I am about to enter my 14 day-ish taper for my “A” race (Austria) and it got me thinking about the whole process and its effect on the various legs of the race.
-I’m not tapering the swim in any meaningful way (lifelong distance swimmer)
-For the bike, I’m following the TR high volume 70.3 plan which has a ~2 week gradual taper
-For the run, I’ll reduce volume from 40-25 mpw (BarryP plan)
I understand the effect of tapering on the run (at least, how it makes me feel): fresher legs, higher energy stores = faster run split. However, for the bike, should I expect my split to be any different on the same course, than if I wasn’t rested? For instance, I have done 2 HIM this year (my first year at this distance) without any substantial rest (trained through them) and my NP has been right around the 80% mark for both. My runs were about 10 minutes slower than my open HM time, though the HIM courses were much hillier (delta ~1,000 ft of gain). I do attribute this delta somewhat to fatigue and not necessarily overcooking the bike (though I can’t be sure).
So question is: Do I just keep my target NP at 80%, and expect my run to be closer to my open HM time due to the taper and fresher legs? Or is there a school of thought and/or experience that says you can slightly increase wattage (maybe 81-82%) and get away with it during your peak? Or is this all n=1 conjecture and I won’t know until I try it?
Edit: To summarize, when you taper - where does the time drop come from (theoretically)? A tiny bit from the swim? A lot from the run? Any from the bike?
Thanks