Ok, so my question is how much of a lead do you think he will have out of the water?
I know he is a strong cyclist and his running will probably be the biggest question mark, as far as the marathon distance goes. Do you think he will have a big enough after the swim lead to maybe be first into t2?
No. The cyclists will eat him up. He can’t outsplit the cyclists in the swim by as much as they can outsplit him on the bike. Not saying he won’t do well, but he won’t have the lead into T2.
Why so certain he’ll lead out of the water?
It depends on is his race execution. I think he could come off the bike in first if he wanted to, but he’d likely blow out his running legs. Since this is first trip to Kona and his first Ironman, I bet he’ll follow a more conservative approach once out of the water.
I remember Wolfgang came out of the water and off the bike in 1st a few times back in the late 80s/ early 90s. Was he a better biker than Potts relative to the field?
Potts can swim, bike, and run with the best of them. He certainly will be a contender. His running, I don’t think is a question mark at all. He is one of the best out there.
Um I don’t think he has even run a marathon, correct me if I am wrong. So I think that is a question mark.
I am not sure he will be the first out of the water, I am just assuming based on his swimming background. Let me ask you this…who is even in the same class as him as a swimmer?
The uberbikers are going to take 10mins+ out of him over the trip. For mine he will get caught by the Macca, Crowie type lead group and come into t2 with the runners.
Riding 180 solo in kona on debut would be a massive ask - the guy can obviously run, whether he can run a great marathon we will see in Oct but he is better trying to make it a foot race from the lead bunch then to try and go with Stadler and Co when they blast past.
He could hope that Luke McKenzie, Faris and the other gun swimmers with some biking presence get away in the water. Then he can go with them beating that Macca group out of the water onto the bikes so he doesn’t have to ride solo. Maybe attempting to swim off the front will create that, maybe it will mean he leads out solo, again we’ll have to see.
Either way i am suggesting he will NOT come into t2 first (nor alone) for that matter.
I’m sure there are plenty of Europeans of outstanding pedigree flying under the radar (Francisco Pontano anyone?)…but Benjamin Sanson (FRA) stands out.
I wonder if he is even making a serious go at winning. Since it is his first IM and first Kona on top of that he may just be using this as a learning experience.
I do look foward to watching him race 
yep, no marathon, so he has no chance. just like Craig Alexander and Sam McGlone last year.
Running a marathon is not THAT hard for a professional endurance athlete. But who knows if he leads the swim. Maybe he sits on Pantano’s feet and saves energy, or maybe he leads the swim and then waits for Lieto and other so to come by and then gets on their wheels.
He is definately a top 5 threat, or more depending on his heat adaptation.
My first thought would be just what you said. lead the swim, get passed by lieto, staddler etc on the bike and try and hang with them. Then go into t2 with the runners. Im thinking a top 10 finish would be realistic.
Um I don’t think he has even run a marathon, correct me if I am wrong. So I think that is a question mark.
Wasn’t that Luc Van Lierde’s story going into Kona the year he won?
Jeff
after seeing him at Timberman, and break the course record by 6 minutes, I think he has a legitimate chance at winning the race. As someone said, Crowie and McGlone did ok last year, as I recall.
Who knows, but it’ll be fun to watch…Not sure how he does in the heat, as that will play a role. I’d certainly target him for top 5 as well…
First, Andy Potts is an incredible athlete and IMO will be a contender just like Crowie was last year. I am not sure that leading out of the water buys him much, he will definitely want to team up with the likes of Faris, Lieto ect and try and put a little time into Macca and Crowie but at the end of the day it will all come back together. The bike will be very tactical and my assumption is that Andy will stay with the lead group and test his moxie on the run! Again, probably following the same freshman year tactics as Crowie.
I would put my money on Potts to win this race. Go andy go!!! He is a machine and frickin’ fast
As I posted on June 24th on another thread…
Oct. 11th UPDATE
Potts wins Kona! Andy Potts of the USA used a blazing fast run to chase down his competitors in the 2008 Ironman World Championships. His run time of 2:39 was by far the fastest of the day and put him 5 minutes in front of the next athlete at the finish line to win his first Ironman World Title. Potts who is the current 70.3 World Champion missed making the Olympic team this summer, and turned his focus on long course racing. " In retrospect, not making the (Olympic) team was one of the best thing that happened to me this year."
-Believe it
Wasn’t that Luc Van Lierde’s story going into Kona the year he won?
Luc had other things going for him…that they weren’t testing for back then…
Ummm, didn’t Pontano get a positive drug test this summer? Shouldn’t he be watching from his house rather than leading the race?
Sarge
It’s almost certain that he will exit the water in first place - why would he hold back on the swim? - and I bet he will be in contention for most of the day and maybe arrive with the lead pack to T2. But after that it will be hard to keep up with guys like Macca or even Alexander (just to mention this two). Take Alexander for example who’s a world class runner on triathlon and he had a great run last year in Kona but had already ran a marathon. That makes a huge difference I believe.
Yeah I know about Luc… but that’s one in a million.
Not sure he will be first out of the water. You get some pure swimmers in the race looking for some TV time and then the disappear. He will however, be well ahead of all the favorites…