Do blockbuster NFL trades work?

And the corollary should QBs be paid?

I read an article about the Panthers and Browns. Then there’s Russ in Denver. Bears with Mitch. I can’t think of a trade off the top of my head where mortgaging the future worked.

Bengals are garbage with Burrow off a rookie contract. Chiefs are down. Brady and Brees took less money to win it seemed.

Rams won a SB with Stafford

I was looking at these a while back. After seeing the same thing you did, lots of big trades for QB’s with the QB getting a ton of money and the team giving up a lot of draft capital.

The Rams/Lions trade with Stafford and Goff changing teams worked for both. The Rams won a Super Bowl and the Lions with Goff and the picks have gotten a lot better.

I think there were a couple others that worked out. But there are a ton that don’t. There is a reason teams are willing to trade a veteran (aka old) QB.

The 2022-2023 Broncos will probably tell you a blockbuster trade isn’t worth it.

The Hardknocks series where they covered the NY Giants during the off season leading to the draft was interesting to see a bit of the behind the scenes thinking on trades.

They traded Saquan Barkley (to the Eagles, no less!) largely because of finances. To give him what he was asking for would’ve meant compromising a bunch at other positions as in not having money to pay for the right players they needed to get for those positions. And at the end of the day teams need to manage the budget, spread the dollars, for best return.

I never quite understood players that max’d out their own pockets to the detriment of the team. Seems like they don’t make it to the end of their contract term because the large contract becomes a liability for the team and they cut their losses including the player. That seems less ideal long term for the player.

Ok. If you say so.

Part of it is the collective bargaining agreement that there is in the NFL compared to the other major pro sports. Suspending general disbelief for the insanity of it all. It is the sport with the shortest average career span, highest risk of long-term disability, and least available guaranteed money to spread around.

QB is the least interchangeable part, due to scheme and individual skill set. And there remains and intangible. Peyton being a sure thing out of college is way more the exception than the rule.

I was going to say, I think LAR and DET are pretty happy with their deals.

This.

The Giants and the Chargers each got a lot of value of the Eli to Phillip Rivers trade.

They sign the huge deal bc they get big signing bonuses that are fully guaranteed. Then if they play well, they do it again for another big signing bonus. If they get cut, at least they got their signing bonus.

There is also a lot of ego going on. If someone gets paid, they all want paid more.

Ok, I get that the sign on bonus is an immediate cash now vs. long term contract terms that may get renegotiated partway. But why does the signing bonus need to be tied to the contract amount?

E.g. I’ve had salary negotiations where instead of the higher base pay I was asking for, the counter was to make that amount up via a signing bonus instead, and/or to guarantee the end of year bonus amount. That gets me what I wanted (at least for year1).

Of course, my $ discussions were at a whole other scale than the amounts pro athletes here are talking about :rofl:

A QB with desire to live a long healthy life should be happy to load up his line and give few $$

My Browns are doing wonderful with the Watson trade.

I get to revisit my Factory of Sadness days.
Reminds me why we celebrate 1-31 as Hue Jackson Day.

I was talking to my wife about this today. I don’t know if it’s worse to be a Browns fan, knowing that every season is futile, or Steelers fan with false hope every season only to be congratulated for consistent mediocrity.

I also don’t understand how anyone can still be a Browns fan. It offers you nothing whatsoever, like an abusive one sided relationship.

Us Browns fans don’t understand it either. I havent lived in Ohio in almost 40 years but i can’t bring myself to follow another team. Although I am pulling for Baker. He gave us a glimmer of hope until Stefanski decided he needed to run him off.

As for comparing us to Steelers fans, how many Super Bowls have you seen your team win?

Personally witnessed and remembered, two. A third was a mere Mendenhall unfumble away. The fourth, screw you Neil O’Donnell. Countless other promising campaigns interrupted by Brady’s Patriots.

Those were a long time ago. But we haven’t had a losing season since!

The closest ive come to seeing a Browns Super Bowl is Red Right 88 (Sipe throws interception in the end zone), The Fumble, and the Drive.
Yes, all of those are plays that kept us out of the big game.
We have good company- Lions, Jags, and Texans.

An analogy to blockbuster trades might be the statistical analyses of #1 picks. Generally, the #1 pick is too costly. Yes, he is likely to be better than the next picks, but the probability is not much greater than 50%. When you factor in the higher salary (plus whatever you gave up to get that pick), you’re likely worse off trading to move up to get the #1 pick.

The book Scorecasting has a good analysis of this. Richard Thaler also did work on it, though I have not read his analysis.

Ask Hershel Walker and the Vikings. Then ask the Dallas Cowboys.

Or Ditka and the Saints.

Ricky Williams actually had a decent career, not worth eight draft picks (Washington got a first, third fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh round 1999 pick AND the second overall and third round of 2000). Those picks ended up being Cade McNown, Desmond Clark and Lavar Arrington.