What’s the average length of time between pros using a new thing and it actually gets announced? And the length of time between the announcement and the item being actually available to the masses?
So for example if pros still use the old SRAM Red in 2010, what’s the average ealiest time a new refresh for Red becomes available to the mass markets?
I know things are never certain, just trying to get some ballpark figures here. Just rough averages, guesstimates!
Unless it’s being debuted at the Giro now, it’s probably not going to be ready for 2011. TdF stuff might be ready in 2012, but likely not 2011. Of course, that’s massive ball-parking. But in general, if you see it at the Giro - like the Shiv - you can wager it to could be around for the next year. If it’s TdF debut, then probably two years - so May 2010 → January 2011; July 2010 → January 2012.
The refresh rate is much slower than with something like computers/phones/etc for obvious reasons. Plus it’s VERY hard to keep a lid on stuff, since pros are using it in races with lots of media.
Of course, I could totally be lying to you to sell you on “old” technology to clear out inventory.
Cannondale is the worst. They came out with a new model every year for a while. In 2006 the Six13 was the coolest. I’m not even sure they make it any more. At least Trek waits 5-6 years between upgrades on the Madone.
Aside from the hidden shifters and Di2, I cannot see a reason to upgrade the Shimano stuff. The previous crank is cooler looking than the new one IMO.
I want you to sell me on the old technology, because if it was the best last year, then it is still pretty damn good this year and I’m buying it for a much cheaper price than if I’d bought it when was the newest technology.
If I’m willing to go used then when the OP sells his outdated stuff, I can buy it even cheaper.
Unless it’s being debuted at the Giro now, it’s probably not going to be ready for 2011. TdF stuff might be ready in 2012, but likely not 2011. Of course, that’s massive ball-parking. But in general, if you see it at the Giro - like the Shiv - you can wager it to could be around for the next year. If it’s TdF debut, then probably two years - so May 2010 → January 2011; July 2010 → January 2012.
The refresh rate is much slower than with something like computers/phones/etc for obvious reasons. Plus it’s VERY hard to keep a lid on stuff, since pros are using it in races with lots of media.
Of course, I could totally be lying to you to sell you on “old” technology to clear out inventory.
If you equipped a bike with the best stuff made in 1990 or 2000 compared to the very best now, would you be faster? Frames, bars and wheels are more aero, but the rest of the changes are mostly cosmetic. So the stuff you describe, it doesn’t bother me at all. But then, I’m running a Shimano 600 RD and have been for like 10 years. My crankset came off eBay for $20 and was probably intended for BMX bikes. Beyond a certain level of quality, components don’t matter as long as they don’t break.
Chad
Do you hate the feeling of buying something and something better and newer comes out from the same company in 1 month?
No not at all. Reason: I enjoy doing that activity more, than obsessing about the fancy equipment that I am doing it with.
Your statement could apply to just about any sort of consumer good, and surveys and studies have shown, that is the reason why there is such high levels of un-happiness and in-security in North America, despite abundant wealth and having the “best” of everything.
I like your posts, Fleck. I picked up a copy of Small is Beautiful a few weeks back. It is waiting for me when I come home in a few days after the semester closes.
Full disclosure- I upgraded last year to a new bike - a Cervelo R3. I had been riding an aluminum Cervelo for 10 years with, horrors Ultegra - 9 speed.
However to give the new wheels, a bit of old-school feel, I kitted it out, with DA* 7800*!
It works perfectly fine and I am sure will for years.
Despite being 3 decades old now, the Schumacher book is completely current - a must read.
I like buying “last years technology”, since you often get it for a song (relatively speaking) compared to the “latest and greatest”.
Given that last year’s top-of-the-line doesn’t suddenly suck one year later, it’s not like you are missing out on much. Or anything.
Other than perhaps trace amounts of hype. And a much lighter wallet.
My '99 Klein road bike w/ 9 spd Ultegra (back when this was bleeding-edge tech) still shifts pretty much identically as well as the SRAM Red group on my P4.
There is zero reason for me to ever “upgrade” that bike or components, 'cuz they still all work just fine.
