Alghero start list published today (Tuesday)
But she is on the next WTS start list ie Yokohama
Which also sees the return of Yee, Hauser but no Haydn Wilde
So because Yoko isn’t the start of the OQ period where in the past 3 Olympics it has, it’s being poorly attended. Which is why USAT didn’t need to sub her in, she rolled on from the wait list. Would USAT have subbed her in if it was full (during the allowed sub period), we don’t know?
If Knibb is racing t100 after Yoko, it will make very little sense to add her to Alghero to race 3rd time in 3 weeks.
It isn’t going to be Knibbs job to get that 3rd spot, and right now there seems to be a few ladies that can get that job done. And of course they will sub her in when she wants to race, otherwise what’s the point of even having her race on the team? The whole world knows what her role will be in LA, so they just have to do whatever it takes to make sure she gets in a position to perform that role. This is not a democracy, ladies will have to race hard to get top 30 and one of them are not going to get to go. Do we all forget when Spivey was ranked between 1st and 3rd and she didn’t get to go??
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If Knibb is racing T100 Spain and wants to race Alghero it will make absolute sense to sub her in. Alghero is the first race in the OQ period: USAT need to facilitate Knibb not just racing short course but getting the OQ points at least to be in the top 160 so she can be selected.
Without Knibb, USA’s chances of a medal drops to negligible.
As for “USAT rarely subs athletes in”, would you recommend they stick to this CoA?
Of course she’ll do way better than that, but will only score a few SC races as she has more important races in the next 24 months: Nice, Kona as ‘starters’ plus wherever the T100 GF ends up (my bet = Jeddah, a month after Kona.
OQ System:
https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/LA28/TRI-LA28-Qualification-System.pdf
BD: “knibb likely won’t race enough w results like that to help secure 3rd spot)”
I agree but see @monty’s refutation of relevance
lol at the idea that we have to worry about Knibb getting ranked in the T160 to be eligible. She could go do 1 WC and she will suffice that ranking, so having her race 3 times in 3 weeks likely is pretty stupid imo from an athlete experience as well as expectation of results.
It doesn’t matter what I would recommend, what Ajax the ST expert would recommend, or anything. It’s what they do. They rarely sub athletes in, doesn’t mean they can’t, doesn’t mean they won’t. But if we are going to have a discussion let’s atleast be as factual as possible. USAT has 3 days to sub her in, and so let’s check back at this time each day and see if it happens. It doesnt matter what anyone’s opinion on it is, it’s whether they do it or not.
I already noted upthread that likely Knibb and Pearson (he may race more WTCS, but he may also race less) will be 2 USA athletes who if chosen for the LA Games will “take” the spots from the points position of another athlete and can’t be relied on to gain the necessary positions. That matters because if you sub in one of those athletes out for Knibb your taking 1 less person’s chance to get a T30. Itu is nothing but chess more than anything with all the complications the rankings add to team selections. Spivey is going to easily get the ranking. GS/Orie very unlikely. That leaves 2 of the 3 athletes to get the necessary ranking out of EA, Kasper, GJ.
Pearson has to be subbed in to make Alghero WTCS.
I think you meant “earned” and not take. You earn your spot on the MTR, it’s silly to think otherwise. And as to displacing a potential top 30, it is quite obvious to most of us who the 4 contenders for those top 30 are going to be. And after a couple more races it will be obvious who those top 3 will be. So being that 5 usually get starts, just sub out for that back athlete not in the running. See how easy that is, all the goals align with proper considerations..
Monty you would argue semantics with any post I post in this site. It truly is bizarro. We all know athletes who don’t make AQ can lose their spot to other athletes. It’s always been done and will always have Feds the power to pick the best team they want. Knibb is almost assured to likely not race enough to not secure t30. That leaves others to make sure that happens. 2 of them imo have very little shot of making T30 imo- Orie and GS. That leaves a small handful of others who potentially have some issues like GJ. She could literally retire tomorrow, she’s only holding on at best these days in the sport, and holy hell she’s 40+ now, whatever she does is almost amazing at this point. That leaves Kasper and EA (along w GJ) to secure T30. To suggest this is easy is comical, no what was easy was the US women having like 5 in the T20 and being so strong you could leave top 3 ranked athlete home. This OQ cycle will be far from easy. So if you want to argue w any semantic I make on this site, do you Monty.
Knibb was on the Feisty podcast the other week and talked about her plans to race a few World Cup events to get her ranking up.
While I know the OQ period hasn’t started, currently Team USA barely has three women in the top 30 World rankings. That has to be a new phenomenon for Team USA… they’ve often had 5+ women in the top 30 in past years.
As host nation, they’re guaranteed 2/2 men/women but I think they’ll need to be focused to get 3 women in the top 30 OQ rankings… something they’ve countered on in recent Olympic cycles, is far from a guarantee this time around.
Pearson cant subed in as he is not on the waiting list.
Interesting I don’t even look at the wait list until after the sub period. Subs are only allowed from wait list? I didn’t know if that’s the case. You technically can join the wait list at any time yes? So it’s more procedural rule, right?
you cant enter an athlete from tue when the start list is produced till Monday 1 pm so if you want to substitute somebody in they have to be on the waiting list.
Either way Pearson is kinda proving my point. If athletes have other plans in the OQ they are basically going to be less relied on to then get 3 into t30 ranking.
there is no right or wrong I guess the germans go very strictly by the ranking and no top 30 you are not going to the games, and 5 highest ranked atheltes go into the race . the French rarely use their 5 entry slots for world series ( interstingly this week it must be the first time in like 20years they dont have an athelte in the top 10 in the world ranking in the males ). the brits have a very detailed outline who gets into a WTCS race and who can be substituted in. , so there is not a common rule. and the Australians argue anyways no matter what lol
and as you said it will be what usat decides.
GBR women:
Both GTB and Waugh are on the Alghero wait list (but there are 5 Brits on the start list already). Both these athletes are racing T50 Yokohama and T100 Spain on the two weekends before Alghero. Same plan as Knibb and, indeed, Spivey.
I think as long as the athlete and the federation on the same page of what the standard is going to be, everyone can kinda adjust and live with that. Which I think USAT has generally been more hands off for most of the OQ’s than playing favorites; and yes there will always be exceptions when they do in fact pull rank. But for the most part, they’ve kinda let the rankings dictate who gets in and who doesn’t, regardless of whether us ST experts think it’s the right decision or not.
It should also be noted that for the most part, USAT has never really had to pull rank, all the athletes have generally been all in on the itu pathway so everyone of the favorites has usually gotten in on their own merits since basically London except for the GJ v KZ Paris build up. The US women now for the 1st time, actually have to experience what the US men have experienced; not having automatic tons of T20 talent (and for a decade plus, the US women had multiple T10 type of talent) in the world and so it’s going to be a real fight to secure the 3rd spot.
And the level on that GB team is waaaaaaay higher than the US. We’re talking about 3-4 most likely in the top 10 vs 1 top 10 and maybe another couple scraping the top 20…
Invitation requests have to be submitted at the same time as substitutions – i.e. by the end of the week in which the relevant start-list is produced.
just to correct the above ie you can request a substitution till Friday and the athlete does not have to be on the waiting list
Good info
Do you know what the detailed outline of the Brits is then? Would like to know.