The LBS guys say the same and add that it’s because the rear tire is more load bearing than the front. Also, it’s a bigger PITA to change, including the greasy fingers. Therefore, it’s the likely choice for a flat.
I agree with the idea that the rear flats more often than the front and I think that the load distribution is only part of it, the rear tire wears much faster in part because of the increased load and also the force driving the bike forward. Because the tire wears so much faster the likely hood that the rubber between the pavement/glass/wire (or whatever causes the puncture) is thinner at any given time.
N=1 rather than stats, but I’ve been riding bikes for 20+ years and typically clock >5,000 miles a year so may be worth something!
I average about 1 puncture per year despite riding on (and commuting) some pretty rough roads with a fair bit of debris. I’m pretty good at checking my tires and taking out bits of glass or flint that have embedded themselves in there. I also generally take the view that once a tire has punctured once it’s only a fairly short matter of time until it punctures again so I tend to replace them after a puncture (have tried supergluing cuts on newish tires but doesn’t seem to work that well).
In all that time I can only remember 2 front tire punctures. One was a complete freak piece of debris which completely ripped open a Conti GP4000II that only had ~100 miles on it. The other was when I found a broken spoke just before a ride, did a hurried switch to an old front wheel with an old (~8 years) tire on with cracks in the sidewalls. Predictable result…
So in my case I’d guess the ratio is something like 10:1 rear:front. And would be 20:1 if I’d taken a few minutes to switch a decent tire and tube onto that old wheel.
My assumption is it has little to do with weight distribution.
It’s more a matter that the rear tire tracks differently than the front. When you see glass, you adjust your front tire to avoid the glass, however your rear tire tracks over it because it’s on a different path than the front tire. Since you have more control over your front tire, it’s easy to avoid debris with it compared to your rear tire … hence, more rear flats than front flats.
In my experience the rear flats more often. I use Conti Gator Hardshell year 'round for training. I’ve watched the wear dots & replaced them when indicated–but also look each ride for cuts or other tread issues. But to answer you, I’ve had way more flats in the rear tire over the years, it seems to just wear faster as that is where most of the weight is centered.
I don’t have any firm figures but my experience on club/group rides over the years is that heavier riders get more flats. This would consistent with more rear wheel puncture due to more weight being place on the rear.
As previously mentioned I think more weight equals more tire wear which is the other part of the equation. Certainly rear tires wear a lot fast than front tires.
My one and only flat during racing and/or training, happened during my Ironman (of course). It was my front tire… something cut the tire. Screwed my head up, then my head proceeded to screw my day up… fuck that day, fuck it so very much.
Finished, but no where near where I was capable of. >:I
Weirdly enough I have flatted more fronts than rears.
I do remember that most of those front flats were due to direct impact with large rocks or other large objects, so the front wheel took the hit first. 2 of those were in the haze of race-oxygen deprivation. So I suspect with direct impact flats, the front may take more of the hit than the rear.
I was also guilty of not realizing that those impacts did cause real damage to the good-condition tires, and I got recurrent flats for awhile before I changed out the tire completely (one was pretty much brand new, but suffered a small slit which apparently widened with the tube in place.)
I think most of my pinch flats were also front wheel too.