Estimating run performance from cycling power

So I did my first multisport event over the weekend, a duathlon (I’m no swimmer). To this point I’ve been strictly a road racer. The road racing and cycling training definitely showed up as my strongest part in this event, as I posted a top 5 time on the bike portion (>24 mph for 17+ miles) despite only riding tempo instead of at threshold. I finished in the top 15% overall and wasted about a minute more than necessary in the transitions. Still, if I can get my run times down I should be a consistent top 10 finisher. My pace over the weekend hovered around 7:00/mile for the 2 5k portions.

I’ve been running off and on the last 2 years. Had to stop last summer due to an injury and again in December due to a bruised rib from a cyclocross accident. Been running again for about 7 weeks now and am wondering just how much faster I can get.

Looking at a couple of websites (http://www.coachgordo.com/forum2/upload/lofiversion/index.php/t3512.html and http://www.eatel.net/~mikec/aero.html), there are 2 wildly different estimates for power on the run. Taking my current stats at 68 kg (trying to get down to 65), the predicted power for me to hit a 6:00/mile pace is 300 W (Coach Gordo site) or 241 W (simple formula). That’s a big spread. On the bike, my hour power is in the 275-280 W range and unfortunately my VO2 power (or say 5 minute power) is only around 325-330 W. Short term power is the pits (1 minute best of around 475 W). I would say I’m built for endurance, not sprint sports.

For those riding with a power meter, which model tends to more accurately correlate your running speeds to cycling power?

I can’t imagine trying to compare…

Biking = quads

Running = hamstrings

Obviously, that is an oversimplification, but those are the dominant muscle groups. Look at elite athletes in the two individual sports; runners would, generally, NOT be good cyclists, and vice versa. And triathletes are such a varied group, I don’t see how you can extrapolate…

Not to get too OT here, but unless you are running backwards, the dominant muscles in running are the quadriceps, not the hamstrings.

Richard

Actually, they are not. Look at any sprinter. The driving muscle is the hamstring. Quads are stabilizer muscles only. Unless you run like crap. Then you might use your quads equally.

Let me rephrase, among runners with good technique, the hamstring is the dominant muscle.

Hamstrings are responsible for knee flexion, and quadriceps are responsible for knee extension. The reason that you see many hamstring pulls in sprinters is due to the muscle imbalance with the quadriceps overpowering the hamstrings.

Richard

Hamstrings are knee flexors, but they are also hip extensors. Hip extension is an important part of running.

I think you mean hamstring working with hip flexor, otherwise, your legs will stay behind you and never move forward for the recovery phase :-). I agree it is an oversimplification.

Provided that your technique and experience level is in both sports is similar, a short weekly uphill TT on the bike will tell you loads about your running fitness. A flat bike TT does not say anything about how fast you will run as it does not take weight into the equation. If you can find a hill that is around 6-8% that lasts ~4-8 min and do it weekly, you’ll know when you are in shape to also run quickly. Personally, I have a shorter hill that I time all out (ie 170-180 bpm) as part of a ride on a weekly basis. When I climb it in < 4:30, I am ready to run ~ 4 min per K pace in an Olympic to half Ironman tri.

No hills in the area (1 foot elevation gain per mile), but I did take my bike with me to Japan in January and my climbs up 6-8% grades lasted 10-15 minutes and I took them right at threshold (hour power) with plenty in the tank for the next hill.