In a free market, individuals who put their companies at undue risk would normally be fired promptly.
The funny thing with this whole deal is that the eventual risk was obvious, but so was the short-term gain. These companies seem to plan for short term gain only… and they reward their management accordingly.
Maybe they didn’t care about the future? Make your fortune now while you can. Many MLMs prosper under this philosophy. Maybe they planned on getting bailed out all along? Maybe they knew that their political influence was enough to save them… or maybe they just figured that when the crisis hit, there’d be little or no chance that the government would allow the world financial system to collapse.
One thing for sure… if they thought they’d be able to run this scam forever, then they were truly stupid.
You have a point. In which case this is also a shareholder failure. I.e. the shareholders of, for example, AIG, did not adequately gauge the long-term risks the management was assuming and either punish AIG in the stock market or force a management turnover. This shareholder failure could have many causes -
1)The shareholders, like the management, were only interested in short-term gain.
2)The shareholders were not given sufficient information to judge the risks. (assymetrical information causing market failure, as my post above).
3)The shareholders were given fraudulent information.
4)The shareholders are collectively incompetent, and think the P-E ratio and quarterly profit are everything. This leads them into “local maxima” i.e. seeking short-term peaks while ignoring unsustainable practices.
I kind of think it’s #2. The information on these mortgage backed securities and derivatives is incredibly complex. And hotshot analysts started using correlation-based formulas to measure their risk. These formulas turned out to be* fatally flawed*. The rating’s agencies looked at the outputs of these formulas, and gave out AAA ratings. Which is what shareholders looked at and accepted as gospel.
So the shareholders were not able to serve as a the market-correction force they’re supposed to.
I think there is some truth in all four of your scenarios, but #1 is a big factor. Many shareholders these days are not interested in the long term success of the company they invest in, but only want big returns in the short term. It’s also about “Wall Street expectations”. Companies are continually expected to do better quarter after quarter, which can lead some to take more risk to increase their profits in the short term, while sacrificing long term success.