Dowsett to try hour record

Triathlon Forum
54

OK, thanks for that. I did not even know that UCI has a youtube channel, then again, I largely view most sport federations as blue suits on largess living off the the exploits of others, so I go as much to UCI, IOC, ITU, FINA, IAAF, FIS, FIFA websites and youtube channels like I visit hell or hospital ICUs, so I suppose I am biased to start off.

I guess reluctantly I will give my eyeballs to a federation youtube channel :slight_smile:

UCI is a bunch of jerks (just my opinion :D) with their channel. They actually stream a LOT of track races but geoblock basically everyone. I wouldn’t even mind paying to watch some of them, I just don’t want a subscription to 10 different networks to watch ultra niche sporting.
*that said, the hours are not blocked, and they keep some of them (most of the big men’s attempts, plus Dame Storey and Molly VH - although some of the women’s are notably absent) up.

55

Maybe you have better information than me. With the information I have from his first attempt, I’m seeing a CdA in the low .190 range. This jives with his statement that his wattage was “roughly 360w” on his first attempt. Dan Bigham’s analysis afterward put him at .190 also. Recently I saw a windtunnel screen shot of a graph that had the CdA in the .190 range. If the conditions are similar to his first attempt, roughly 400w are going to be needed to break the record.

PM figure from first attempt was 358w average.

Dan Bigham personally, with similar height and weight compared to Alex, also with UCI constraint, was 0.168 two years ago. Do you really think Alex was 0.19 in 2015 ?
Bradley Wiggins was 0.187 during his attempt in 2015, and he his much taller.

0.19 is a figure I can easily reach on track (same size, same weight as Alex) with very standard equipment (no disk wheels), no boundary layer management, and no wind tunnel optimisation. Be sure Alex is better than that. He is better than that on a road TT bike, while changing position regularly, …

Also seen the 0.19, but he was not in the HR aero position at this time…

But yes, to beat the record at sea level, he need around 400w. His usual FTP. So, no margin left…
Hopefully he will have good legs and low air pressure.

I sort of figure that any of the current top TT riders, or at least the ones without Gianna/WvA power output, are likely to have a CdA right around 0.17. There is just so much knowledge and technology available.

I can’t wait to see his equipment choices. Maybe. We should have betting pool.

I am going Hope/Lotus, Tempor and NoPinz clothing, Bont shoes with Speedplays, maybe a WattShop cockpit. MucOff chain.

56

At first I’d say you’re right about the bike, but seeing 0 of them at Euro Champs last week kinda tells me they’re shelved until Tokyo.

Vorteq skinsuit, Mucoff drivetrain, Aerocoach extensions, his Simmons shoes (with covers) Tempor (with no visor)

Bike is interesting… I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was something boring like a T4

57

503W for 18:30 mins
https://www.strava.com/activities/4241905107
and 433W for 45:30mins.
https://www.strava.com/activities/4206163364

Those numbers suggest it will be close.

On his most recent youtube video (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w57q6pfzEuw), part of the video was a bike workout (road) and he was supposed to do 3 x 30 at Tempo (320-360) and ended up switching mid ride. He did the first 30 at 360 and then just did an hour at 360 because he felt good. Based on his attitude in the videos, my hunch is he is confident, but he doesn’t seem to be a super cocky guy so hasnt said as much.

His videos are pretty good by the way.

58

At first I’d say you’re right about the bike, but seeing 0 of them at Euro Champs last week kinda tells me they’re shelved until Tokyo.

Vorteq skinsuit, Mucoff drivetrain, Aerocoach extensions, his Simmons shoes (with covers) Tempor (with no visor)

Bike is interesting… I wouldn’t be too surprised if it was something boring like a T4

Ya you are probably correct. I just think it would be cool to see him ride the best of the available goodies. I would toss the Argon track bike in there with the T4.

Honestly I would like to see Dowsett follow the MTM formula and just science the wee out of this thing. I think Martin’s best hour is just a handful of meters short of 54km. I figure a ProTour guy should be able to out power a guy with a full time job so with a little luck with air density I think 55 is doable.

59

Ahh good catch, the Argon would also make sense.
I think it would be sweet if it were the Hope bike, but as they were having problems delivering them to GB squad riders pre-covid, I suspect they’re probably all accounted for already, if they have enough for even that. Have you seen Velobike is working on a similar fork design?

I think between Dowsett, Hutch and some of the other folks I’m guessing are involved in some capacity or another, it’ll be tough to find anything left on the table. Dowsett has already shown he’s willing to use whatever he thinks is fastest.

I wonder if we’ll see a base layer show up under his skinsuit… or padding under the forearms of the skinsuit… or any other…tricks :smiley:

60

If I recall from downhill skiing, the fastest is no additional layer under the skinsuit. As the speeds are faster there, I don’t know how that factors into any separation between fabric and skin creating pressure differential issues. Maybe cycling at 55 kph is too slow for this to factor in vs 100-150kph on downhill skis.

61

I think between Dowsett, Hutch and some of the other folks I’m guessing are involved in some capacity or another, it’ll be tough to find anything left on the table. Dowsett has already shown he’s willing to use whatever he thinks is fastest.

What do we make of the news that Dowsett has extended his contract with ISUN, in the context of equipment selection? Is there going to be pressure on him to use the team equipment, in particular the Factor bike? Compared to when he was, kind of, looking like a free agent?

Cheers,
Rich.

62

Unlikely since his announcement said he’d be using a track specific bike, and the contract was signed before he made the announcement. Unless factor is coming out with a track bike, which I doubt.

63

Ah ok, I must have got my timings wrong. I thought when he originally announced this attempt and started talking about what kit to use he hadn’t yet secured his contract extension with ISUN.

Cheers, Rich.

64

yeah, especially given Factor’s lack of a real pursuit frame, along with his use of the Shiv on the road earlier this year, (with no real stink being made, unlike in the past with someone like Rohan Dennis showing up on a BMC) it seems doubtful that Factor is going to be restricting his equipment choice. I think for all intents and purposes all ISUN care about is having a willing domestique in the tour’s for 2021. If he happens to break the hour, all the better.

To Dev in regards to the base layer - I think it’s the stitching/etc on the base layers that is important. ITA/Ganna/Archibald all were wearing one late last year on the track, and Castelli offered it (custom made for $3k+) on their site for a couple of days… although it’s missing from the site now and also the base layer hasn’t been seen since then (that I’ve seen) - most likely like the HOPE/Lotus bike, it was used just long enough to get approval before Tokyo, then shelved until the games themselves.

The padding in the forearms is just a guess I have for guys that are pushing their armrests far up the extensions (like Archibald) to “cheat” the 10cm rule… if you had padding in the forearms, you could essentially make a very long armrest using the back of the bars, even if technically the rest itself was halfway to your wrist.

65

I think between Dowsett, Hutch and some of the other folks I’m guessing are involved in some capacity or another, it’ll be tough to find anything left on the table. Dowsett has already shown he’s willing to use whatever he thinks is fastest.

What do we make of the news that Dowsett has extended his contract with ISUN, in the context of equipment selection? Is there going to be pressure on him to use the team equipment, in particular the Factor bike? Compared to when he was, kind of, looking like a free agent?

Cheers,
Rich.

He’s been fairly open in his videos in saying that one of the good sides of ISN is that they don’t restrict his equipment choice.

66

Chris, In your predictions you did not venture into the area of wheels/tires? What is your guess ?

db

67

Chris, In your predictions you did not venture into the area of wheels/tires? What is your guess ?

db

Indeed it didn’t :smiley:

(Following the same line of reasoning that we won’t see any “Tokyo” tech in the attempt)

The easy answer for wheels is probably the Walker Brothers Ethereals… not saying it’s what we’ll see, but it seems from the limited info we get on track discs to be a legit top end wheel.
If you dug deeper, you could try to pick something out of AeroCoach’s bar graph from their AEOX Prima disc

https://d2f0ora2gkri0g.cloudfront.net/f8/22/f82239fc-15ac-46bf-97a9-76c9d5ef56c3.png

Disc “G” seems to be the pick. The question is what do those code letters stand for? You’d think C= Corima F=FFWD M=Mavic G=Ghibli W=Walker Brothers… but C could also mean Campagnolo or they could just be totally unrelated to the wheel they actually are to throw people like me with too much time on their hand off the trail :smiley: I think we can eliminate the AEOX Prima Pista (and any non-disc) safely though. Excluding some knowledge folks have that is secret, and also excluding Dowsett showing up on something like a Bolide like Wiggins that had a custom wheel design for it… I think the Walker Brothers is what we’ll see. *worth noting Campenaerts rode Ghibli’s.

Tyres - seems like again the easy to point to answer is the Vittoria’s… probably the elusive “gold” version that we mortals have no access to.

68

Dowsett tested positive for Covid per his instagram. Attempt delayed

69

I think Ganna also rode Ghiblis for his pursuit world record, considering Campag isn’t an official Ineos sponsor, I wonder if they got them due to good aero results or did he race with Italian team equipment which I think has Campag as sponsor?

Anyway, thanks to COVID, this is a no-go.

70

Dowsett tested positive for Covid per his instagram. Attempt delayed

Well that really sucks. In effect I would assume this means, “attempt cancelled” since he will be fighting the after affects from this and the Giro training block and then building a “peak” off tthat, will but have warn off back to basic fitness

71

I was on the Dowsett Zwift group workout last night and he still did the livestream at the same time (just not riding obvs). He was just going to go full off season mode now and replan the effort for much later into next year around Olympics and 2021 race calendar. So I guess we won’t here about a new date for a good few months at least.

72

Dowsett tested positive for Covid per his instagram. Attempt delayed

Well that really sucks. In effect I would assume this means, “attempt cancelled” since he will be fighting the after affects from this and the Giro training block and then building a “peak” off tthat, will but have warn off back to basic fitness

It’s unfortunate. He’s got bad luck when it comes to planned hours. He broke his collarbone about 2 weeks out from his first attempt and had to reschedule as well.

My guess is that with the team most likely backing a Froome comeback, Dowsett being on the GB Tokyo list (alternative maybe?) etc he will not have much free time for an attempt in '21 - considering a “normalish” season. But hope I’m wrong.

73

I think if he goes to the Tour in a support role (big if) and the goes to Tokyo he could give it a try off the Tour/Olympics fitness maybe sometime in late August (if he isn’t pulled in the Vuelta squad).