5k Prediction Based Off Of Track Workout

Yesterday I ran 10x 400m @ 5:14 average with 400m recoveries (7:30-7:50/mi). It was getting tough toward the end, but still manageable. Can I PR on 6/20? What’s my number?

PR 17:24 (June 2014)

Yesterday I ran 10x 400m @ 5:14 average with 400m recoveries (7:30-7:50/mi). It was getting tough toward the end, but still manageable. Can I PR on 6/20? What’s my number?

PR 17:24 (June 2014)

Oh man it’s close! I’d say it depends on how solid your mileage has been recently. If you’re doing okay miles and it’s a nice course, then you could definitely get it! I’ll be the turd in the punch bowl and say 17:40…

SIKE! 17:14. Crush it!

What kind of course? Hilly, trail, flat, etc?

What is the weather supposed to be like?

What are you eating for breakfast?

Drinking the night before?

Get my drift … there are a lot of other factors besides one track workout you are telling us about.

I ran Boston in April and switched to a 5k plan after a couple of weeks of recovery. Since Boston I’m averaging in 30s and 40s per week and I’m coming up on the 1000 mile mark year to date.

Also, I did run a 17:43 on a flat course right at the beginning of this 5k plan (5/9).

What kind of course? Hilly, trail, flat, etc? Road. Mostly flat with the exception of a couple of small rollers.

What is the weather supposed to be like? Typical overnight lows are in the 60s with highs in the 80s this time of year. 8 AM start.

What are you eating for breakfast? Not much. Maybe a Stinger waffle and a half bottle of custom Infinit. Beet root juice 3-4 hours before.

Drinking the night before? Probably IPAs.

Get my drift … there are a lot of other factors besides one track workout you are telling us about.

I understand that there are a billion outside factors (some controllable, some not) that affect a race. I was just wondering if that track workout indicated that I am in shape to better my current PR from a performance standpoint.

based on your interval work and the vdot calculator, I get that you should be running it in ~16:30, but that sounds like a big jump from a month ago.

Assuming you have any kind of base I’ll guess 17:20. Paces are good, recovery is a little long. Go out at 5:30s and hold on

17 flat.

I did a very similar workout yesterday. My 2nd main set was 10x400 on 2:00min. I started out at 5:00/mi pace for the first few and the last couple were done at 5:20/mi. My recovery was much less than yours, ranging from 45-40 seconds but I was just walking.

I did a 5k earlier this year in 17:30 and would guess I could do one in 17 flat currently. My goal is 16:40 at the end of the tri season.

Based on my pace and results I would say you are not going to get there. My guess would be a 17:30-17:35.

Seems like a little bit too much recovery in between each interval to give any kind of 5k prediction. I’d say just shoot for 5:30 mile pace for the first 2 miles… If this works… PR. If after 2 miles you can’t hold on, you know what to work for in the future.

Yes. You can & will PR. 16:59. Those 400s were not crazy fast but those recoveries were too fast!
… My best 8 x 400 were 5-flat pace but slower / longer recoveries. PR was 17:08. Good luck!
(Not even sure I can run ONE 75 rested today)

400m is not the best predictor, 6x1k on 4mins is an awesome one.

Try and hold your current PR pace for the first two miles and then go hard in the last mile.

Best of luck!

A REALLY good track workout for predicting 5k time is to run around the thing 12 and a half times…

Sorry, couldn’t resist!

I reckon you will kick the balls out of it and go 17 flat. We get a bit scientific about these things and forget about the magic of race day which is worth an extra few percent. Embrace the hurt.

Good luck!

Haha! Thanks for the input, everyone. I’ll try to remember to report back after the race.