I’ve been a cyclist for about 20 months now and have had great gains with fitness for the little time invested. Body fat somewhere around 7%, FTP around 270w, 158lbs.   I’m wanting to add running into the fold and try a duathlon, but I can’t see myself committing more than 2.5 hours a week to running, while leaving my cycling at its normal 5-7 hours a week.
I went out for my first run in probably 6 months and did 5k at what felt like a half marathon pace…time was 24minutes.   If I pushed hard, I think 21:30 would be where I’m at right now.  6 months ago I randomly went out and ran 13.1 miles on my own, and it was 1:59.  Pretty stupid to do that, and I was hurting for a couple days, but nonetheless that’s probably my current state of running without any training.
The question is, how likely is it that I’m going to see decent improvements with a modest time investment?    I feel like if I’ve gotta put in more than 2.5 hours a week to see some real good gains in the near future I may just skip running/du/triathlons altogether and just keep cycling.  I know at least in cycling there’s that newbie period where you make massive gains in power, and I suppose I’m kinda hoping the same thing exists with running.
Not trying to be a downer here, but your possibility of doing this is zero. I say this with 100% certainty.
I am lighter than you, have a higher bike FTP by a few watts (I’m around 275-280), and even when I committed 10-11 hrs to week for pure run training as a pure runner for years, I could not go sub-18. My ‘low mileage’ 5k PRs were between 20-21 min on <25mpw, and if I went up to 35mpw, I was in the 19:30-20:00 range. At 70+mpw (which is a lot of running), I was down to 18:30-18:45, but that’s clearly very high mileage.
I also have never run a half marathon training run in slower than 9min/mile. Running a 2hr half marathon training run is ridiculously slow for me, so if it feels fast to you already, you definitely don’t have the natural talent to be a natural low-mileage fast speedster (I definitely don’t.)
The bummer is that while cycling has good cardio benefits for running, at 18:xx (heck, even at sub 20), the neuromuscular limitations are big, meaning that if you don’t run, it doesn’t matter how good your FTP and aerobic engine is - you won’t be able to keep it up or turn your legs over fast enough. That big cardio engine/FTP is great to facilitate big volume run work, but if you’re skipping the big volume, you won’t be able to tap into that strength.
I’d say forget about 18:xx but focus on how much you can improve - I guarantee you’ll be thrilled with any improvements after some hard speedwork, regardless of the actual time. I’m nowhere near as fast as I was now than I was when I was a pure marathon runner, but I had more fun and satisfaction banging out a lo-training mileage (<25mpw) mid-19 5k this past weekend than I did with any of my high-mileage sub-19 ones where I KNEW I could go that fast since I was training so hard.