And while we’re at it, where does the Felt AR series figure in…?
And Trek has been ominously silent on the aero road category…
I think the slugfest now is what is better: Specialized Venge or Cervelo S5?
How will consumers know? How will they decide what they come to know?
Tom why don’t I just say what you are about to say, which is that consumers can’t possibly know.
Of course I disagree with you =)
At this point I suspect the S5 is a little better, based on a few eyeball wind tunnel clues.
the eyeball wind tunnel can be wrong though
and looks count for something, but that is in the eyeball of the beholder.
I did.
Customers will justify buying one bike over the other based primarily on one of the following factors:
Data: Obviously the toughest one to nail down given all the conflicting tests and marketing. But I think the bottom line is that these bikes are both pretty damn fast relative to the rest of the market.
Aesthetics/Lust: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but one of these bikes is much pretty than the other to my eye
Value: Obviously dependent on the data, but I think this judgment is pretty much a slam dunk
Tom doesn’t want to know the answer, he wants someone to post an answer so he can reply back, “How do we know that?” or “There’s no way to know without some third party testing, who will step up and do that?”, etc.
Anyway, at this early stage, like you, I would lean towards the S5. Mostly because Cervelo published data. Specialized didn’t publish aero data with the Venge, if they had it, and it was good, I am sure they would have. The didn’t hesitate to publish data for the Shiv, because it was good. Their lack of aero data on the Venge says almost as much as actually publishing data would.
Give it some time for people to do field tests and get to the tunnel and we’ll see if people can duplicate the data Cervelo put out today.
I did.
…and you’re still wrong.
define better
.
Tom doesn’t want to know the answer, he wants someone to post an answer so he can reply back, “How do we know that?” or “There’s no way to know without some third party testing, who will step up and do that?”, etc.
You’re right…as a retailer he really doesn’t want to “know”…that makes it easier for him to “give the customer what they want” 
And don’t forget the Scott Foil
.
And don’t forget the Scott Foil
Actually, I think that question might have been answered…if you watch the S5 video, there’s a shot of Damon at a whiteboard listing out some of the runs they were doing. Near the bottom is an entry for “S. Foil”. So, I’ll assume that means the Foil ended up in the group above the S1/S2/S3 group on the drag chart
"Customers will justify buying one bike over the other based primarily on one of the following factors:
Data: Obviously the toughest one to nail down given all the conflicting tests and marketing. But I think the bottom line is that these bikes are both pretty damn fast relative to the rest of the market.
Aesthetics/Lust: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but one of these bikes is much pretty than the other to my eye
Value: Obviously dependent on the data, but I think this judgment is pretty much a slam dunk."
I agree.
To me there are two seperate questions worth shaking out, and the answers to these may be different:
Which bike is empiracally "better"? This seems like a relatively straightforward question in this relatively narrow category: Aero road bikes. The guys at Velo-News did a very good job of conducting some independent testing for their survey that had a very “German” feel to it- like the German publications that tend to test rather than review. While this metric may seem debatable in this category it seems pretty finite: Stiffest bike with lowest drag wins. Now, I know wind tunnel and stiffness test protocols can be manipulated within the small range of difference between these products- but I wonder if a pub like *Velo-News *might be able to shake this out in a test.
**Which bike will be more popular? **As in, sell better. That is an easy to measure metric of dollars and cents. It will be influenced by an amalgam of factors: Dealer network, pricing, distribution, supply, aesthetic appeal, brand “feel” (like perfume), marketing, aesthetics, etc.
12-20 months from now the sales figures will reflect a winner in the aerobike category on sales. The engineering data produces a set of metrics that validates the “best”. I’m sure we’ll know the former, I wonder how we determine the latter and I’m intersted in the interplay between them.
See, this is a trap question because you’re asking for opinions at this point. That said, I’ll play along and use, I don’t know, common sense in my answers…
Which will be more popular? The Cervelo, no doubt. They’ll be available from Day 1 (Something Specialized needs to learn) and Cervelo can pop those out like Tribbles can reproduce. If people can see, touch, and ride the bike, they’ll buy it.
Which will we see more of underneth the well heeled, Assos wearing, venture capitalist plodding along at 14mph in Central Park? The Cervelo because no matter what, there are still fan boys out there.
Which bike is better? The depends on which bike fits you the best.
Personally I like the Venge in the Projet Black paint scheme…Oh and it fits me better. Fit is king in my book.
Bob
You’re right…as a retailer he really doesn’t want to “know”…that makes it easier for him to “give the customer what they want”
Tom,
It’s a cliche, but it is true, that, “the customer is always right” . . even when they are wrong. Good sales and business-people know this.
Furthermore if you are going to compare, we have to get the price range right:
Cervelo S5 Team vs S-Works Venge (both $3800)
Cervelo S5 VWD vs Mclaren Venge (VWD Edition is ???, while Mclaren is rumored to be $8000)
.
Furthermore if you are going to compare, we have to get the price range right:
Cervelo S5 Team vs S-Works Venge (both $3800)
Are you comparing framesets? If so, it’s not clear to me yet if the S5 frameset is $3000 or $3800.
On American site, it’s 3800USD for frame.
http://s5.cervelo.com/en_us/bikes/2011/s5/#KF
Can I still vote for the S3? More traditional road bike looks, still pretty aero, and plenty stiff.
Exactly.
From a retail standpoint the different companies are always nipping at the heels of the bigger retailers to floor the product. We need to know where people’s heads are before we floor piece 1.
Also, the smart business person lets the bike company do the marketing for them. By the time the bike hits the floor- regardless of brand- it’s already sold. The brand has already established the case for their design and closed the consumer. It’s just a matter of ringing it up.
Of the players in the aero road bike category a few of them- but not all- do a compelling job of markting their brand for their retailers. Whether they do that through super refined aerodynamic and stiffness design and engineering, compelling white papers, glitzy ads, sponsorships or a combination of those things only matters if customers are compelled by it. And then, the product has to deliver. Deliver on the technical performance, the ownership experience, the cache’ that a customer buys into when they join the brand as a customer.
On American site, it’s 3800USD for frame.
http://s5.cervelo.com/en_us/bikes/2011/s5/#KF
And it’s also listed at $3000 on the main bike page
http://www.cervelo.com/en_us/bikes/2011/
…with a complete bike listed starting at $3800, which matches the price listing at the end of this:
http://www.bikeradar.com/news/article/cervelo-unveil-new-s5-aero-road-bike-30780
So…do you see why I say it’s not clear yet? 
I want to know what you’re getting for $3700 extra going from SRAM Rival to Red?!?!
S5 with Shimano Dura-Ace Di2: US$9,000 S5 with SRAM Red: $7,500 S5 with Shimano Ultegra Di2: $6,000 S5 with Shimano Ultegra 6700: $4,800 S5 with SRAM Rival: $3,800