https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/alex-dowsett-to-target-uci-hour-record-on-december-12/
Now this is interesting! A record attempt at sea level that targets Victor’s altitude record. Lots of things to unpack, like he didn’t have a contract for next year until recently and hasn’t announced where he is going, but ISN is backing the attempt. Doesn’t sound like he will ride a Factor (team sponsor). He was at the wind tunnel last week.
Interesting to hear him say he only needs ~400W to do it. IIRC, Wiggo posted 440 in his attempt. This also begs the question of what Ganna could do, given how he has dominated flat TTs this year.
He mentioned that he’ll be using a track-specific bike, so possibly the UK Olympic bikes.
I’m thinking that this attempt was originally planned as a last ditch bid to get a contract for 2021, but then he won a Giro stage and that become moot. However, given that he finished the Giro strong, he decided to go for it.
Ganna will destroy the record if he ever puts a serious effort into it.
Ya I am expecting him to ride the Hope/Lotus. I don’t think he is as tall as Wiggo, so maybe more aero. I also figure that things like skinsuit materials and the like can drop his CdA further, better tires/wheels, chain,… Let’s see if he rocks a Tempor.
Pretty sure he will use the tempor. He’s used it whenever his team obligations haven’t prevented it, so probably knows it’s the fastest helmet for him.
Ganna will destroy the record if he ever puts a serious effort into it.
All the more reason for Dowsett to give it a go. Ganna might be the first legitimate 56k rider. I don’t think anyone has been close to his times this year. Same planet, different worlds.
I really very much like Alex Dowsett, so happy he make another attempt.
Agree with the fact Ganna will kill the game at some point. So make sense to do it before Ganna.
However, most simulations give a 1km (roughly) advantage to an altitude attempt (2000m). A Manchester attempt is sub-optimal regarding performance. Alex probably had more chances of success at altitude (Aguascalientes, …).
I guess Alex do this in Manchester more for :
Calculations time !
Based on the data of his first record (358 watts), my evaluation of his CdA was 0,174
All parameters remaining equal, he need 400w to overcome Victor Campenaerts record and do 55.1 km
If he improve on aero with :
and go down to 0,172 CdA all other parameters remaining equal, then he can establish a new hour record with 395 watts. This is something he can do, his good shape FTP being regularly around 400w.
Let’s hope air pressure will be favorable for him, as it is a big parameter in the equation.
I’m guessing that by doing it in December there’s a good chance we’ll have a low pressure over us in England (shiiite for outdoors riding with wind and rain. But the dampness and low pressure will help reduce the aero drag.
I assume they’ll be asked to wind up the heaters too in there to get the air that little bit thinner.
Should be fun. I was at Manchester velodrome for his first attempt and he looked as fresh as a daisy getting off the bike… it seemed like he could have put down a fair few more watts.
Cheers, R.
I’m guessing that by doing it in December there’s a good chance we’ll have a low pressure over us in England (shiiite for outdoors riding with wind and rain. But the dampness and low pressure will help reduce the aero drag.
I assume they’ll be asked to wind up the heaters too in there to get the air that little bit thinner.
Does he have a window of days so they can pick the crappiest high humidity low pressure day (and then crank up heat inside to the right level). Lionel needs to fly in for a pre hour of warmup haha (its an ST thread, he has to be part of the thread).
You arent wrong there. No one near him this year in TTs
One of my favorite riders as well.
i don’t have a link to the interview but Alex has said/implied he set his original record riding conservatively to safely get the record and felt he could have done more. Hope so.
For UCI attempts you cannot schedule a window. Have to pick a date.
IIRC Boardman set the temperature to 24 C and later on said that he should have gone up closer to 30 C. Since these speeds/power are way out of my league, I have no clue how well the body would cool down on 400 w and 55 kph at 30 C, but summer TTs at 40-43 kph are scorchers.
I agree all signs point to Ganna (eventually) smashing it. However I think “when” depends a lot on when he goes sub4 in the IP, (and perhaps also when Ineos will allow it) so I wouldn’t look for it in the near future, certainly not this side of Tokyo (whenever that happens)
I think Manchester is the pick because it’s reasonably quick and is the easiest logistically, especially considering Covid. I think Bolivia/Aguas is almost impossible at the moment.
I think if he is using similar equipment to what we’ve seen this year he’ll have gained a bit cda wise vs. 2015. Just having the extensions form fittting should be worth a few watts, plus advancements in skinsuit and helmets (will be interesting if it’s the POC or the UKSI helmet that realistically nobody outside GB knows any data on since 2012)
As his goal in 15 was just to break Dennis’ record, it made sense to pace the way he did, as there were still a lot of unknowns and Dowsett was coming off broken clavicle. He lifted the pace fairly aggressively at the end, so had to be working below what he was capable of then… would have been an interesting “what if” if he’d paced 100% in 2015… would that have changed Wiggins attempt any? May have had a whole different history of the hour
I give him fair odds. He’s got some smart people poking around him (I feel like Xavier is somewhere in the shadows, and I’ve seen Hutch poking around too) and he’s got the right background for it.
Yes, I guess in 2015 he paced along Dennis record, and at the end was a bit disappointed with the power measured, indicating he could have gone faster…
With some aero improvements and a little luck (air pressure, good legs, …) , I guess he have a fair chance.
Regarding equipment :
in his video, we see him using HJC helmet in the wind tunnel. In the pictures (CyclingNews), the logo HJC is masked (photoshop).
Courtesy to current sponsor while he test various helmets performances, same way he did during Euro / World TT while using POC Tempor and Spe Shiv ? Probably
HJC was sponsoring Lotto Soudal this year. A sign he could go there to replace Hansen (now Triathlete 
in the Caleb Ewan sprint lead-out ? Maybe, maybe not
The reason I think it could be a tall order for him to ride 55 kph at sea level is simply based on recent race statistics. Alex D has been constantly placing behind Victor C this “season”. At the Giro 20, he could not crack the top 20 in any of the time trials and his placing at the tt worlds was a bit lower than 2019. I reckon that perhaps he knew no-one was going to beat Ganna for the stage so no point killing yourself, but I would have expected a higher placing. I like the guy and I am rooting for him but was a bit shocked he is going in such short notice.
I 100% agree that 55km will be a tall order. I think it’ll be a tall order for anyone, (mayhaps besides Ganna) especially at sea level.
That said, Worlds this year was STACKD and everyone was pretty good on form. And while Victor and Dowsett are an easy comparison to make, it’s not totally fair, as I think AD was(is?) still hopeful of Tokyo which probably requires a little different prep especially with the C19 shuffle.
Dowsett should also have an advantage on riding the black vs. VC.
That said again… not disagreeing with you. It’s going to be a nail biter I expect
From his video he’s been considering it since the start of the year and planning for it since June time. So not really short notice!
And at UK 25 champs he held something like 415w for 46mins so his numbers are going to be close (else I’m sure he wouldn’t be going for it…)
I think recent race results are more an indication of how many other riders could be capable of putting considerable distance into whatever Dowsett manages, rather than a reflection on the likelihood of him breaking it! But I agree it does feel like it will be touch and go for him
IIRC Boardman set the temperature to 24 C and later on said that he should have gone up closer to 30 C. Since these speeds/power are way out of my league, I have no clue how well the body would cool down on 400 w and 55 kph at 30 C, but summer TTs at 40-43 kph are scorchers.
To my best knowledge as long as the air is cooler than your body technically you can cool yourself, down, but the rate of cooling at 35C is going to be less than at 32C which will be less than 28C which will be less than 20C.
But as long as you have sufficient airflow you WILL COOL, you just need enough. This is why when you arrive at T2 in Kona, and STOP you suddenly overheat in transition (because you have zero airflow)…then you start running and it feels cooler than in transition (because you have airflow). The more work you do, the airflow you need to take away excess heat, but if the speed (airflow) is high enough, you can go with a hotter ambiant temp and get the exact same cooling effect for a fixed amount of heat generation.
It is also why it feels hotter on the run in kona than on the bike…it “feels” cooler at 30-40kph than at 10-15kph. My powermeter from Kona suggests the hottest ambiant temps were all on the QueenK on the return from Waikaloa, (like 35-40C)…it is never that hot on Alii drive by the time the run comes around but if feels way hotter because of moving slower, even though workload is close to identical at IM run intensity and bike intensity.
So I would not be surprised that at 55 kph, it does not feel that hot at 30-35C. I guess the tradeoff would be air resistance.