You betcha
But Worlds
And if Colnago are to be believed (I donāt see why they arenāt - we all knew that previous frame was an aero dog) then he effectively has an extra 20 watts now. As do all his teammates when they are making things harder early on!!
I suspect this is NOT a popular opinion - but a race that doesnāt suit Pogiās ability to detonate and go solo (MSR, PR, maybe even Flanders) - I think UAE should take advantage of their power in numbers to force other big dogs to ride.
Mvdp only had to follow Pogi (admittedly no one else in the world has demonstrated that ability (other than Vinge)) and only took turns on the flat (my guess is 85% turns).
It sure seems to me that UAE could win with Deep/Politt/Narvaez etcā¦ and if Mvdp had to go all in to chase with Pogi on the wheelā¦ maybe Pogi could drop him?
I hope Lisa can use Jorgenson like this with Wout - going all in for Wout (against Pogi and mvdp) doesnt have a great track record.
Surly Alpecin are not UAE, but the days of them being a one man band are long gone, Philipson has shown that he can be a major player at Roubaix, and Dillier has shown that he is almost on the el tractor level diesel.
Visma if they are all healthy (and we jsut donāt know), with Van Barle and LaPorte can go toe to toe with UAE in the deep game.
And Trek, while Mads is one step below, VdP and Wout, still bring a super deep squad to the table, my point being that if that is the game UAE wants to play, there are a few other teams that can say, hold my beerā¦
And also lets face it, everyone knows that Pogi is going there to try and win, not to set uo Pollit for a win.
Good watch, That Lampaert crash at 4:26 is an odd one.
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E3
MdVP, Mads, Matteo
King Kung, Deep Wellens
Making the break is notoriously brutal, but if UAE does succeed with one of their Cossacks, watch out. But Iām not sure who that would be. Deep W is too good, as is Pollitt. Whoās their other beef for the race?
So much has to go right, for any of them. And so much goes wrong.
E3 - admittedly just looking at big dogs on the start list. havenāt looked at yesterdayās sprint casualties and any effect on E3. also headed to brevard, nc for a riding week (gravel and road for this old man - though brother in law, sister and nieces are all in for mtb) - unfortunately the planning with wildfires is taking up my long shot picking bandwidth.
E3 - Mads / Wout / Mvdp
Jorgenson / Vacek (hope his strade crash wasnāt too bad?)
Definitely, and donāt forget Wellens, who is probably their best spring classics rider and was super impressive at Strade. Being more strategic with a 1-2-3 plan of attack could put some other teams in a box.
Btw, when are we going to meet up for a mid-Atlantic ride? Iām not yet fit, but at least now not unfit.
agreed the super deep teams are more than 1 (used to be quick step, might now be UAE (maybe not cobbled classics though)).
cobbled classics have a way of elevating luck in importance compared to depth. Though I agree, if Pogi is on the start line, UAE will only race all in for Pogi. I do think playing to their depth (early break / letting their other ballers attack from long-ish range) is a worthwhile plan (same for lil trek and lisa - in my opinion) when you have mvdp in the mix. unlike Pogi - I do think mvdp sometimes lines up NOT intending to win. is that E3? Maybe NOT dropping Wout/Mads/Jorgenson/Deep could give him better intel for holy week?
[quote=āfredericknorton, post:792, topic:1284669, full:trueā] I do think mvdp sometimes lines up NOT intending to win. is that E3?
[/quote]
Looking at the Alpecin start list, I donāt think so - no closers like Dijasper or Groves. If Vermeersch or someone gets in a break that somehow sticks heāll happily let it go, otherwise I donāt see him using E3 as a training day.
Edit: Best of luck with the fires. As a westerner, I know all about that stuff.
Thereās currently nobody on the start list (Pog, Wellens, Vermeersch, Pollitt) whoād be allowed in the break.
Youād have to figure a dude like Bjerg or Herregodts would be their options for this role.
Bjerg could be the man.
Ayuso looked very boss like at Catalunya. Roglic just missed. Seemed to hesitate just a little when they were on the barriers. But Ayuso looked in control the whole climb.
E3: MvDP, Wout, Mads
Wellens, Kung
Vermeersch will probably be their guy for the break. Heās exceptionally good at recovering from short, sharp efforts (great CX rider) and can win from most small groups. Also one of those guys who inexplicably manages to make breaks where itās very clear that if it stays clear, heāll easily win.
Question is whether the rest of the peloton lets it happen.
I think this is going to be one of those PRs where you definitely want to watch from kilometer zero.
Vermeersch has finished 2nd in P-R before, and looks to be in pretty good form this spring. Hence my assertion I donāt think heād be allowed in the break. Not saying it canāt happen, but itād be stupid to let happen if youāre the other teams.
Itās always stupid to let him in a break, but heās just one of those guys that seems able to will it into action. If Alpecin is alternating early moves between him and Groves, youāre probably better off with him in your break.
I think thereās a good chance nothing gets away, but if it does itāll be either total canon fodder or serious quality, with guys like Vermeersch, Bisseger, and Kristoff in the move.
E3
VdP, Wout, Ganna
Kung, Jorgenson
Weāve discussed this before in here, but the whole break formation process is really interesting and fun to watch. When you add in the tactics that UAE is probably going to have to use, and Pogās propensity for going long (which might be viewed as a necessity here) it really does make the case for watching the whole damn race.
Great battle between Ayuso and Roglic down in Catalunya.
Back in Belgium, Lorena Wiebes is just on a whole other level.
Round 2 of Primo Ayuso. Wow.
Doogie Steinhauser had a big day out.