Buriden's Ass and the Internet Forum: A Quandary

Triathlon Forum
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I heard a fascinating documentary on the BBC World Service radio channel last night:

Paralysis of analysis; Buriden’s Ass http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buridan’s_ass the propencity to continue to gather information in the pursuit of making “The One Best Possible Choice” of any set of alternatives.

  • What is the best bike?
  • I can’t decide between these three bikes?
  • I’m injured- what should I do?
  • My coach told me one thing, five threads on three forums and two friends tell me seven other things. What is right?
  • What is the best race to do?
  • What ten things can we all decide are “right” or “given” or “consensus” so those topics can be off the forum and decided once and for all?

So “Buridan’s Ass” is effectively (paraphrased for our context) an inability to chose or make choices because the number of choices is too large and the **factors that differentiate them are too small. **Additionally, there is an expectation of “best” or the “want of absolute best” from a seemingly infinite set of options seperated by too little differentiation, rendering tangible evaluation impossible: What 's best- A Cervelo P4, A Felt DA, A Scott Plasma 3, A Quintana Roo Cd 0.1? A Trek? A Specialized, A Giant?

Buriden’s Ass died because it couldn’t decide between water or hay. It never made a decision and died of dehydration and starvation.

The program I listened to was moderated by professors from Swarthmore University. They proposed that more choices are sometimes bad. They result in a more complex decision making process and debate ad nauseum (internal and external).

Perhaps most interestingly even when a decision was reached between numerous, frequent alternatives, the measured level of satisfaction was lower than a choice made for a “serviceable” or “good” option from fewer alternatives. People were less satisfied with their choice when the choice became more complex.

Exhibit “A”: The Cervelo P2.

There are probably more Cervelo P2’s at triathlons than any other single bike- a total guess, an unscientific remark, but a reasonable wild-assed guess based on the Kona bike count and my anecdotal insight (sic). Is the Cervelo P2 the “absolute lightest, best, most advanced, lowest drag coefficient, best equipped, best color scheme, most admired, most unique and novel” triathlon bike? No. It is not. It may not be any one of those things. But it is serviceable and trouble free and offers good fit characteristics, reasonable appearance, decent availability. In short, it is good enough- even for a person of reasonably high standards. It is a satisfying buying and ownership experience. Is that part of the reason the bike has sold so well?

That brings me back to the forum: We often notice belligerent behavior, seemingly conflicting agendas, etc. I wonder if they are caused by, or contribute to- this paralysis of analysis. Does a significant segment of the forum population not want new or challenging ideas? Do we just seek to be agreed with?

Most importantly- I wonder if these are the seeds of our own undoing? Our own demise?

There is one nice fellow on this forum who is a regular and constructive contributor and commentator (and sometimes moderator…) who has the username “ToKnowMore”. I like the lad (or lass as it may be…). That contributor’s username got me thinking: Does “ToKnowMore” really actually know anything more through their participation in the forum, or have they simply become paralyzed in an infinite swirl of conflicting dogma and rendered incapable of making a decision? do any of us “Know More”? If we are here “To Know More”, do we? Or, are we just angry and confuesed, trying to argue our own doctrine or agenda?

Does a forum help as a source of decison making, or- as one poster suggested in a seperate thread today- is there too much conflicting information and agendas to be of any tangible assistance?

So, anyway… I was wondering those things…

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Nice interesting read. Thanks.

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I’ve always referred to this type of situation as ‘paralysis by analysis’.
Sometimes it is better to act and then adjust if the action wasn’t perfect, rather than continue with inaction.

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At first I thought that this thread was about this:

http://i52.tinypic.com/2powlxs.jpg.

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-----> Lavender Room. :slight_smile:

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U.S. Navy ships use a missile defense system called Phalynx. It is incredibley accurate, fast and effective.

However.

When the Phalynx central fire control system was orginally developed, if its software was presented with two targets inbound at the same speed, altitude and heading it tallied a target lock back and forth between the two targets. And never fired.

It literally had paralysis of analysis until a software upgrade was made.

You’re right- sometimes we are like that. We can’t decide which target to engage first so we never engage.

The U.S. Marines in their excellent officer training teach a decision making protocol that involves (Marines, chime in here, I’m paraphrasing from memory) evaluating three options for three minutes and making a decision. The decision may not be “perfect” or even “best”, but it does ascribe to Patton’s famous axiom:

“A good decision executed with speed and violence is often better than a perfect decision executed latter.”

And then there is Steven Covey’s famous decision making matrix with the four quadrants from “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People”

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Oh, I absolutely don’t think this belongs in the Lavender room, as it is directly about the processes and behaviors here on the main forum.

It does challenge our thinking, our “process” (if any), and that is scary… isn’t it?

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U.S. Navy ships use a missile defense system called Phalynx. It is incredibley accurate, fast and effective.

However.

When the Phalynx central fire control system was orginally developed, if its software was presented with two targets inbound at the same speed, altitude and heading it tallied a target lock back and forth between the two targets. And never fired.

It literally had paralysis of analysis until a software upgrade was made.

You’re right- sometimes we are like that. We can’t decide which target to engage first so we never engage.

The U.S. Marines in their excellent officer training teach a decision making protocol that involves (Marines, chime in here, I’m paraphrasing from memory) evaluating three options for three minutes and making a decision. The decision may not be “perfect” or even “best”, but it does ascribe to Patton’s famous axiom:

“A good decision executed with speed and violence is often better than a perfect decision executed latter.”

And then there is Steven Covey’s famous decision making matrix with the four quadrants from “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People”

Good articles. I work at a large company who beats any decision to death. I’ve always believed in what we called the 80% rule (I believe that it is from the Marines, but as I am from the Army, I’m not certain).

Roughly:Once you know 80% of the data, make a decision and move on. The time you spend getting the last 20% of the data isn’t worth it.

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This problem is what prompted me to start the forum suggestion of users voting posts up or down as a way to clean up the messiness inherent in the presence of so many viable alternatives. Of course, my suggestion has been firmly smacked down, and, having read the reasons why, it seems that it is for the best. And I have to admit that though the clarity of an authoritative voice is comforting, I have found that the messiness is enjoyable in many ways. The several piles of hay and water compete for my attention, but I have found that I munch on each pile and either stick with it or not. That is, I have arbitrarily chosen which advice to follow based on factors not immediately relevant to the question (e.g. do people that I personally know use this method of training or product?). This has made for a very unstable first season of training, but it sure keeps me from getting bored!

Yes, I think dogma enters in any time that somebody has a stake in the question - whether because of financial attachment of intellectual commitment to an underlying principle. To answer your final question (“whether there is too much conflicting information to be of tangible assistance”), I don’t think so. I’ve found this forum immensely helpful, and in some ways wading through the murky waters of dispute is helpful. Knowing (some of) the possible arguments against a position helps to give a richer sense of what is at stake with a given problem, and hopefully, a richer sense of what works and what doesn’t. It just takes more time and effort than following a univocal dictatorial voice.

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“users voting posts up or down as a way to clean up the messiness”

Noble intent,** **intelligent even as it ascribes to the ideas I outlined from much wiser sources than I. The problem is, this often rubs people the wrong way. It smacks of being (God forbid) unDemocratic…

I acknowledge its noble intent however.

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Another example. Studies have shown that when employers offer too many choices within a 401k (example 20 different potential investment funds) that the breadth of choices may deter employees from selecting any of the choices. Whereas if the breadth of selection is smaller, the employee will be more likely to select an option.

I have seen this phenomenon many times in my professional career, never knew it had an official name (and a cool one at that), so thanks for bringing that to my attention. Reminds me of my grandmother’s oft-used phrase: “perfection is the enemy of the good.”

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I work in the procurement world, and this can often happen when the focus is on the various solutions at hand.

However, when the focus is on the requirements, then it becomes an easier to identify the best value and make a decision.

Often, unhappiness or buyers remorse is linked to poor requirements determination or not buying based off of the requirements

That said, I believe that the forums help individuals educate others about possibility of other requirements and other options being available, such that information gathering can then be done in a more targeted manner. Ultimately, more options compared to more focused requirements, leads to a final selection that best fits the end need.

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Tom it is this: MK 15 Phalanx Close-In Weapons System (CIWS)

Not Phalynx.

The best upgrade to the CIWS is when they converted it to manual control. It can be used as a point defense for surface targets guided by a sailor on board with a joystick. How cool is that. Just barely press the trigger ZZRRRPPPP… “and the quarterback is toast”

They test them in Tucson by shooting down artillery shells.

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…
What 's best- A Cervelo P4, A Felt DA, A Scott Plasma 3, A Quintana Roo Cd 0.1? A Trek? A Specialized, A Giant?
…

That’s easy! A Cannondale!

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I’ve heard it concisely stated as: “Great is the enemy of Good”.

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Whoa. That’s truly awesome. I’d like to adopt that if I may…

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Whoa. That’s truly awesome. I’d like to adopt that if I may…

Yes you should!

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Rush: If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice
.

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So I’m reading this and I’m thinking, “Wow, this REALLY applies to me!” Then I see I am referred to directly :).

I think a lot of it ends up subconsciously being, “It’s not the kill, it’s the thrill of the chase.”

I know that when I have analyzed (or shall I say, over-analyzed) a potential purchase and I am down to two choices, it really won’t make too much of a difference which I choose. There is so much competition out there (thankfully) that manufacturer’s are taking care of that. When you are considering two high-end, similarly priced products, you usually can’t go too wrong with either. Can you really go wrong by buying a $70,000 Mercedes vs. buying a $70,000 BMW (assuming you can afford it)? I don’t think so. But I still agonize. That’s just me. I enjoy analyzing before I decide to buy. I find it interesting. Is it the best use of my time, given how much time I spend doing it? Probably not.

I hope I don’t sound like I am critizing this forum or anyone in particular on it but there does seem to be a bias towards high-end equipment and making a really perfect decision. Maybe I’m wrong about this. Maybe I’m just projecting.

I’ll probably be buying a tri bike soon. I’m really agonizing about that decision (How much do I need to spend? How much should I spend? What should I get? What difference does spending more get me? Who should I go to for my fitting?).

I chose the name, “ToKnowMore” because I really would like to know more about triathlon stuff. And, thanks to this forum, I do know more.

What I constantly have to remind myself of is that consistent and intelligent training is by far the most important thing for success in triathlon. All the other things are important but nowhere near as important.

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Honestly, and I actually don’t know who you are in the real world, I think your username is apt and well chosen because your contributions and inquiries add a lot to this forum. You’re an active and valuable contributor.

I know more readers than just myself appreciate that.