Sucks balls TBH. Ironman Cozumel 15 slots is a joke.
So I bought a product that gave me potential access to 40 slots, and now they changed this product? Without notifying me?
I have been contemplating doing Cozumel once more. 15 slots are truly a joke, considering you regularly have 1.5-2k people there. It’s simply because IM Cozumel is a licensed event, not owner by IM. IM has less interest in ‘pumping’ this race than some others.
(replying to the thread)
And here we are, going from “watered down championships” to “OMG only 1 slot per AG it’s impossible to qualify”.
Jokes aside, I can’t wait for the situation to have somewhat normalised into a predictable WC system (whatever that system will be, including rotating championship/s)
25 male slots would result in outcomes very similar to the 40 slots (male and female) per race days (2016-2019). The male/female split typically was 25/15 (or 26/14).
That means the big middle aged groups (35-54) will see three or four slots per race.
Seems correct: it seems that the deferral-effect (deferrals of men to 2024 who qualified for 2023) has evened up the effect that men now have all of the 2500 slots.
However, do not forget that a KQ-project for an individual generally runs over a plurality of years, such that the competition to KQ for 2024 could be harder than it was in the days of every year Kona.
And also: people are insecure about the future of Kona (will it be every two years in Kona, and will it stay in Kona at all?). rrheisler was in a post #16 surprised that Kona 2024 takes place at all…
I think there are a lot of men having Kona on their bucket list, and after the Corona years and with the insecurity of what happens after 2024, they will prepair like hell for their maybe only one chance (or for the last time if already once there)
KQ for Kona 2024 will be as difficult as never before.
(replying to the thread)
And here we are, going from “watered down championships” to “OMG only 1 slot per AG it’s impossible to qualify”.
Jokes aside, I can’t wait for the situation to have somewhat normalised into a predictable WC system (whatever that system will be, including rotating championship/s)
I agree, with the joke. 
But it is not understable that Ironman WC 2023 qualifying races for women had so many more slots than for for men (in 2024).
But I think that it is the number. As there are already register athletes from previous years.
(replying to the thread)
And here we are, going from “watered down championships” to “OMG only 1 slot per AG it’s impossible to qualify”.
Jokes aside, I can’t wait for the situation to have somewhat normalised into a predictable WC system (whatever that system will be, including rotating championship/s)
I’m actually OK with the number of new slots. I won’t go to Kona in 2024 because I’m not good enough. I only wished it’d have been more transparent and that we didn’t have a backlog of already registered carry-overs. I’ll do some math and post a bit later about the overall distribution of slots between men & women and between 2023 and 2024 races etc.
I did some quick maths.
What we know
From IM Vichy (August 20), there’re 17 races with:
850 slots for AG women (Nice)365 slots for AG men (Kona)Also there’re 120 AG slots at August races for men, but for the sake of comparativeness I’ve taken them out from the above presentation. I’ll add them later on.
What we estimate
The continental championship races (1x in 2023 and 3x in 2024) usually have twice the number of slots, so I’ll count them double and present the number of races with an asterix (*).
There’re roughly 19 qualifying races (22 races*) starting from January 2024 (excl. world championships and incl. TBDs except IM UK).
Assuming the above sample of 18* 2023 races to be a proper approximation, we estimate the 2024 races to offer:
850 x 22*/18* = 1039 AG slots for women (Nice)365 x 22*/18* = 446 AG slots for men (Kona)
Also, I’m estimating the total of 2500 race participants and deduct 100 places for PRO and HC. Therefore, I’m estimating 2450 AG qualifying AG slots to be available.
What the overall slots distribution looks like** **
IM Kona 2024 for men:
365 AG slots from 2023 IM races120 AG slots from 2023 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (September vs. October)446 AG slots from 2024 IM races120 AG slots from 2024 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (assuming the 2024 Kona will allow the August races again for qualification)200 AG legacy slots (based on feedback from Ironalby)2450 - 365 - 120 - 446 - 120 - 234 = 1165 carry-over men AG slotsIM Nice 2024 for women:
850 AG slots from 2023 IM races1039 AG slots from 2024 IM races6 x 50 = 300 AG slots from 2024 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (assuming the 2024 Nice will be also in October, allowing the August races for qualification)50 AG legacy slots (based on feedback from Ironalby)2450 - 850 - 1039 - 300 = **193 **carry-over women AG slots
Edit on 31.07.2023: numbers adjusted to consider Ironalby’s feedback on legacy slots (conservatively estimated: roughly 175 legacy slots / year split accordingly: 117 men (2/3), 68 women (1/3); with men legacy slots for 2024 doubled, because a full deferral to 2024 Kona (instead of 2023 Nice) for a well awaited legacy slot is highly probable)
Excellent work!
But I love to read the complaints and I hope peple will keep them coming.
It’s clear the experiment isn’t working (IM would probably disagree because they don’t care who shows up as long as they have full fields). Tons of deferrals & no slots this fall. Would be hard to figure out but wondering how watered down Nice is going to be. 2024 and 2025 will be really interesting for women & men respectively.
Thanks for doing the estimations!
If we didn’t have any carry-over slots, we could estimate 3x more slots in a “normal” Year (eg: Men’s Kona '26)? In that scenario a person in the top 15-20 in a large AG (eg: 40-55) would qualify for Kona? Selfishly, I would be in this category and at least I know I don’t have a shot the next few Years ('24 - not many slots and '25 is Nice) so likely won’t sign up for IM branded races at all. Save my pennies and do local races.
It’s clear the experiment isn’t working (IM would probably disagree because they don’t care who shows up as long as they have full fields). Tons of deferrals & no slots this fall. Would be hard to figure out but wondering how watered down Nice is going to be. 2024 and 2025 will be really interesting for women & men respectively.
I briefly checked Frankfurt, Bolton, Australia and Texas; if you take top1/2 finishers and compare to 2019 Kona the up take is almost 2x lower in Europe, 3x lower in Texas, 6x lower in Australia. So roughly 1/3 of top Kona field overall. It’s in share contracts to what Messick said on one of the podcast (although I appreciate it’s sample not full data set)
Seems correct: it seems that the deferral-effect (deferrals of men to 2024 who qualified for 2023) has evened up the effect that men now have all of the 2500 slots.
However, do not forget that a KQ-project for an individual generally runs over a plurality of years, such that the competition to KQ for 2024 could be harder than it was in the days of every year Kona.
And also: people are insecure about the future of Kona (will it be every two years in Kona, and will it stay in Kona at all?). rrheisler was in a post #16 surprised that Kona 2024 takes place at all…
I think there are a lot of men having Kona on their bucket list, and after the Corona years and with the insecurity of what happens after 2024, they will prepair like hell for their maybe only one chance (or for the last time if already once there)
KQ for Kona 2024 will be as difficult as never before.
I’m one of those in the “trying to KQ for the 2024 cycle” guys and I’m pretty sure that my odds just went down (or at least down relative to what I thought I needed to do). Previously I was thinking that a Top 5 would do me in M40 in AZ M40 but looks like I’ll need a top 3 to guarantee, and likely against faster competition (more fast guys coming out of the woodwork to compete). I’m also thinking that after the 4 year experiment we don’t know what’s going to happen so try to experience Kona before it starts rotating or something. Personally, I wouldn’t mind if the WC rotated, but I’d like to experience Kona at least once.
The saving grace here is that if ~1400 guys have already claimed their slots, then the odds of a roll down might actually be better than we’re all thinking. E.g. the fast guys who got their KQ in late 2022 wouldn’t have done Kona as their IM race for 2023 and have now picked an early IM in the cycle just to race…
Or at least one can hope…
I think this might have been a phenomenon that we missed a little bit…there’s going to be a fair number of people who already qualified that you can “remove” from effective results.
Still, it does show that a LOT of guys opted out of heading to Nice. Whereas, admittedly, at just one race weekend I attended in person, a lot of the women were very excited about trying to qualify for Nice next year.
The unfortunate aspect of this is that it delays, by another year, any effective measurement on how this is going. The first year was always going to be weird because of timing and the way it was handled. I’d thought we’d get better data this year. Once we see what the 2024 race schedule actually offers for slots, then we might start getting a better idea on direction, but it won’t be perfect.
If we didn’t have any carry-over slots, we could estimate 3x more slots in a “normal” Year (eg: Men’s Kona '26)? In that scenario a person in the top 15-20 in a large AG (eg: 40-55) would qualify for Kona? Selfishly, I would be in this category and at least I know I don’t have a shot the next few Years ('24 - not many slots and '25 is Nice) so likely won’t sign up for IM branded races at all. Save my pennies and do local races.
I don’t follow that math. If “in the old days” 40 slots filled the pier w/ both men and women at a 25/15 split. That same 40 slots will fill the pier, but w/ only a single sex. So there’s 60% (40/25) more slots for men or 1.6x; not 3x. If you had 3-4 slots in your AG in the “old days”, you’ve got 5-7 now, not 15-20.
Being a man, you’ve still got to be pretty dang fast to go to Kona in '26.
Unless you’re talking about women, then it’d be 2.6x. In that case, I stand corrected.
I don’t follow that math. If “in the old days” 40 slots filled the pier w/ both men and women at a 25/15 split. That same 40 slots will fill the pier, but w/ only a single sex. So there’s 60% (40/25) more slots for men or 1.6x; not 3x. If you had 3-4 slots in your AG in the “old days”, you’ve got 5-7 now, not 15-20.
Being a man, you’ve still got to be pretty dang fast to go to Kona in '26.
Unless you’re talking about women, then it’d be 2.6x. In that case, I stand corrected.
tri@thlete meant men only and he meant 3x more to what’s available in 2023-2024.
Pre-2020, there were roughly 1700-1800 AG men competing in Kona.In 2024 there’ll be 2400 AG men competing in Kona, but only 811 AG men slots are available for grab due to carry-overs (plus eventually 2x 120 slots due to shifts in calendar).In 2026 there’ll be 2400 AG men competing in Kona.
The results is, that in 2024 it’ll be roughly 50% slots for men for grab compared to pre-2020. In 2026 there’ll be roughly 150-160% of slots for grab compared to pre-2020, and roughly 250-300% of slots compared to 2024.
I think this might have been a phenomenon that we missed a little bit…there’s going to be a fair number of people who already qualified that you can “remove” from effective results.
Still, it does show that a LOT of guys opted out of heading to Nice. Whereas, admittedly, at just one race weekend I attended in person, a lot of the women were very excited about trying to qualify for Nice next year.
The unfortunate aspect of this is that it delays, by another year, any effective measurement on how this is going. The first year was always going to be weird because of timing and the way it was handled. I’d thought we’d get better data this year. Once we see what the 2024 race schedule actually offers for slots, then we might start getting a better idea on direction, but it won’t be perfect.
I know this is off topic slightly - but is anyone aware of a tool that would tell us who in which IM races has already qualified that we could mentally remove from the list? I might not even need to know names - I just want to know that 4 people in my age group for an upcoming race have already qualified so that I can mentally expect 2 roll downs (assuming maybe that 1 got lucky previously and maybe 1 had an off day).
The results is, that in 2024 it’ll be roughly 50% slots for men for grab compared to pre-2020. In 2026 there’ll be roughly 150-160% of slots for grab compared to pre-2020, and roughly 250-300% of slots compared to 2024.
I got you. You and I are saying the same thing I think. 3x more slots is relative to the 1-year only, extremely limited # of slots for '24. Comparing to a “normal” year, it’s 1.4-1.6x more. There are still no 15-20 slot age groups at a typical IM (but maybe at a continental championship w/ 75-80 slots total).
I did some quick maths.
What we know
From IM Vichy (August 20), there’re 17 races with:
850 slots for AG women (Nice)365 slots for AG men (Kona)Also there’re 120 AG slots at August races for men, but for the sake of comparativeness I’ve taken them out from the above presentation. I’ll add them later on.
What we estimate
The continental championship races (1x in 2023 and 3x in 2024) usually have twice the number of slots, so I’ll count them double and present the number of races with an asterix (*).
There’re roughly 19 qualifying races (22 races*) starting from January 2024 (excl. world championships and incl. TBDs except IM UK).
Assuming the above sample of 18* 2023 races to be a proper approximation, we estimate the 2024 races to offer:
850 x 22*/18* = 1039 AG slots for women (Nice)365 x 22*/18* = 446 AG slots for men (Kona)
Also, I’m estimating the total of 2500 race participants and deduct 100 places for PRO and HC. Therefore, I’m estimating 2400 AG qualifying AG slots to be available.
What the overall slots distribution looks like** **
IM Kona 2024 for men:
365 AG slots from 2023 IM races120 AG slots from 2023 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (September vs. October)446 AG slots from 2024 IM races120 AG slots from 2024 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (assuming the 2024 Kona will allow the August races again for qualification)2400 - 365 - 120 - 446 - 120 = 1349 carry-over men AG slotsIM Nice 2024 for women:
850 AG slots from 2023 IM races1039 AG slots from 2024 IM races6 x 50 = 300 AG slots from 2024 IM races resulting from a shifted calendar (assuming the 2024 Nice will be also in October, allowing the August races for qualification)2400 - 850 - 1039 - 300 = **211 **carry-over women AG slots
There seems to be a gap. When IM made the announcement about Nice, it was before the spring races this year. There wouldn’t have been over 1300 men already KQd from the Fall races at that time able to defer. I think there is a gap somewhere.
I also agree with the joke. And, I’m looking forward to a more predictable process! It was super frustrating being entered in one of these later races not knowing how within reach a WC slot could be.
I’m also reading these comments and using context clues… assuming most everyone freaking out about the ‘lack’ of Kona slots are men. As a woman who read a whole lot of comments (pre-2 day event and pre-WC split) that women should stop complaining about how few slots were available to them and they should ‘just get faster’ to win their AG and get a slot… I’m shrugging at the reactions here. It’s a WC, it’s supposed to be hard to qualify, and it isn’t impossible. Just hard.
Someone else in the thread wrote that they wondered if roll downs would be affected by how many men were already ENTERED in Kona ‘24 due to deferrals, and I do think that that will play a little bit in the guys’ favors, but it probably won’t be like-for-like and is definitely dependent on luck of the draw.
So in general, I’m psyched the numbers are published, I agree that seeing some races with way more slots than others is weird but also in line with normal IM “policies,” and I hope that everyone achieves their goals!
There seems to be a gap. When IM made the announcement about Nice, it was before the spring races this year. There wouldn’t have been over 1300 men already KQd from the Fall races at that time able to defer. I think there is a gap somewhere.
Potentially, yes. The weak points of the estimation are:
We don’t know if the total number of AG men slots is 2400 or lower (either generally lower or the number of PRO + HC + Legacy is significantly > 100)IM might be more conservative in published 17 races in order to give themselves a good buffer for the remaining 19 races (assumption about the representative split might be invalid)Certain US races (incl. NA championship) might get more slots in 2024 (like the IM did for IM Frankfurt, IM Hamburg, IM Austria, IM France, which all had 150-200 slots each to favour Europeans)
If IM can’t get 2400 people on the island for a single day of racing due to gov’t restrictions this year then they will likely move the whole race somewhere else, just due to $$$. They’ve fit that number in the past, they don’t want to take a haircut financially on this race—wouldn’t make sense with their history.
Maybe IM knows this is the case and will let all the fall athletes accept their slots, pay, and then tell everyone in Jan that the race is moving to make sure it’s filled. I wouldn’t be surprised.