Could you afford to buy your house today?

I did a little experiment.

Averaged Zillow and Redfin for the current price.

Used the same cash amount for down payment (I put over 20% originality so the math works. You’ll have to account for delta somehow if you only put down 20% originally)

used 7% as the mortgage rate (default in the calculator I’d probably be able to squeeze 50 BPs).

My monthly mortgage payment would be over double due to price appreciation and increased rates…(tax rate is the same so overall payment is not quite double).

Could I afford it. Yes. If I was buying now however I’d probably be buying a different house.

It matters a lot whether the person is a first-time home buyer. About 2/3d of home sales are to people who already own a home. If I were buying my home today, I’d also be selling into this high-priced market.

It matters a lot whether the person is a first-time home buyer. About 2/3d of home sales are to people who already own a home. If I were buying my home today, I’d also be selling into this high-priced market.

I was a first time home buyer

You can make adjustments for selling your old house and adjust the down-payment amount

Nope.

yes, but I would not want to. My house is not worth what it could sell for to be honest.

We could afford to because our salaries have gone way up, but if we were starting out again we would be living in a dump.

We live (in my opinion) one of the nicest places to live just outside of boston and if we had to start now we would have to live way out.

I did a little experiment.

Averaged Zillow and Redfin for the current price.

Used the same cash amount for down payment (I put over 20% originality so the math works. You’ll have to account for delta somehow if you only put down 20% originally)

used 7% as the mortgage rate (default in the calculator I’d probably be able to squeeze 50 BPs).

My monthly mortgage payment would be over double due to price appreciation and increased rates…(tax rate is the same so overall payment is not quite double).

Could I afford it. Yes. If I was buying now however I’d probably be buying a different house.

Well, we bought our house two years ago and Zillow still shows it at the price we paid for it, so yes, we could buy it again today.

All that other fancy math you mention doesn’t really apply, we bought the house with the proceeds of selling our last house. No mortgage involved. One advantage of being old.

If I step back to my last house, the answer is still yes. We lived in it for about 20 years and it sold for about twice what we paid. Our income about doubled in that time as well so it would be a wash.

I bought my house on Memorial Day weekend in 2019. So exactly five years ago. I paid $700K and my mortgage rate is a 2.75% 15 year fixed. I put down $150,000 so 21.4% down payment. My P&I is about $3,500/month

Realtor app estimates are between $1.3M and $1.4M right now.

At $1.35M with 21.4% down and at a 6.5% 15 year fixed my P&I would be $9,200/month. Add in taxes and insurance and my guess it would be $11,300/month or so.

Could I afford that? On paper… sure. Would I pay that? Fuck no!

Let me emphasize this was just five years ago.

No way. I was a first time home buyer. My house has gone up between 250–300%.

the couple next door bought 4 years ago for a million and it would sell for about 900 thousand now. But their rate would be double now. I think they could afford they both have good jobs. They would likely be driving cheaper cars I think.

I bought my house on Memorial Day weekend in 2019. So exactly five years ago. I paid $700K and my mortgage rate is a 2.75% 15 year fixed. I put down $150,000 so 21.4% down payment. My P&I is about $3,500/month

Realtor app estimates are between $1.3M and $1.4M right now.

At $1.35M with 21.4% down and at a 6.5% 15 year fixed my P&I would be $9,200/month. Add in taxes and insurance and my guess it would be $11,300/month or so.

Could I afford that? On paper… sure. Would I pay that? Fuck no!

Let me emphasize this was just five years ago.

And that’s without a pool!

Interesting.

Bought in October of 2020 for $190k, only had to put 10% down and 4% interest (second home). Payment is ~ $1400/month.

Zillow says it’s now worth $322,800, so same math would put a loan of $290k at 7.5% around $2700 (everything was just re-val’d here and making a bit of a guess on new tax rate). That’s essentially 50% of my take-home per month.

I have essentially no other bills, so while I could afford it, I don’t think I would pull the trigger.

Pretty nuts out there.

  • Jeff

sort of a similar situation

we just sold our house to what seemed like a young couple (but probably about same age we were 18 years ago when we bought it) making a big move from a rented or family owned townhouse. Over 18 years prices have “only” gone up about 45% - mid 600s to low 900s - which is about 2% compounded per year on average, but most of that has been in the last 5 years. Mortgage rates are about the same as they were when we purchased the house in 2006,** so it should be more affordable than when we bought it**…But the $740K plus mortgage they had looked a bit scary to me even though they could afford it.

Slightly related - from experience, being house-rich and cash-poor is a miserable option to pick. Better than house-poor and cash poor - but still miserable.

yes, but I would not want to. My house is not worth what it could sell for to be honest.

that’s literally a definition of value.

No clue. But we bought our house for $265k 15 years ago. Now I could probably sell it for $900k. I’d be very uncomfortable taking on that kind of mortgage.

No way. I was a first time homebuyer. My house is gone up between 250–300%.

how much did you have to spend on tornado repair? i would imagine there are quite a few in your “situation” in town who are going to be hammered by capital gains.

I bought my house on Memorial Day weekend in 2019. So exactly five years ago. I paid $700K and my mortgage rate is a 2.75% 15 year fixed. I put down $150,000 so 21.4% down payment. My P&I is about $3,500/month

Realtor app estimates are between $1.3M and $1.4M right now.

At $1.35M with 21.4% down and at a 6.5% 15 year fixed my P&I would be $9,200/month. Add in taxes and insurance and my guess it would be $11,300/month or so.

Could I afford that? On paper… sure. Would I pay that? Fuck no!

Let me emphasize this was just five years ago.

And that’s without a pool!

A house went for sale a couple miles away in our ‘hood. Same model as ours. Our house is 3-4 years newer and nicer, IMO. They have a pool. Their house is listed at $1.55M.

That’s why a pool is a no brainer in my neck of the woods. You arguably get back more value than you spent via “curb appeal” and all that. I drop $150K on a pool and could probably list at $200K more. Makes no sense to me but that’s the market in my ‘hood. Homes with pools sell faster.

Of course, this is all on paper and future value mumbo jumbo until I sell.

The price of our house has tripled in the nearly 8 years I’ve owned it. At current rates with a 10% down payment, I would be looking at monthly payments of $8500-9000.

So, no, I would not be paying that for my 75 year old house.

If I were shopping today with our original purchase price as a budget, we would be able to afford a 500 sq ft 1 bed condo with no parking space.

https://www.crews.bank/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/CotD%20-%20Real%20Estate%20vs%20Income-3.jpg
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No clue. But we bought our house for $265k 15 years ago. Now I could probably sell it for $900k. I’d be very uncomfortable taking on that kind of mortgage.

I could afford my house now. In the 17 years we have been here it has gone up around 60% while our incomes have done the same. But I would have a hard time deciding to pay that much for a house and considering we can now work from anywhere I would probably do something smaller in an area further from Columbus.