I’m just curious why so many top players with a year of eligibility left are transferring to other teams. I assume that it is for NIL money, which I guess I understand.
We’re going to see it more and more at both ends of the distribution.
Not getting playing time? Transfer.
You’re a star? Use the portal to test the NIL market and transfer if you get a better offer than the one that is keeping you where you are.
A few years from now we are going to see that **graduation rates are going to measurably dip in football **and men’s basketball.
I wonder about that. There is now a lot of incentive for players to stay in school for their full 5 years if they can make NIL money and will not be a high draft choice. There is also the graduate transfer rule that allows players to transfer a 2nd time if they have graduated. We also tend to focus a lot on the big name transfers but most players that enter the portal don’t end up going anywhere.
The only thing certain in College Football is chaos. Lots of chaos.
So, you make good points and only time will tell.
I base my projection on:
As a professor, I see how hard it is to finish in a timely fashion after transferring, particularly after transferring late in a college career. Students who complete two years at one college often need three more at the next, due to scheduling challenges, prerequisites and so on. And that is for non-athletes. Athletes have it even harder because they have to schedule around practice times.
I think a lot of guys who enter the portal do not get picked up (the half of the distribution that is trying to move down a competitive level) and many of them will probably leave college, counting as a non-graduate at the first university.
From a Sports Illustrated article in 2022 (football data):
54% reported enrolling at a new school41% have not found a new school, are still looking, transferred to a non-NCAA school, or left their sport completely59% of scholarship transfers found a scholarship at a new FBS school8% left their scholarships and became walk-ons at a new school33% of players remain without a destination18% of walk-ons that transferred found a scholarship at a new schoolAbout one-third of FCS transfers land a scholarship at a new school36% of FCS transfers find a new school to sign with at all