This will now be the 1st race that truly will start to shape the points race for the women, since this will now be Knibb’s 2nd race. Do we have 3 winners after 3 races or do we start to see Waugh or JD take a big step forward with 2nd win + keeping Knibb from the win.
Don’t think we’ll see “Waugh taking a [single] step forward” let alone a “2nd win” in Vancouver.
But your underlying message (it’s a three mare Race (to Qatar)) looks fair.
You may wish to add @Lucy_Charles to that conversation, if she goes well on Saturday. I also hope that Gentle will return to her 2024 excellence: needs to happen without delay.
‘Behind the Scenes’:
0:00 Jelle Geens Course Preview 2:15 Rico Bogen Bike Power 3:32 Lunch with Taylor Knibb 7:03 Meg McDonald & her Bloody Beautiful Bike 8:33 Sam Long’s Jinx
Looks fair? I thought Knibb already had been given all these T100 wins just by putting it on her schedule by the expert @Ajax_Bay himself. So this race is almost a “must win” for Knibb based on the fall schedule and how much racing it includes. But I will add, Knibb’s 2nd even though she likely can’t have a clean scorecard now, may turn out to be the best or tie for 2 scores (if she wins this race and JD gets 2nd). But her issue is that if she truly is only racing min schedule, every result has to matter, others may be able to replace/throw away a score.
I don’t think LCB can win the series. I think with anyone who wants to win Kona and the others who want to more T100 specialize, that will imo be the difference. The fall schedule in all of triathlon gets really compacted, I think that’'s certainly going to play a role in race results.
I had no clue Waugh wasn’t racing this race. I had just assumed if she raced SF she would race both US/canada west coast races. So I appreciaate you informing me in that manner, I literally would have watched the race wondering where she was. Didn’t care to look at the race starts anymore. Of course with as many Euro races, it makes sense Waugh can sit it out and still race more then enough races to replace if needed.
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What is interesting about her *current (it’s no longer new) coaching “team” is that she has a tri coach (virtually) and then she has a swim coach (locally), and I assume more local physio/psych experts within said team. That extra layer of communication, and even who handles the workout specifics; does she just “swim” on X day and whatever JD has for her, that’s it, or is the plan driven by DL and simply implemented by Dibens on deck. JD also has her own “squad” of athletes I believe, so I’m curious how that relationship works.
I can’t see Knibb racing more than 4 regular season T100 races (your “min schedule”. I expect her to race London and Frejus because it opens up options after Kona. If she has a fail then Dubai is the fall back, a week after Marbella.
Season load: two IMs, one 70.3, five T100s.
If LCB has a podium finish on Saturday I suggest she is clearly in the reckoning for top 3 in the Race to Qatar even with her Kona goal. Provided she manages to stay healthy. Sure to race London; likely to race Frejus (and that’s the 4). Suspect she’ll want to race Marbella (having now validated).
I note that this is the first time that Knibb and LCB have faced up to one another, since IMWC 2023 (20 months ago). At long last! The way LCB rode and ran at Eagleman suggest it’ll be close (we’ll see how much having to go deep to hold off Sodaro has created fatigue for Vancouver).
On the ‘T100 specialist’ thing, I note that Derron, Gentle and Waugh have neither Kona nor Marbella slots. So I guess they’ll race most of the T100s. Knibb and LCB have Kona and then the option of Marbella. Which will certainly ‘compact’ / complicate their October and November schedule.
Waugh, without Kona and Marbella, has a variety of T100s she can race. There’ll be a reason why she hasn’t stayed in NA to race here, but she has not shared that. I half expect her to race two WTCS races and try to have a high enough ranking for Wollongong. Starting with Hamburg.
I may drag this across to the main T100 2025 thread idc.
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The race load isn’t always the question. It’s the demands of competition that you generally meet by distance specific training that is the issue. Even more so if/when you have to race a backloaded schedule from T100 to IM distance all in a very compact time frame. So in addition to distance specific training for an IM WC that is only getting stronger and stronger she also must race faster paced efforts. Again I know you ST experts love to discount specificity but generally that plays out more than it doesn’t.
So please give your rebuttal on whatever your expertise disagrees with. Your original “assumption” based theory really made no sense cus high performance athletes can change literally within season. So saying she was going to just show up and win cus she did last year , was complete discount on other athletes improving and her having to juggle the different race demands. KM basically came to the conclusion that in order to WIN she couldn’t race such a varied distance. We may see that w Knibb now as well especially if Kona is the “focus”. So it’s all there for her to race it all and win the triple. But that’s a really really hard ask and n today’s professional climate. So when she does win it all you can come back on here and say your more or an expert then I am, deal? Come on and dunk on me all you want.
I rarely “predict” race results and more talk bigger picture or strategy within said race roster/dynamcis. Knibb very well could win every race the rest of the year. She also is still “learning” within the IM dynamics and she potentially may favor that for training than T100 demands. Again it’s really really hard to win across the board with all the non-draft distances at this point in the professional game. (She has yet to do that so far in her career)
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Vancouver being less technical and less hilly will likely give knibb a min more on the bike and I guess it will be a rather tight race for the win
so to add race load ,demands of the competition , courses , overall form and daily form matter
you can listen at chasing the burns how the set up roughty works with Taylor dan and Julie in the Julie dibbens pod.
as with every athlete he coaches dan does not write swim work outs he just writes what type of swim to be done on certain days and then either atheltes write their sessions themselves or have a swim coach
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The summer T100 races is when likely Knibb needs to dominant simply because she’s going to have such a tighter fall race demands schedule. It’s also when theoretically the best time to be t100 training specific vs truly Kona prep time frame.
She may race with a fire the rest of the year and crush it. She may fall just short at every WC distance in terms of winning. That would logically be more the “prediction” than her winning every race and every non-draft world championship. She’ll easily be in the running similiar to KM but that 1% difference may be all the difference in the top step and the next lower step.
And it may simply be that T100 is no longer going to be a “perfect score” wins. The talent may be good enough that suddenly race wins are shared and so it will then come down to your “worse results” vs the others.
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The factor I see most in her favor to take a win is if she spends the energy to stay on Lucy’s feet in the swim. Derron has closed the gap enough to hang with normal lead groups, but not to what Lucy can do. Knibb however can stay with Lucy if she wants to, and this would snap off Julie and give her perhaps 30 to 60 seconds onto the bike. So no chance for others to hang onto her pace for awhile and get drug out to a fast ride.
Of course Lucy will be there, but I dont think she will hang long with Taylor and it will be off to the races, with most pulling their own wind, just how Taylor likes it…
I would agree its likely that the swim will work out better for knibb as well .
on the other hand the run seems to be a bit sandier than SF so that might suit derron a bit more.
will be interesting where kingma will ride she seems not to have done a lot of running and her tting is unknown but from a talent point I see her soon to be up there at the very top.
For sure, she can hang and perhaps even take a turn in the swim group of Lucy and Knibb. And her bike power is up there or better than most of the T100 ladies, but TT’ing is still a ?? against this field. And she can run, just not up to her potential at the moment. Might see her try and hang onto knibb’s bike pace, knowing if she has the minutes she normal has in T2, she could hang onto a good placing overall…
I just watched the YT Meg McDonald is adorable. “bloody beautiful” lol
The lunch with Knibb interview
She I seems a little unnerved
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I thought Knibb was very balanced with considered, if guarded answers.
I inferred ‘at face value’ that winning the Race to Qatar (12th December) was more important to her than a fourpeat of the 70.3 World Champs (Marbella, 8th November), if she felt she had to choose. But likely that was a function of who the clip was being created for (PTO not IM). Winning Marbella (NB no Derron or Gentle, but Matthews and LCB (et al) to beat) would be worth more than the #1 to #2 delta in the T100 Tour.
McDonald seized the chance of a late wildcard for Singapore (when Knibb pulled out with only days to go) and overperformed (cf others who wilted in its unhealthy conditions (for endurance sports)) with #10.
That got her priority invitations to both SF and Vancouver. But even with a top 10 here, she’ll be out of the top 10 in the T100 Standings come Sunday.
So that route to a wildcard for London, for which as a home race I’m guessing she would dearly wish, is closed.
However a decent (top 15) result here will give her sufficient ranking in the Contenders Rankings to be at or very near the top of the Waiting List. I reckon she has a good chance of a start at the Royal Victoria Dock.
“Bloody Beautiful” she houghed.
Local = UTC-7
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She is a Bloody Gem…
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A smiley Paula Findlay!!
https://www.instagram.com/p/DKzx3CApkkE/
Start times and how to watch on Saturday 14th June
MPro = 0930 local time (1730 in the UK or 1830 CEST, US 1230 Eastern.
WPro = 1200 local time (2000 in the UK or 2100 CEST, US 1200 Eastern.
Low Tide = 1431 local time. A lot of wading on the ‘swim’ (two loops) for the women.
Free globally on PTO+, or on TNT Sports 2 in the UK, Max or Discovery+ in Europe, or beIN in North America.
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I remember those days too. Waiting for the glossy pictures in Triathlete magazine. Too be honest I just get overwhelmed with the coverage these days and find it to be too much. But true as a fan its all there if you can get all your gadgets synched or whatever.
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I think she gone to altitude training with the OD squad hasn’t she?
what annoys me is the new trend on slowtwitch to dump videos without a short synopsis why one should actually watch it.