love to hear from you who run 2:55 to 3h what are your times at 5K, 10K, 21.1…
I could do 5K for around 18:15/20, 10K low 38… Is it enough?
thanks!
When I was at my peak running form I had around 18 flat at 5K (didn’t do a lot of short races) and half 1:22:25. My best marathon was 2:56:56, but I collapsed at the end, the first part was like 1:25 and second 1:32.
I think you’re close, but you need some luck and pacing discipline.
I agree with above mentioned pacing comments. It’s much more important for running. I found in comparison to triathlons long running races are about keeping yourself on a thin edge all the time. A bit over the edge in the first half and with 5 miles to go your heart rate suddenly jumps 20 bpm and pain increases by 3/10 for the same pace. This sucks.
My best times for the short distances were quite consistent for a few years. My best times were 17:30 5k, 36:30 10K, and 1:24 half. I could never crack 3 hrs. Best was 3:06.It was the last few miles that always did me in. Thinking back, I should have run more miles per week and maybe a few more long runs. I also struggled to concentrate - I found marathon running long and boring.
My best times for the short distances were quite consistent for a few years. My best times were 17:30 5k, 36:30 10K, and 1:24 half. I could never crack 3 hrs. Best was 3:06.It was the last few miles that always did me in. Thinking back, I should have run more miles per week and maybe a few more long runs. I also struggled to concentrate - I found marathon running long and boring.
That’s a significant falling away in times over the longer distances.
Second time I’ve posted this on this thread.
Those 10km and half times should have looking at going sub 2:50, provided you’re putting in the mileage and consistent long runs.
Certainly helps if you enjoy what you’re doing.