Dubai 70.3 predictions

well, the first big hit-out of the year for many athletes is this weekend.

some tantalizing prospects: laura phillip coming into form, ryf says that she’s healthy again. thorsten over at trirating.com actually has blum finishing in 3rd, getting out-biked by van riel and baekkegard.

historically it’s an extremely fast course, and the weekend forecast looks pretty good - high 20s and relatively modest wind. bahrain has usually featured splits that suggest just rampant pack riding (and swimming, and running) whereas dubai generally seems a bit more wide open; on the other hand it’s pancake-flat and it’s reasonable to expect at least a handful of the contenders (blu, baekkegaard, heemeyrck, salvisberg) to come out of the water together.

so: what are our predictions?

Blu will win
.

… it’s reasonable to expect at least a handful of the contenders (blu, baekkegaard, heemeyrck, salvisberg) to come out of the water together.

I imagine Marten Van Riel will also swim at the front

I’m curious to see if Marten will hit the swim hard. I have no idea if that is a good idea, but I want to watch it play out.
He’s the most underrated guy in the sport, and will be hard to beat.

But Kristian is an Olympic champ for a reason. So if you make me bet, I’m betting KB.

Seconded. Blu will win, even if he’s outbiked. Personally, I really doubt he’ll be outbiked. Regardless, I’ll enjoy following along with the day. Another 70.3 record? I think we could see 1:06 something. I’d be surprised to see anyone within 3 minutes, but we’ll see. I think it would be incredible to see a real race on the men’s side. I just don’t think it’ll happen.

On the women’s side, I don’t think Philipp can beat Ryf this time, but Ryf has some uncertainty and they’ve been close.

I’m curious to see if Marten will hit the swim hard. I have no idea if that is a good idea, but I want to watch it play out.
He’s the most underrated guy in the sport, and will be hard to beat.

But Kristian is an Olympic champ for a reason. So if you make me bet, I’m betting KB.

What does it mean when someone says “ He’s the most underrated guy in the sport” ?

This is where KB set the 70.3 WR? I would expect something fast any time he lines up. Hopefully Ryf puts 2021 behind her & gets off to a good start in 2022.

This is where KB set the 70.3 WR? I would expect something fast any time he lines up. Hopefully Ryf puts 2021 behind her & gets off to a good start in 2022.

i thought it was bahrain, but maybe it was dubai. i get those races mixed up . . .

I’m curious to see if Marten will hit the swim hard. I have no idea if that is a good idea, but I want to watch it play out.
He’s the most underrated guy in the sport, and will be hard to beat.

But Kristian is an Olympic champ for a reason. So if you make me bet, I’m betting KB.

What does it mean when someone says “ He’s the most underrated guy in the sport” ?

https://www.triathlon.org/athletes/results/40311/marten_van_riel

it means he is the most consitent itu athelte in the world and never had a thread on slowtwitch.

I’m curious to see if Marten will hit the swim hard. I have no idea if that is a good idea, but I want to watch it play out.
He’s the most underrated guy in the sport, and will be hard to beat.

But Kristian is an Olympic champ for a reason. So if you make me bet, I’m betting KB.

What does it mean when someone says “ He’s the most underrated guy in the sport” ?

https://www.triathlon.org/athletes/results/40311/marten_van_riel

it means he is the most consitent itu athelte in the world and never had a thread on slowtwitch.

Maybe he should hire Talbot Cox?

Didnt he win olympic gold and break both the all time 70.3 record and full Ironman record on debuts? If he goes sub 7 and wins double IMWC this year as planned he would be the goat within a 3 year span of achievements. Also going for longest extensions.

What does it mean when someone says “ He’s the most underrated guy in the sport” ?

Not just that he’s never had a thread on slowtwitch, but I know actual long course pro’s who fail to realize he is a TT bike away from taking a podium slot/victory at any 70.3 he likes. They think he isn’t a great runner, and don’t realize his cycling strength.
He has raced one 70.3. He won by 4 minutes (Josh Amburger 2nd), and that was in 2018.

He is in Europe. And I’m in North America. So I’m sure that plays into it.
I didn’t hear any talk about him heading into the Olympics or in discussion for the World Championship Series. He finished 4th and 2nd. He is incredibly well rounded as an athlete.

I don’t actually think he’ll beat Kristian, but I do think he can make it as close as anyone.

And it has started

7 mins into the swim
.

Out of T2
.
7CDD220B-A4FA-401C-9058-C81EE50D1ED1.jpeg

Looks like KB got caught out leading the 2nd pack, that or he ran into the lead of that group to T1. A little over a minute is just enough to get out of sight so to speak, and if the leaders are hammering together, then could be tough for him to bridge up quickly on his own. Anyone behind him an uber biker to help him with the chase?

Pieter Heemeryck can ride. Not sure a flat course suits him, but he was 5th at worlds in 2018. And that was a hell of a top 4 to be behind.
He’s 10 back of KB out of T1

Ya, it looks like all the big bike power is up front right now, will be interesting how many will group up of those 5 and ride together. Or will one just take a flier and go from the gun and try to solo with a possible Moto? I believe I heard in past races here that they are quite a problem(unless you are in front!) with getting in too close for too long…

And as I recall, not much marshaling in this part of the world either, so everyone knows they can push it and get away with marginal stuff.

I just started watching…
Here’s a link.
https://www.dubaisports.ae/content/dubaisports/livestreaming/channel-1.html

Looks like DB is on the front, Marten right behind.

Thanks for the link, and now we can see why the bike is so fast there. Almost a constant line of traffic right next to the riders blowing by them. From the overhead it looks like the guys are riding clean as far as distance goes, all one can do really… The leaders putting some serious time into KB already, if they keep this up, he will not have enough room to make a catch in the run…

Blu will win

Looks like I NAILED it!!!

😂