Do you have any go-to predictor/simulation workouts that have indicated/resulted in a 4:30 - 4:40 HIM time? Swim/bike/run?
Maybe with a race breakdown similar to a 35 min swim/2:20 ride/1:35 run - ish times?
The sim I used to do was:
Run 45 min at easy pace
Bike 2:30 at (30 min HIM pace, 20 min IM pace) X 3
Run 45 min at goal HIM pace
With transitions this will take just over 4 hours.
If you felt strong on the second run with energy left, your bike and run pacing are pretty close to what you’d do in a HIM.
Do that in place of your long weekend workout, you don’t have to be tapered but don’t do a quality effort the day before.
Swim is what it is, you know what you can do.
I like doing the race distance in kilometers anywhere from 2.5-5 weeks out. Big confidence booster but you’re stopping at 60-65% of the distance so you’re not going to overdo things if you stick to goal paces.
1200m swim @ 70.3, 56km bike @ 70.3, 13km run @ 70.3
I think the run doesn’t have to be straight 70.3 pace. It can be a progression starting at 140.6 & finishing at 70.3. Or 2 x 3-4 miles @ 70.3 w./ 1 mile jog.
I think it’s harder to do prediction workouts in triathlon the way you can in, say, running because you need to be firing on all three disciplines. I think it’s more about looking at your last 4-8 weeks of training & knowing you hit the volume in workouts/training that you needed to hit. Two people can get to 4:30-4:40 in completely different ways. I went 4:25 in my 1st 70.3 with a sub-80 run but had only had a year of both swimming & biking. Some people bike 20 minutes faster than I went in that race but run 20 minutes slower. I guess there’s something to be said for working on your weaknesses too.
When I was racing in 2019 I went 4:38 and then 4:23 on a faster course. I was in good shape for the run but never ran that fast in the races.
My splits were 26 swim, 2:26, 1:41 run on my slower half and then 26 (2k swim), 2:11, 1:42 on the second race.
I guess it is not comparable for the swim, but when I biked @ 70kg a big workout was a 4 hour ride with 3x 40 minutes as 20 minutes @ 215w, 15’ @ 250w, 5’ @ 280w. I averaged around 240ish on the bike for both splits.
I figured I could run 1:30-1:35 on a good day. Just didn’t quite have it. Bigger workouts were:
20km long run with 2x5k tempoish around 4:05 per kilometre.
For the swim I was able to do short workouts of 8-10x100 on 1:15 second off time in scm. I was around a 4:30 400m freestyle, 18:11 1500m. I cruised the swims pretty easily.
Thanks, all. Good ideas in all posts.
I’ve been in this ballpark when my 25 mile bike TT is <1hr and my 5k run is around 18 minutes. And hoping my swim isn’t too shit, maybe 6:45/400m for me.
Got me a 4.40 ish off this kind of pace.