http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile
I’m sure there are a few ST peeps who are over at letsrun, my guess is similar, would peg him in the 4:45-4:50 range. Article says he has never run a mile, does that mean a race, in practice, or what? At least when I did track & field, the sprinters still ran quite a bit, seems unrealistic that he has never run a mile.
I assume we’re talking a cold turkey attempt with no training.
He’d struggle to break 5:00. World-class decathletes are around 4:30. And they train to do that.
If he trained for, say, 6 months he could be down around 4:20 pretty quick. But that would be idiotic!
Edit: I guess I should have actually read the article before posting - it brought up decathletes. Though the 4:15 is pretty optimistic. Does Eaton actually regularly run that fast? And I assume by “never ran a mile” it’s mean that he’s never gone all-in for a mile. I’m sure he’s jogged a mile, etc.
We had a guy at my HS who ran 10.1 for the 100m. He also ran the 200 and 400 at states. For the 800 he could only go 2:15 and definitely wouldn’t break 5:00 for a mile.
Bolt is in great shape, but all his genetics and training are anaerobic-focussed, and the mile relies mostly on aerobic systems (a miler looks and trains a lot more like a marathoner than he does a 400m runner).
I’m sure I’ve posted this video before, but I love it as a stark representation of training specificity:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMIwlQB-28
Admittedly there are a lot of caveats to that video, not least that it’s just for a TV show, but I find it entertaining nonetheless!
There was a thread on Usain Bolt going long(er) a while ago and the general consensus was that >800m he’d probably just fall over and collapse:
5:17
.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile
I’m sure there are a few ST peeps who are over at letsrun, my guess is similar, would peg him in the 4:45-4:50 range. Article says he has never run a mile, does that mean a race, in practice, or what? At least when I did track & field, the sprinters still ran quite a bit, seems unrealistic that he has never run a mile.
I put him at 4:30. That’s 67 second laps. Right today, he should be able to jog through a 400m in 45 second but more than likely closer to 43.5. If he goes out 20 seconds slower per lap jogging at 65 second laps, that is 4:20 pace (2:10 for the 800m). Assuming he slows to 67 seconds in lap 3 and totally blows and does a 72-75 second in lap 4, he’s going to come in around 4:30.
The going in assumption is that even as a sprinter, they do some jogging for 5-10 min for warmup and cooldown, so it’s not like his aerobic system is “nothing” (that’s my assumption, it very well may be, but keep in mind he first grew up as a 400m runner so his coaches would have had him doing some longer running than 400m).
You guys saying that he can’t beat the top decathletes are forgetting that he is way faster up to 400m than the top decathletes already and has some background in other sports requiring some endurance.
5:17
dude. I’ve done a 5:17 mile, and I am a craptastic runner.
5:17
dude. I’ve done a 5:17 mile, and I am a craptastic runner…yes, but as a swimmer, you have waaaaaay more aerobic zone training than Bolt. Infinitely more. This is why a world class 50m swimmer will scale much better to the swim mile than many world class 200m runners will scale to 5000m on the track
I did that time a few years ago. Perhaps i would scale better, but I still have a really hard time believing that Usain bolt can’t run 4 laps of a track faster than I could at 39 years old, 190# with short legs…
4:30 I can buy. a 4:00 mile would be a near impossibility for him, but 5:17 is downright pedestrian for someone of his talents. We aren’t talking about a sub-30 10K, or 2:30 marathon here. It’s one mile.
More importantly how fast could Bolt run the beer mile?
Bolt is a unique athlete. I dont think that Justin Gatlin or Asafa Powell could run much faster than (if even go under) 5:00 but I suspect Bolt could roll out of bed and run 4:30. And if trained for it I would think he would be really fast. His event was the 400 as a youth so I bet he ran the 800 a couple of times. Would be interesting to dig out what he went back then.
I did that time a few years ago. Perhaps i would scale better, but I still have a really hard time believing that Usain bolt can’t run 4 laps of a track faster than I could at 39 years old, 190# with short legs…
4:30 I can buy. a 4:00 mile would be a near impossibility for him, but 5:17 is downright pedestrian for someone of his talents. We aren’t talking about a sub-30 10K, or 2:30 marathon here. It’s one mile.
I’d agree with you except every time I’ve seen a real sprinter actually try to race a mile. It’s always been ugly. Real ugly. There is incredible specificity in energy systems, both genetic and trained.
It may be “ugly”, I have no doubt about that. My point is that 5:17 is really not very fast at all for someone who runs like he does. He isnt a 400m guy anymore but still cranks out 46 lows. You need some endurance to do that.
I’m also assuming that he would get a few shots at it to learn how he needs to pace it. As long as he doesn’t overextend the first few laps, sub-5 should be easy.
Can’t imagine that he could run very fast at all for a mile. Sort of reminds me when shortly after the Seoul Olympics that FloJo claimed she would break the 5K WR because the pace was so slow. If I recall correctly she managed a 29 min or so 5K and Running Times taunted her in print repeatedly until her untimely, but not unsurprising, passing.
I would love to see Bolt run the mile. The explosion as he hit the wall after 800m would be spectacular.
4:20, since he is Jamaican
.
Does anyone know when he ran that 2:10 800m cited by the article? I’m assuming he was much younger than he is now, but his training could have been geared more to mid-distance then…
Depending on the conditions under which he ran that, it could point against him being able to break five minutes right now without any training. He could probably pretty easily break five minutes with training, but out of the blocks right now? I tend to doubt that.
He’s 6’5"'ish, 210lbs of fastwitch muscle…5:00+ and it better be “cool runnings” in Rio he would be a puddle after 3 laps.
It may be “ugly”, I have no doubt about that. My point is that 5:17 is really not very fast at all for someone who runs like he does. He isnt a 400m guy anymore but still cranks out 46 lows. You need some endurance to do that.
I’m also assuming that he would get a few shots at it to learn how he needs to pace it. As long as he doesn’t overextend the first few laps, sub-5 should be easy.
I dunno…I’ve watched some sprint specific swimmers (50m primarily, 100m if he had to) “struggle” to go under 6 minutes for a 500yd test. (this guy had trials cuts for 50m and/or 100m this year, so he’s legit)
I know deep down they CAN do it, but their minds are so focused on how far it is that they really seem to suck at it sometimes.
Bolt is a unique athlete. I dont think that Justin Gatlin or Asafa Powell could run much faster than (if even go under) 5:00 but I suspect Bolt could roll out of bed and run 4:30. And if trained for it I would think he would be really fast. His event was the 400 as a youth so I bet he ran the 800 a couple of times. Would be interesting to dig out what he went back then.
That’s my point…he’s inherently a 400m runner from youth and has “enough” endurance to run a fast mile. He’s not from the mould of Powell or Gatlin or most decathletes.
If he can run a single 400m in say 44 seconds tomorrow, then 65+65+68+72 = 4:30. Should be easy jogging for 2.5 laps and then it will get hard, but he’s not going to blow to the point of running a 90 second final lap.
Bolt is a unique athlete. I dont think that Justin Gatlin or Asafa Powell could run much faster than (if even go under) 5:00 but I suspect Bolt could roll out of bed and run 4:30. And if trained for it I would think he would be really fast. His event was the 400 as a youth so I bet he ran the 800 a couple of times. Would be interesting to dig out what he went back then.
One more thing as a fast 400m guy in high school and probably running the 200m too there is a good chance he had to run multiple rounds of 400’s and 200’s and then likely raced 4x400 relay and maybe even 4x100. People forget that if you’re an “all rounder sprinter” then you’re constantly running all day. And Bolt played football (soccer) in youth and was a fast bowler in cricket (if you don’t know what that is, basically you do constant 50m sprints all day before you hurl the ball at the batsman…requires decent endurance).
Bolt has even hinted that he’s like to try out for pro soccer when he retires but it might be more of a joke given the level of top flight footballers in Europe (he’s expressed interest in playing in the Premier League and is a Manchester United fan of sorts).
Dev