Hi all, can I ask what the rough goal Quali time for 70.3 Worlds would be for Men 35-39? I know the time needed can vary by course and time of year.
My season goals are sub 4:30 at 70.3 Chatt and 70.3 Lou. If I was to podium AG it looks like more like a 4:20 or faster might be needed for worlds qualification, depending on the roll down.
Thanks for your thoughts.
I did some google searching and checked Coach Cox (wouldn’t load 70.3 data for me).
Figure when in doubt, try to beat the 3rd fastest AG time from the year prior for 70.3 WC qualification.
Hi all, can I ask what the rough goal Quali time for 70.3 Worlds would be for Men 35-39? I know the time needed can vary by course and time of year.
My season goals are sub 4:30 at 70.3 Chatt and 70.3 Lou. If I was to podium AG it looks like more like a 4:20 or faster might be needed for worlds qualification, depending on the roll down.
Thanks for your thoughts.
I did some google searching and checked Coach Cox (wouldn’t load 70.3 data for me).
Figure when in doubt, try to beat the 3rd fastest AG time from the year prior for 70.3 WC qualification.
You stand a highly likely chance of getting it if you’re sub 4:40 in my opinion based on the roll downs I’ve seen.
I imagine you probably have good chance coming top 5-10, with a 4:30-40 depending on course.
In Oceania you need to be top 3 in the AG and ~4:15. 1 roll-down in the entire men’s field at 70.3 Busselton the other week.
70.3 world slots are a total crap shoot in my experience. That’s a late season race nowhere near the race, so you have a decent shot that it will roll down. Best advice is to not think about it (beyond motivation) and just go race the best race you can race and hope the chips land in your favor I have seen races where in some age groups spots have rolled to a different age group while others haven’t rolled at all. Just comes down to who races that day. Do the work and come ready to race hard.
Yeah I think you’re right looking at previous results but weather/any small on-course changes can result in a small swing year to year. If you get warm weather & you’re fixated on 4:30, you might go 4:40 when 4:35 = 4:30 & you needed that 4:35 to qualify. Other years, it could be a 4:25 that = that 4:30 because conditions are perfect. While not perfect, I think looking at USAT score ratings would be helpful for you. See the score rating for the slots given out at those races. Look at that over the last couple of years. Then see where you typically score. But I think you’re generally in the ballpark M35-39. Sub-4:30 usually gets it done or has you very close. Sub-4:40 & top-10 or so AG gives you a chance with roll downs. Worth it for you to go to the awards if you end up being really close.
I’d say the better question is if you are putting out a 13:14 in IMWI and a 14:09 in IMAZ, what is your training plan to get to a 4:30 in Lou or Chat. That’s the equivalent of chopping of 3-4hrs in an IM.
Not sure where you’re currently at but you should have a good chance if you’re in range of top 5 of your age group. Slots rolled deep at Waco for all age groups under 40. It’s not a bucket list race like Kona and a huge expense for people starting out or still raising kids. Slots didn’t roll down much or at all over 50.
Honestly, if you can go sub 4:30 on faster courses reliably, you’re pretty much a shoe-in for 70.3 worlds, the way roll-downs have been going the last several years and the larger number of slots often a available now. I’ve qualified with 4:26 and I’ve qualified with 4:4x on the same course when I f-ed up nutrition or pacing and plodded around the run course a couple years later. So if 4:2x is within your capability on any full length (non current aided swim) course, you will qualify, probably even if you have a bad race.
I’d say the better question is if you are putting out a 13:14 in IMWI and a 14:09 in IMAZ, what is your training plan to get to a 4:30 in Lou or Chat. That’s the equivalent of chopping of 3-4hrs in an IM.
Oh nice. I’m a physician and we had a baby that’s now a toddler. IM AZ was straight out of fellowship and done on 3 months of training, then IM WI this past September was actually just done as a bonus race a couple weeks after the Leadville 100 MTB in CO (my goal race of the season), and my training was geared toward that. Now my work and family schedule is sorted, so I’m training consistently, using a Trainer Road mid volume program I modify. I have a swim and run background so for Olympic my swim split will be ~23min swim, my bike FTP will be 3.8 W/kg (maybe 63 min bike leg), and my Oly 10km will be ~40min (was 43min last year on minimal run training; I have a 36min open 10km PR), so with transitions I’m shooting for ~2:10 Olympic time and a 4:30 - 4:40 half iron time (30min Swim+T1, ~2:30 bike, ~1:30 - 1:35 run).
Thanks very much for the reply; yeah it seems like for competitive races or AG podium it’s more like that 4:15 timing, but maybe could get lucky with roll downs at other races.
70.3 world slots are a total crap shoot in my experience. That’s a late season race nowhere near the race, so you have a decent shot that it will roll down. Best advice is to not think about it (beyond motivation) and just go race the best race you can race and hope the chips land in your favor I have seen races where in some age groups spots have rolled to a different age group while others haven’t rolled at all. Just comes down to who races that day. Do the work and come ready to race hard.
Thanks very much; seems like my plan to just do the best I can, and I could be in the zone of getting a roll down (if I’m like 4:25 - 4:40), with racing often enough I could get a spot eventually.
Not sure where you’re currently at but you should have a good chance if you’re in range of top 5 of your age group. Slots rolled deep at Waco for all age groups under 40. It’s not a bucket list race like Kona and a huge expense for people starting out or still raising kids. Slots didn’t roll down much or at all over 50.
Awesome, thanks for the reply. We have some family in the area so that could be a fun destination race for us.
Honestly, if you can go sub 4:30 on faster courses reliably, you’re pretty much a shoe-in for 70.3 worlds, the way roll-downs have been going the last several years and the larger number of slots often a available now. I’ve qualified with 4:26 and I’ve qualified with 4:4x on the same course when I f-ed up nutrition or pacing and plodded around the run course a couple years later. So if 4:2x is within your capability on any full length (non current aided swim) course, you will qualify, probably even if you have a bad race.
I was 4:45 at Chattanooga and not even top 15 in 35-39, and I was doing Olympics around 2:15 at the time.
Top 5 were all sub 4:20. 9th place was 4:27.
The run is near interminable.
Thanks for the reply; yeah it’s impressive how fast people are. I don’t see myself going much faster than 4:30 based off the amount of training time I have so I think if a future goal is qualifying I’ll just be consistent and maybe snag a rolldown slot.
Hey also, I don’t see that I have my name in my profile and I haven’t linked my blog, so I appreciate you took the time to look into my racing to help inform your thoughts but how’d you grab my name? Prior post?
I have seen races where in some age groups spots have rolled to a different age group while others haven’t rolled at all. Just comes down to who races that day. Do the work and come ready to race hard.