I’m fascinated that with all the physics we know, we can’t make a prediction more accurate to a couple of hours, or where it’s going to land. I’ve been following this story with great interest. It sounds right now like there are going to be some surprised fish.
I have read little but got the impression that as this thing tumble falls, it presents an unpredictable drag hence the time and place unknowns.
The tumbling plus there is a lot of uncertainty about the density of the atmosphere 100-200 kms up. And a small amount of difference in density can lead to uncertainty of when the atmosphere will really start to bite and pull it in. Add to that the body is traveling at 17,000 mph so a difference of 10 minutes means it coming down on the west or east coast of US.
Can’t we just get Israel to shoot it down with one of their space lasers?
I’m fascinated that with all the physics we know, we can’t make a prediction more accurate to a couple of hours, or where it’s going to land. I’ve been following this story with great interest. It sounds right now like there are going to be some surprised fish.
Basically this:
The fact is that the small uncertainties, like altitude, velocity, density of the atmosphere at different locations, drag, lift, etc, result in vastly different outcomes. The fact is there are so many unknowns in this situation, from uncertainty in the things like orbital parameters (all measurements have uncertainties) to the aerodynamics of the body in the thin atmosphere, just result in vastly different outcomes. Everyone knows they don’t have the right measurements, so they know they models have large variances in the outcomes.
And there is the whole layer of only small group is really qualified to do the forecasting here. And not all of them have the best data available to them.
I am not sure that the system is truly chaotic, like the three body problem as an example, but it clearly does not converge very neatly.
I’m fascinated that with all the physics we know, we can’t make a prediction more accurate to a couple of hours, or where it’s going to land. I’ve been following this story with great interest. It sounds right now like there are going to be some surprised fish.
Also, if you want to get regular updates, you can check for them here
Right now predicted to come in around 11:30 PM East Coast time, probably in the south Pacific.
I doubt the Chinese are being forthcoming with information about their booster as well. If you don’t know the mass of the object or the physical makeup such as precise shape or composition, then it will make modeling that much more difficult.
I doubt the Chinese are being forthcoming with information about their booster as well. If you don’t know the mass of the object or the physical makeup such as precise shape or composition, then it will make modeling that much more difficult.
And the answer is “probably the ocean”, even with the incomplete data.
Ya’ll have nothing to worry about. With my luck, it’ll land on my truck.