Another VDOT question

My VDOT values from recent races are 44 from a 5K, 42 from a 10K and 38 from a half marathon. Which VDOT should I use for optimal training paces for a marathon that is 18 weeks out ? I thought the point of the whole system was to precisely define optimal training paces. A range of threshold paces from 7:33 to 8:33 does not seem very precise.

That is a pretty wide spread between you 5k and 21k abilities. I would have you use the fastest paces, derived from your 5k race, but also be aware that the longer you run, the more likely you are to need the paces from the 21k race.

This all assumes that both of those races were roughly equally rested all out efforts. I might first have you run another half marathon to improve on your piss poor performance. Was that off a long run of like 45 minutes or something?

I would think that the longer race is more accurate. Obviously the best predictor is the one that most closely approximates the race you are trying to train for.
I am no expert but I think that VDOT assumes ‘you have done the work’ if you want to draw inference from a race of shorter duration. i.e. a 5 km race VDOT will give you a decent approximation ifor a marathon if you are fit enough to do a marathon at the same level that you are fit enough to do the 5KM.
Again, I migt be wrong but looking at you numbers I would think that you have a fitness issue.

My VDOT values from recent races are 44 from a 5K, 42 from a 10K and 38 from a half marathon. Which VDOT should I use for optimal training paces for a marathon that is 18 weeks out ? I thought the point of the whole system was to precisely define optimal training paces. A range of threshold paces from 7:33 to 8:33 does not seem very precise.

We’re conditions similar for all races? Wind, due point, temperature, rain, rest, illness?

There is another thread indicating that most people have higher VDOTs for a 5K than for a half marathon. My spread may be wider than other’s. My piss poor half marathon involved slowing down dramatically at mile 8. 90% of training and racing is under ideal cool, flat conditions. There is definitely a shortage of training volume going on but my long training run for the half marathon was about 1 hr 40 min.
Clearly from a perspective of predicting my future performance in a marathon, I should use the lowest VDOT value. The question is which value I should use for currrent training paces as I try to ramp up volume over the next 18 weeks.
Are you suggesting that I use the high VDOT for short training runs and the low VDOT for long training runs ?

The spread is wide, but it’s not extremely abnormal. These values seem to indicate that you don’t have a sufficient long distance base, which is really to say that you’re either more fittingly a short distance guy, or you haven’t trained with enough specificity at long distances.

Assuming parity between race conditions, it would seem practical to lean on your longer-distance VDOT … however, I have seen mention by Daniels (lacking the specific reference) that when building into longer distances, an athlete should use the fastest VDOT available as that’s an indicator of their innate ability. In other words, you should go with your 5k VDOT.

When I test VDOT outside of races, I typically shoot for the 10-12k range as I’ve always found it to correlate well with my race results. My 5k VDOT often causes me to reach a bit outside of my sustainable training intensity, due in large part to swimming+cycling volume.

There is another thread indicating that most people have higher VDOTs for a 5K than for a half marathon. My spread may be wider than other’s. My piss poor half marathon involved slowing down dramatically at mile 8. 90% of training and racing is under ideal cool, flat conditions. There is definitely a shortage of training volume going on but my long training run for the half marathon was about 1 hr 40 min.
Clearly from a perspective of predicting my future performance in a marathon, I should use the lowest VDOT value. The question is which value I should use for currrent training paces as I try to ramp up volume over the next 18 weeks.
Are you suggesting that I use the high VDOT for short training runs and the low VDOT for long training runs ?

when was the HM. What kind have volume have you been doing since? how long have you been running? weight? What are your goals for the marathon ( complete or compete)?

There is another thread indicating that most people have higher VDOTs for a 5K than for a half marathon. My spread may be wider than other’s. My piss poor half marathon involved slowing down dramatically at mile 8. 90% of training and racing is under ideal cool, flat conditions. There is definitely a shortage of training volume going on but my long training run for the half marathon was about 1 hr 40 min.
Clearly from a perspective of predicting my future performance in a marathon, I should use the lowest VDOT value. The question is which value I should use for currrent training paces as I try to ramp up volume over the next 18 weeks.
Are you suggesting that I use the high VDOT for short training runs and the low VDOT for long training runs ?

Ok so you blew up during the half marathon. You left that out at first. A VDOT value from a very poorly paced race (i.e. blowing up) is a worthless number. Your 5k value is what you should use. Just realize that for longer/slower runs your Long and Tempo paces might need to be adjusted upwards BUT only until you have addressed your shortcomings. For the threshold and interval paces, the higher VDOT would be the one to use.

You are your best performances. Don’t sell yourself short.

I NEVER use VDOT scores from distances over 5K, they are not predictable. The whole idea is a max effort test protocol. I often use 2 miles because many folks can’t even give a max effort for 3.1. VDOT paces are dervied by all out efforts at short distances. You shouldn’t have a VDOT score for every races distance. make no sense. Set your VDOT busting a nut at 2 miles or 3.1 and retest every 6 weeks. Number will eventually move to match you level of fitness.

I NEVER use VDOT scores from distances over 5K, they are not predictable. The whole idea is a max effort test protocol. I often use 2 miles because many folks can’t even give a max effort for 3.1. VDOT paces are dervied by all out efforts at short distances. You shouldn’t have a VDOT score for every races distance. make no sense. Set your VDOT busting a nut at 2 miles or 3.1 and retest every 6 weeks. Number will eventually move to match you level of fitness.

It seems that you don’t understand the whole concept of VDOT. Time to pick up Daniels’ book and read it again.

VDOT was a metric that Jack Daniels came up with. You are redefining it greatly. The VDOT you are supposed to use is the highest value, as long as the conditions match. ie if you have lower VDOT on a hilly cross country course vs a track, but are going to be traing on a hilly cross country course , then use that.

VDOTs from shorter races are typically higher for beginners / casual runners because they don’t put in the miles for a well run marathon. but for someone like Ryan Hall his VDOT from the marathon or 1/2 is much higher than any shorter distance.