Baseball player comparison

The Coffee Shop
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Player A

**G** **AB** **R** **H** **2B** **3B** **HR** **RBI** **TB** **BB** **SO** **SB** **CS** **OBP** **SLG** **AVG**  2007 162 628 118 174 34 5 24 78 290 101 155 33 10 .390 .462 .277

Player B

**G** **AB** **R** **H** **2B** **3B** **HR** **RBI** **TB** **BB** **SO** **SB** **CS** **OBP** **SLG** **AVG**  2007 158 612 122 185 38 23 23 74 338 52 141 26 1 .361 .552 .302

Above are the stats from 2007 for two players. Player B is Curtis Granderson from Detroit. Second player ever to have 20 doubles, triples home runs and stolen bases in a season(he got there before Rollins did last season). So hardcore baseball fans know him, and fantasy players see him rated somewhat highly. But he’s not the top rated fantasy outfielder, player A is. Granderson hasn’t had a cover story in SI, player A has. Granderson has played in world series, player A hasn’t.

Player A is Grady Sizemore, who don’t get me wrong, if the Tigers didn’t have Granderson, I certainly would not oppose having Sizemore. But everything from fantasy to “good guy” articles rates Sizemore ahead of Granderson. The baseball numbers don’t need analysis, but everying I’ve read about Sizemore that isn’t about on-field play can be said about Granderson. So why are we dealing with a nice little centerfielder in Detroit, and Saint Grady Sizemore in Cleveland? I’m at a loss for why that is.

Just thought I’d try to whet the baseball appetite.

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Those stats are so last year.

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Player A

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 2007 162 628 118 174 34 5 24 78 290 101 155 33 10 .390 .462 .277

Player B

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 2007 158 612 122 185 38 23 23 74 338 52 141 26 1 .361 .552 .302

162 **628 **118 174 34 5 24 78 290 **101 **155 33 10 .390 .462 .277
158 612 **122 **185 38 **23 **23 74 **338 **52 141 26 1 .361 .552 .302
160 604 113 **196 42 **1 **30 107 **330 94 **115 34 **5 .416 .546 **.325 **

How about those numbers? More hits, more doubles, more home runs, more RBIs, fewer strikeouts, more stolen bases, higher OBP, higher average. Guess who?

4

First of all, I’m not sure what David Wright has to do with this discussion, other than a shameless attempt to insert the Mets into this thread. Plus Wright does not lack for media attention, nor does he approach Rodriguez among third basemen. I’m not saying Granderson is the best CF, but many people will lead you to believe that Sizemore is, and, well…

I should have posted earlier about what happened in a mall this winter btw. There was a display, some local built house out of popsickle sticks or something. As he was taking congratulations for his work, the house collapsed. Within seconds someone stuck a Mets sticker on there. It was priceless.

:slight_smile:

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Hey, you whetted my appetite for baseball. Sorry to hijack your thread. I can see the huge interest in a discussion about AL Central outfielders :slight_smile:

Funny about the Mets sticker.

Here’s a job for you. Go to stubhub.com, and tell me what tickets I should get for the Mets game on May 10, in terms of good seats (I really don’t know where to sit). Advice appreciated (loge, mezzanine, etc.) if you don’t feel like wading through tickets for sale.

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Compare the previous years to figure out why most folks think Sizemore is the best. They’ve been in the league for the same time span (2004-2007).

Last year, Granderson had a career year. Sizemore, a pre-season MVP candidate, did not have the year many thought he would. Granderson did improve on his 2006 numbers, but I think many are skeptical if he can repeat his performance from last year, let allone improve on it.

What’s more amazing about Granderson is, that as a lead off guy, he struck out 174 times in '06 and 141 times in '07. We get too caught up on stats and don’t really look at the most important ones for his slot in the lineup. His OBP stinks. He scored 122 runs, in part, because his team was loaded on offense. If Baseball Prospectus has shown us anything it’s that speed is over-rated (which is something us Rickey Henderson and smallball fans found tought to swallow). The key is to get on base and to not have at bats (strikeouts) that produce nothing.

Personally, I think Sizemore is over-rated. He’s good, but they talk of him as if he was Mickey mantle. He’s consistently a 20-20 guy, with 75-80 RBIs. In today’s game that’s not blistering. IMO, people look at Sizemore and see how good he looks in the uniform and point out that he’s a “5-tool player” and how great that is and everything. The problem is that the “5 tools” need to translate into functional baseball numbers. Baseball is, still, primarily a skill sport that requires athletic ability. Sizemore needs to have that BREAKOUT/MVP year that everyone keeps predicting he’ll have.

In short, DON’T read too much into one year … especially when it involves someone from your favorite team.

7

Bill James was just on 60 minutes.

His “best” player in baseball … Albert Pujols. Like duh, the guy hits as many home runs as times he strikes out.

The player James would most like to have on his team … David Wright. Stats plus his age of 23. Players still (on average) have their best year between the ages of 25-29. If Wright gets even better, the comparison to Schmidt is going to be inevitable.

8

You know, this was just more a curiosity, but we can throw down if you’re going to want to throw down. :slight_smile: First of all, while baseball prospectus does discount the value of speed, they also indicate that strikeoutsare not as bad as people make them out to be. Yes a base hit is better, but part of your “nothing happens” is that the hitter doesn’t ground into a double play. Remember the value of giving up outs.

Now on to your other points. First of all, granderson played 6 games in 04, and 45 or so in 05. Sizemore played 47 in 04, and went full time in 05. You knock Granderson’s OBP, ok fine, and then say that scoring 122 runs is due to the lineup. So they managed to drive him in from the dugout? I thought he never got on base? Granderson’s strikeout totals are bad(presumably because he hits leadoff), but Sizemore’s 155 strikeout average the last two years is ok, because in the cleanup spot(or wherever it is he bats), even though his total bases and slugging percentage were significantly lower than Granderson’s last year, and not terribly higher the season before, Granderson’s first full time season. You want to talk about what guys should be doing in their position in the lineup, I would say Granderson makes up for striking out in the leaoff spot far better than Sizemore makes up for hitting in the heart of the lineup and only driving in 75 runs. The only impressive stat I see for Sizemore is 53 doubles in 06, which is nice, but Granderson put together a stat sheet that won an MVP award for Jimmy Rollins. Granderson sucked so bad at getting on base he was only 4th in total bases last season in the AL. He was 34th in his first full season. You want to talk about stats that matter, tell me how that doesn’t matter. When the first full season has some good numbers, and the next season shows some great improvement, it’s not longer reading too much into one season for a player from the favorite team.

Sizemore is overrated. Other than having 53 doubles one season, he’s not shown himself to be overly special, at least not to the degree the hype follows him.

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Hey, you whetted my appetite for baseball. Sorry to hijack your thread. I can see the huge interest in a discussion about AL Central outfielders :slight_smile:

Funny about the Mets sticker.

Here’s a job for you. Go to stubhub.com, and tell me what tickets I should get for the Mets game on May 10, in terms of good seats (I really don’t know where to sit). Advice appreciated (loge, mezzanine, etc.) if you don’t feel like wading through tickets for sale.
I’ve never been to Shea. I would say sit out by apple?

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but we can throw down if you’re going to want to throw down.

My gloves are on the ice. =)

First of all, granderson played 6 games in 04, and 45 or so in 05. Sizemore played 47 in 04, and went full time in 05.

Well, yeah, that was MY point. Up to this point Sizemore has had the better career (if for no other reason than he’s played more games). Granderson just started getting attention last year due to his breakout (possibly “career” season). Hence Sizemore gets more attention/praise.

Yes a base hit is better, but part of your “nothing happens” is that the hitter doesn’t ground into a double play.

Is hitting into a double play REALLY a concern for Granderson? My guess is that with a guy on, he’s “going for the downs” too often. Granderson has a BIG swing. With a guy on base, there’s MORE gaps in the infield to hit ground balls through.

You knock Granderson’s OBP, ok fine, and then say that scoring 122 runs is due to the lineup.

How many runs would a slower guy with an OBP of .420 score on that team? Note: The Tigers lineup is VERY impressive … only 2 guys struck out more than 100 times … Inge and Granderson … and outside of Magglio they don’t hit in many double plays.

In many situations, triples are like “homers” in that they are essentially “automatic runs” (a plus for Granderson). But, look at all the doubles the Tigers’ hitters hit. As I said, Granderson could be on first base, and STILL score. I just want to see him on base MORE, even at the expense of some extra base hits. Granted it will get less attention and MVP votes from the media, but could make the Tigers even better.

Granderson sucked so bad at getting on base he was only 4th in total bases last season in the AL.

The total bases stat really comes into play when the batter is up with 2 outs (or with runners on). If he gets a lot of extra base hits with 2 outs, THAT’s important. But, when you look up the stats/averages for runs scored by base position and outs, a lead-off single/walk is often as good as a lead-off double, and a lead-off double is often as good as a leadoff triple, etc. It would be very interesting to see Granderson’s stats for the different situation (i.e., # of outs) hitting. It might make his season even MORE impressive (if possible). Granderson’s WARP is 10, that’s pretty darn good.

I’m not addressing anything about Sizemore, because I too feel he is over-rated. I think he gets a lot of attention because he looks good in the uniform.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a speed freak, I’ll take the guy that can stretch the defense every time (unless he’s just dumb on the bases). Granderson sorta reminds me of Willie McGee, which won the 85 MVP with a similar style. Rickey Henderson was the greatest run scorer in history. He was fast. But, the stats geeks have done a decent job at showing how even the fastest guy might just get you all that many more runs than an average speed, quality base runner. Henderson scored A LOT of runs because he walked A LOT and played on teams with serious RBI guys (and vice versa). What that means is that Granderson will likely score A LOT of runs with the Tigers lineup provided he gets on base (any base) … which is why I am making the points I am making. OBP at the top of the lineup (i.e., in front of the best hitters) is paramount.

But, hearing Granderson talk (when he does, he seems like a quiet guy), and seeing his work ethic, I would anticipate that cutting down on strikeouts is a priority for him, and given his age and the team he plays for, he better get used to the attention and the All-Star game.

I’m not gonna get all tingly about Sizemore until he (at least) goes 30-100 for a meat of the order guy.

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First of all, the Tigers would have loved to see your automatic runs in the 11th today. I won’t have time until this weekend after an exam, but I will try to find the chart that shows the expected runs from each situation. Granderson’s total bases have huge value even with less than two outs. I’m surprised you would cite BP in one hand, and then dismiss the value of total bases as “important only with 2 outs.”

I would buy the argument about OBP at the top of the lineup if the leadoff hitter was actually guaranteed to lead off. I’ll whip out the book next week and refresh my memory. Too much other stuff in there right now.

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I’m surprised you would cite BP in one hand, and then dismiss the value of total bases as “important only with 2 outs.”

Not dismissing his extra base hits except with two outs, but making th epoint that extra base hits take on more importance when there’s a higher number of outs.

I would buy the argument about OBP at the top of the lineup if the leadoff hitter was actually guaranteed to lead off.

That’s another point I was thinking more about. The leadoff hitter, except at the beginning of the game rarely leads of an inning, which gives more focus on his extra base hits. The 23 triples, in particular, are of extreme importance. The other thing I was thinking of is that he was 4th in the league with extra base hits but only had 74 RBI’s. I’m interested if that has more to do with the bottom of the lineup not getting on base, or if Granderson strikes out too much with guys on base.

There’s a whole lot more information (situational hitting) tha I would like to know of Granderson. Total stats rarely tell the complete story and stats cannot be viewed in isolation.

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Don’t get me wrong, I’m a speed freak, I’ll take the guy that can stretch the defense every time (unless he’s just dumb on the bases).
Keep an eye on Carlos Gomez of the Twins (he rather single-handedly won the game for the Twinks last night). I’m guessing he’s the fastest player in baseball today; he’s known to be faster than Jose Reyes. And at only 22, he could be really special as the years go on. I wish the Mets hadn’t traded him (Milledge, not so much).

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Add Jacoby Ellsbury as another speedster to watch - scored from second on a wild pitch last year and has tremendous range in the outfield.

Yesterday was a fun day - I was home and surfed back and forth between every game since the MLB Extra Innings package has a free preview this week. Nice to see box scores again in the sports section this morning.

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Right on. Ellsbury has all the tools to be ROY provided he stays healthy and that he sees enough playing time. I had the opportunity to play against him in college/summer leagues, the guy was a nightmare on the base paths and at the plate. Faster times to the plate by pitchers and the fact that catchers in the show are very good defensively may cut down his stolen bases and bunts for hits. Either way, he and the Sox are great to watch.

J.C

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# YEAR RUNNERShttp://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/up.gif EXP_R_OUTS_0 EXP_R_OUTS_1 EXP_R_OUTS_2 1. 2007 000 0.53542 0.28387 0.10899 2. 2007 003 1.41145 0.98694 0.39209 3. 2007 020 1.18953 0.72842 0.35379 4. 2007 023 2.12182 1.44328 0.63537 5. 2007 100 0.92599 0.54239 0.23531 6. 2007 103 1.79374 1.21875 0.50615 7. 2007 120 1.51044 0.91408 0.4652 8. 2007 123 2.35243 1.61143 0.78748

OK, so here are 2007’s Run Expentancy levels. Taken from Baseball Prospectus’ site, all credit to them. For those who don’t understand, the first line refers to a batter with no one on base. If there are no outs(the 3rd column overall), you can expect .53 runs(or the team to score a run half the time.) With one out, that drops to .283, and with 2 out, .10899.

Now to TT’s point about the value of the total bases. He claims that they are more valuable with 2 outs. Let’s use no one on base, and a batter singles, doubles or triples. 100 0.92599 0.54239 0.23531 020 1.18953 0.72842 0.35379 003 1.41145 0.98694 0.39209
So if a batter gets on base with no one out, he scored 92% of the time from first. If that batter doubled, he increased the run expectancy of the team by 2/10ths, and a triple by nearly half a run. With one out, the values decrease about 4/10ths. With two out, even a triple has less than a 50% chance of leading to a run. So why are extra base hits more valuable with less than 2 outs?(here goes my audition to be a BP writer?) The obvious first point is only out out is needed to end the inning, which baseball skews towards being able to record relatively easily. But a no- or one-out double forces a team to make decisions. A single still leaves the fielding team in position to turn a double play, erasing the runner. At second, and even more so at third, the fielding team has to decide whether or not to deal with the batter, or try to get the runner. With two outs, teams will focus on the batter. Not only is the fielding alignment set up to deal with the batter, the pitcher is concentrating more on the batter. With less than 2 outs, the pitcher splits his concentration ever so slightly between the batter and runner, possibly giving the bater an advantage.

So Curtis Granderson, by putting himself at second and third base so many times, has great value, more so with less than 2 outs. Granderson’s OBP is a function not of his hitting ability, but of his (relative) inability to draw walks like other leadoff hitters. Granderson’s total bases, however, make up for the lack of walks. He drew 52 walks last season. Brian Roberts was the top leadoff man for walks last season with 89 in the AL. So Granderson misses out on 37 bases. How many runs does that work out to? Tough to say due to not knowing every situation. Granderson had 13 more triples than anyone else in the AL. If, as was said, a triple is almost an automatic run, then there is no discounting that. Granderson puts himself in an automatic run position 13 times more than anyone else. He also tied for 16th in doubles, which again, puts him in good position to score.

Could he cut down the Ks? Sure. Not many players can’t improve something. But Grady Sizemore has a season of 53 doubles and a big reputation. Granderson has a much better season on the resume, and hes “that guy in detroit”. who the Tigers appear to be sorely missing at the moment.

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So Curtis Granderson, by putting himself at second and third base so many times, has great value, more so with less than 2 outs.

The night we started the discussion, I looked up the values you presented in this last post. I realized I was likely wrong, but I held my tongue to give you the chance to prove me wrong and bask in the glory.

Not only does a lead-off triple almost always score, but the average runs per inning when that occurs is 1.5. So, not only does the lead-off triple score but it often produces a “rally” resulting in a “crooked number” half the time. There is GREAT value in that. IMO, this occurs because pitchers refuse to “concede” a run and likely try to pitch in a fashion that “strands the rnner at thrd”. By placing concentration on a runner that’s likely to score no matter what, they often slip up and allow more runners on base, that leads to the 1.5 run expectancy. This is in line with what I teach young pitchers, “With a runner on third, just assume that guy is going to score, and keep everyone else off base (especially by allowing a walk due to nibbling), and limit them to just that one run.”

Furthermore, with 2 outs, anything other than a homer will not likely score a run.

I wonder what Granderson’s OBP is with no one on base and no one out … the type of situation where a walk or a hit likely leads to a run?

Situational stats are much more important than overall averages (especially ERA).

I agree with you though that the reputation factor between Granderson and Sizemore is skewed without evidence. Peter Gammons engages in Sizemore “ball washin” quite a bit, and IMO it’s based on potential (in Gammons’ mind), not so much past performance indicating superior future performance.