Is anyone aware of a calculator/guestimator/multiplier that I could use to approximate a 20k bike leg from a 5k time trial?
I used to do 3-5 triathlons a year and 5ish run races. 2 years ago I got an internal infection that made its way through my body. I started my come back when I was in an accident and ruptured a few discs. I am finally healthy although up 25 pounds. I’m doing my first tri back in September. Its just a little sprint. I would like to guess my mph I should realistically shoot for so I don’t blow up or hold back too much.
I don’t know if it matters, but here is some other info:
(1) Riding my 5k with the slight downhill I averaged 23 MPH this morning. (Don’t laugh, three months ago I could barely average 20 MPH)
(2) I do a 10-15 minute ride up and down some hills and then come back. Riding back up I average 20.5 MPH (Again, don’t laugh at my snailish pace)
There is usually little to no wind on this ride, and the triathlon also has little to no wind. I do not have a power meter to use because my wife disagrees with me about their importance. I understand that other factors including but not limited to wind, temperature, humidity, clothing, general fitness, and my willingness to draft, will effect the number. I’m looking for a rough estimate to work with. There are lots of these calculators for running, just looking for a cycling version.
I was in the same boat as you and I just decided to go do the course and get an actual 20km time. I have now done the 20km course 3 times and my average time has been 35:30 so I am hoping for just under 35 on race day since I will not have to stop at intersections and stop signs and intersections. I should be able to drop that 30 seconds.
I would like to guess my mph I should realistically shoot for
Congrats on getting healthy. This is huge!
The go-a-certain-speed approach to racing is doomed for failure. What if it’s windy? Will you just go harder? What about effort on hills/flat/downhills? Do you attempt to go the same speed no matter what the terrain or conditions? Speed is an output variable. The effort it takes to produce a certain speed is really variable, and changes constantly. Power/effort is an input variable. A better metric would be RPE. How hard does it feel? Some people use heart rate, although it can be sketchy. This is what a power meter is good for. But without one, I would just use effort. I would ride right under the “red line feeling” knowing that I still have to run 3.1 miles after it. Then after the race, you can know that you went as hard as you planned to, and executed your race plan to the best of your ability. Good luck!