70.3 WC's - Can Anyone Beat Sam Long?!

Triathlon Forum
2

first, it’s going to be a legit championship. Anyone have the start list?

I have to assume the Norwegians will be there. Which Euros?

second, I think Emma Pallant-Brown could’ve challenged Ryf had Ryf been at Boulder 70.3! So, will Ryf be in StG and will we get to see that go down?

Sam: that 1:54/1:12 combo is foreboding of what’s to come in StG. For those who don’t know, the Boulder 70.3 run is completely on gravel that can feel like ball bearings underfoot at times and has a stretch of ankle-sprain inducing doubletrack.

It’ll come down to his swim.** On his IG today, he commented that he was easily clipping off paces in lcm faster than he could race at.** He’s busy addressing possible issues: roll down race suit under swimskin in the case that the shoulders of the race suit and slowing him down; hit up 200-400m takeout speed in training… swimming with him several days a week and seeing what he does consistently in lcm, I do think he can figure it out and convert his training to racing and that alone would have been a 3min reduction in time at Boulder 70.3, which would have put him 6.5 min over 2nd place. So, assuming he can fix the swim, I’m not sure there’s any stopping him in StG.

This is not at all unusual, since OWS doesn’t benefit from walls. IME, my SCY times are inline with my wetsuit OWS times (walls = wetsuit floatation - sighting).

The issue at Boulder seemed to be that he lost ground on the takeout and was stuck in a slow pack.

3

Yeah, not sure if it’s the same video clips on Instagram, but his post race on youtube, he said that he started the boulder swim on the wrong side and ended up leading the slow group instead of hanging on to the faster group. So maybe lost some time and energy there. He also said that the record pace felt pretty comfortable.

https://youtu.be/3zTZJPkHQwk

Does his right foot look hyper pronated in this video?

4

second, I think Emma Pallant-Brown could’ve challenged Ryf had Ryf been at Boulder 70.3! So, will Ryf be in StG and will we get to see that go down?

Yes, I tend to agree. Ryf’s win in Rapperswil was not her best, she was some 9min off her best time there (and normally race is much earlier in the season) and also the gap to male winner was one of the biggest. I know she was not pushed, but she never has been, so the comparison stands from that point of view.

She has been very quiet since Tulsa, but did give thanks to a coach in her IG post-race post. So might have decided not go at it completely alone. WIll be interesting to see, but I guess she deserves the benefit of the doubt if anybody.

Startlist would be nice, are there otheres coming like Haug, Lucy Charles, Holly Lawrence etc…

5

I would imagine the World Champs will be more like Challenge Daytona for Sam. He has definitely improved & the field will be a little different from that but I think 5th-ish is right. His swim hurts him and his run is good but there will be some people who can make up what he’ll gain on the bike.

Looking quickly at the qualified list, I would think Aernouts, Angert, Blummenfelt, Brownlee, Drietz, Goodwin, Gomez, Hansen, Iden, Kanute, Kienle, Sanders, Van Riel, Von Berg, etc., call all challenge up front. I’m sure I missed some names but the point is that this is different from a normal pro race. I love Sam. I love watching his YouTube. But this race isn’t about social media presence. A lot of good guys are in this field. I want to see him do well but he won’t run away with the race. There will be a lot of good bikers, working together, from the front swim pack. He’ll have his work cut out.

6

I would imagine the World Champs will be more like Challenge Daytona for Sam. He has definitely improved & the field will be a little different from that but I think 5th-ish is right. His swim hurts him and his run is good but there will be some people who can make up what he’ll gain on the bike.

Looking quickly at the qualified list, I would think Aernouts, Angert, Blummenfelt, Brownlee, Drietz, Goodwin, Gomez, Hansen, Iden, Kanute, Kienle, Sanders, Van Riel, Von Berg, etc., call all challenge up front. I’m sure I missed some names but the point is that this is different from a normal pro race. I love Sam. I love watching his YouTube. But this race isn’t about social media presence. A lot of good guys are in this field. I want to see him do well but he won’t run away with the race. There will be a lot of good bikers, working together, from the front swim pack. He’ll have his work cut out.

Bottom line, has to cut 2-3min off that swim time.

The factor that I think questions some of your logic is the course. Daytona was dead flat. The hills on the bike and run (especially the downhills where Sam thrives) will make this a different beast. But, if he comes out of the water 3min behind, with his recent bike/run form, it’ll be a close finish, but definitely not a run-away win. Based on recent form, injuries and more and past shown abilities on tough courses and the fact that Kienle and Sanders will aid Sam on the bike to some extent, I don’t see any names in your list that are clear threats. If Frodo or Lange were listed, different story…

7

While I hope he does well, I think he is going to learn the same lessons Lionel did at Mooloolaba in ‘16.

Pack dynamics + a critical mass of quality swim/bikers at a championship create a front pack with enough firepower that a solo rider will struggle to reel in.

And on the run, there are probably ~10 guys in the race that can outrun him. And I imagine at least 5 of them will get off the bike before Sam. So I could see him finishing 7-15th OA pretty conceivably while still riding great power and a delivering a good run (for him).

8

While I hope he does well, I think he is going to learn the same lessons Lionel did at Mooloolaba in ‘16.

Pack dynamics + a critical mass of quality swim/bikers at a championship create a front pack with enough firepower that a solo rider will struggle to reel in.

And on the run, there are probably ~10 guys in the race that can outrun him. And I imagine at least 5 of them will get off the bike before Sam. So I could see him finishing 7-15th OA pretty conceivably while still riding great power and a delivering a good run (for him).

All great points.

Which 10 guys are running faster than him on that course?

9

Just curious - anyone have any data reference about potential time losses from a sleeved trisuit not rolled down under your wetsuit?

I did see that Frodo did it at his TriBattle, and I was honestly surprised, as I would have thought the wetsuit itself would give far more resistance to a swim stroke than a measly trisuit sleeve.

10

He is awesome but yes he will be beaten at the World 70.3 champs. His swimming isn’t good enough yet (and maybe ever). He is a better bet at full Iron distance.

11

Just curious - anyone have any data reference about potential time losses from a sleeved trisuit not rolled down under your wetsuit?

I did see that Frodo did it at his TriBattle, and I was honestly surprised, as I would have thought the wetsuit itself would give far more resistance to a swim stroke than a measly trisuit sleeve.

I think Sam is playing with that.

My n=1 experience. I was wearing my Roka trisuit up under my wetsuit and I had the worse swims in my life, having done sub 25min 70.3 swims. A peer pointed out that I was being dumb: trisuits like the Roka are optimized for aerodynamics on the bike, not for swimming. So, in my next race, I rolled it down inside my wetsuit and I took out the first half of the swim really cautiously after too many races where my shoulders gave out like I had done a weight workout, and half way through that swim, I felt amazing and crushed the 2nd half, easily swimming a 26min 70.3 swim. So, my experience is that trisuits optimized for biking are horrible to swim in

12

Just curious - anyone have any data reference about potential time losses from a sleeved trisuit not rolled down under your wetsuit?

I did see that Frodo did it at his TriBattle, and I was honestly surprised, as I would have thought the wetsuit itself would give far more resistance to a swim stroke than a measly trisuit sleeve.

I think Sam is playing with that.

My n=1 experience. I was wearing my Roka trisuit up under my wetsuit and I had the worse swims in my life, having done sub 25min 70.3 swims. A peer pointed out that I was being dumb: trisuits like the Roka are optimized for aerodynamics on the bike, not for swimming. So, in my next race, I rolled it down inside my wetsuit and I took out the first half of the swim really cautiously after too many races where my shoulders gave out like I had done a weight workout, and half way through that swim, I felt amazing and crushed the 2nd half, easily swimming a 26min 70.3 swim. So, my experience is that trisuits optimized for biking are horrible to swim in

This is helpful - I just did an Oly distance race, and while I’m just a barely better than MOP swimmer, I was handily beaten by people who literally swim 20sec/100 slower than me in pools on their Strava, and I was wearing a sleeved trisuit. I’m sure it wasn’t a wetsuit issue - I’ve practiced a lot with my Roka wetsuit both in pools and OWS, and I have no problems with it, and yes, it’s faster by 7-10 sec/100 with the wetsuit.

I have another upcoming tri soon and am definitely going to try the rolldown sleeves.

13

He is awesome but yes he will be beaten at the World 70.3 champs. His swimming isn’t good enough yet (and maybe ever). He is a better bet at full Iron distance.

fun with numbers:

Brownlee was almost 4min slower on the StG run course than Sam earlier this year. Tim Don 3min slower in 2015 than Sam’s run, Don’s run was about the same as Sam’s 2021 run in 2014 when Frodeno ran a minute faster but biked a full 8min slower than Sam in 2021 and Sam is on track to be 2min faster on the bike at WC’s, so that would provide Sam a hypothetical bike/run combo (not including swim deficit) that puts him 9min up on a 2014 Frodo, 16min up on 2015 Don, 6min up on a 2017 Brownlee, and 3min up on a 2018 Sanders.

14

None of those times are from the last three years, apart from Sam’s obviously.
Triathlon has moved on. I’d wager even Frodeno is a better athlete now? You have the Norwegians and Brownlee too, all pushing boundaries and making everyone up their game. Swimming is now almost as important at 70.3 as it is in ITU racing, especially when the field is stacked. (Note I don’t know if Brownlee and Frodeno will be at St George?).

15

None of those times are from the last three years, apart from Sam’s obviously.
Triathlon has moved on. I’d wager even Frodeno is a better athlete now? You have the Norwegians and Brownlee too, all pushing boundaries and making everyone up their game. Swimming is now almost as important at 70.3 as it is in ITU racing, especially when the field is stacked. (Note I don’t know if Brownlee and Frodeno will be at St George?).

Hmmm, I’m not sure that’s accurate. I’m not sure people are running faster than Frodeno’s 1:09 on the hilly StG course, now. Now, I think Sam could do a 1:59 bike and 1:10 run on that course this year. Lionel isn’t biking at that level. Who else can do that?

and no, I also don’t think Brownlee or Frodo will be at StG 70.3 WC’s and I think the PTO just gave Iden Brownlee’s points since Brownlee is probably injured and unable to make it to PTO - magical how Brownlee has been 2nd on the PTO list since it’s advent and, poof, disappeared from the list altogether and Iden jumped up to 3rd…

16

I would imagine the World Champs will be more like Challenge Daytona for Sam. He has definitely improved & the field will be a little different from that but I think 5th-ish is right. His swim hurts him and his run is good but there will be some people who can make up what he’ll gain on the bike.

Looking quickly at the qualified list, I would think Aernouts, Angert, Blummenfelt, Brownlee, Drietz, Goodwin, Gomez, Hansen, Iden, Kanute, Kienle, Sanders, Van Riel, Von Berg, etc., call all challenge up front. I’m sure I missed some names but the point is that this is different from a normal pro race. I love Sam. I love watching his YouTube. But this race isn’t about social media presence. A lot of good guys are in this field. I want to see him do well but he won’t run away with the race. There will be a lot of good bikers, working together, from the front swim pack. He’ll have his work cut out.

Bottom line, has to cut 2-3min off that swim time.

The factor that I think questions some of your logic is the course. Daytona was dead flat. The hills on the bike and run (especially the downhills where Sam thrives) will make this a different beast. But, if he comes out of the water 3min behind, with his recent bike/run form, it’ll be a close finish, but definitely not a run-away win. Based on recent form, injuries and more and past shown abilities on tough courses and the fact that Kienle and Sanders will aid Sam on the bike to some extent, I don’t see any names in your list that are clear threats. If Frodo or Lange were listed, different story…

You don’t see any clear threats? Like guys who beat him at Daytona? Like an Olympic Champion? Like the guy who out sprinted him there in April? Just saying that this field will be different from 70.3 Boulder. Not rooting against Sam. Just taking a rational look at the field, knowing that he’ll have his work cut out for him with the quality of bikers coming out of the water in front of him. He’s also been racing a ton. We’ll see if that ever catches up to him too.

17

I would imagine the World Champs will be more like Challenge Daytona for Sam. He has definitely improved & the field will be a little different from that but I think 5th-ish is right. His swim hurts him and his run is good but there will be some people who can make up what he’ll gain on the bike.

Looking quickly at the qualified list, I would think Aernouts, Angert, Blummenfelt, Brownlee, Drietz, Goodwin, Gomez, Hansen, Iden, Kanute, Kienle, Sanders, Van Riel, Von Berg, etc., call all challenge up front. I’m sure I missed some names but the point is that this is different from a normal pro race. I love Sam. I love watching his YouTube. But this race isn’t about social media presence. A lot of good guys are in this field. I want to see him do well but he won’t run away with the race. There will be a lot of good bikers, working together, from the front swim pack. He’ll have his work cut out.

Bottom line, has to cut 2-3min off that swim time.

The factor that I think questions some of your logic is the course. Daytona was dead flat. The hills on the bike and run (especially the downhills where Sam thrives) will make this a different beast. But, if he comes out of the water 3min behind, with his recent bike/run form, it’ll be a close finish, but definitely not a run-away win. Based on recent form, injuries and more and past shown abilities on tough courses and the fact that Kienle and Sanders will aid Sam on the bike to some extent, I don’t see any names in your list that are clear threats. If Frodo or Lange were listed, different story…

You don’t see any clear threats? Like guys who beat him at Daytona? Like an Olympic Champion? Like the guy who out sprinted him there in April? Just saying that this field will be different from 70.3 Boulder. Not rooting against Sam. Just taking a rational look at the field, knowing that he’ll have his work cut out for him with the quality of bikers coming out of the water in front of him. He’s also been racing a ton. We’ll see if that ever catches up to him too.

I agree with you to an extent, but Daytona was pancake flat and a draft-fest. StG is hilly AF. I absolutely do not think Iden or Blu can match Sam’s bike/run combo within 5min… can they outswim him by 5min? that’s an actual question: can they?

18

Iden, Blummenfelt, Hanson, Gomez, Funk or Van Riel can beat Sam Long
.

19

Iden, Blummenfelt, Hanson, Gomez, Funk or Van Riel can beat Sam Long

cool, toss out some projected times for that particular course; I’m curious if the times add up.

My guess is that Iden, Blu, Funk can’t break 2:03 even with a group. Gomez can’t break 2:05. Hanson can’t break 2:06. I don’t think any of them run faster than 2:10.

20

Yeah, not sure if it’s the same video clips on Instagram, but his post race on youtube, he said that he started the boulder swim on the wrong side and ended up leading the slow group instead of hanging on to the faster group. So maybe lost some time and energy there. He also said that the record pace felt pretty comfortable.

https://youtu.be/3zTZJPkHQwk

Does his right foot look hyper pronated in this video?

His start was really bad at Boulder and that definitely is what set the tone for the swim. The right side had that disadvantage he mentioned of being 1-2 body lengths back and we got cut off a bit with the dock on the left pushing people in front of us. I think he also made the mistake of drafting too early and then not hopping on feet after he established himself.

I actually lined up right behind him (blue/yellow sleeves and pretty much the last to dive in), but still somehow ended up in front of him before the first buoy. I’m not sure how he got there but you can see him on some feet at the back very early on in the race day drone footage if you look hard. He also didn’t actually lead the slow group when he picked up the pace either (and we prefer being called “less fast”), he swam next to it instead. I breathed to my right every stroke and he was there breaking his own water for the entire second half, and I was behind two other people. It obviously didn’t hurt him swimming on his own because he broke the course record, but there were a few mistakes that cost him a better spot in the water.

And this post isn’t to call him out (I’m pro Sam). He’s an incredibly talented, hard working guy, I just swam next to him for the entire 28 minutes and 35 seconds and thought I’d share my observations since that swim has come up a lot in this thread.

21

I don’t think Lionel is racing St. George 70.3 World Champs, he’s doing Copenhagen, then Collins Cup and then Kona. And then probably a fall IM to bag his KQ and take that out of the equation for next year. I believe that is Lionel’s schedule.

As for Sam winning WC, I think his bike can make up the difference to ALMOST everyone, the two people that he may have a challenge catching are Ditlev and Von Berg, the same two who stayed away on the bike during the 70.3 North America champs earlier this year. I do think Sam’s bike has gottne better since his epic dual with Lionel. His run is right there, and could have gone either way earlier this year but Lionel carried the day.

Blu and Iden will add a different combination to the mix, but Blu is usually not out with the first group out of the swim, so he will be playing catch up on the bike as well.