With it just a few days away with the women’s race on Saturday and men’s on Sunday it’s about time to discuss likely outcomes. As perfectly as Flora Duffy and Taylor Knibb executed a page out of the Brownlee playbook last weekend in Edmonton, it’s hard not to expect them working together to do that once again. I can’t think of any women in the field preventing it. Perhaps a question is will the 19 year old Taylor have the endurance to hammer the hill repeatedly for 40k rather than just 20k.
On the the men’s side Jonny looked as if he wasn’t quite back on form last weekend and perhaps a couple of kilos above race weight as did Richard Murray. The youthful Jake Birtwhistle had a very impressive run especially considering miscounting laps. Will he have the endurance to go hard for a 10k?
The current weather forecast has a high chance of T-storms for the women’s race on Saturday and then a cool overcast with no chance of rain on Sunday for the men. I’d expect wet conditions to favor Flora and Taylor as they’re two of the most confident bike handlers.
I’ve got to think Jonny will want to get away with a small group of good bikers not so great runners but perhaps the men’s field is too deep in bike power to let that happen. I was surprised how well it was shut down in Edmonton.
It ought to be another excellent race. Too bad team GBR didn’t see fit to send any females. I bet Jonny misses Alistair too.
My guess is one or two more strong bikers try to go with Flora and Taylor (if she’s in a position to follow). With lots of turns on the swim though, perhaps the field will be broken up a bit more than usual.
Because you have to bid on the WTS events, and typically have to have held a World Cup event in order to move up. Not sure that anywhere in the US bid and the last WTS level event they did was Chicago (and before that San Diego) with no recent World Cups (maybe they could get some government support and boost one of their CAMTRI events to World Cup, with a goal of a WTS a few years down)…
In terms of outcomes, not sure that Knibb will survive to the podium over the Olympic distance, although if it’s wet that will help… There’s hills and cobbles in the course that put the advantage on those with good bike handling… last year in the world cup in MTL, Flora and Knibb broke away and landed Knibb on her first world cup podium, but that was a sprint distance race. Likely a breakaway on the bike with Flora, Knibb, possibly Emma Jeffcoat and probably Carolina Routhier. My call for the podium would be Duffy, Zaferes & Hewitt, with outside chances for Knibb to hold on, if they get a gap north of 3min, or Klamer, Gentle or McShane to make the podium…
On the men’s side I could actually see a move sticking on the bike with JB, Blummenfelt and Gomez in it (and probably with Kanute giving it gas the whole way). In terms of podium, JB, Gomez, Mola or Murray, also chances for Alarza, Pereira and maybe Birthwhistle (if he learns to count) to sneak onto the podium.
Sarasota this year is World Cup this oct but in my opinion is too small of a staging area for WTS infrastructure. Great great venue for smaller scale racing.
It’s also bloody expensive to host those type of events. We hear all the time that Hamburg, stockholm, yoko, madrid etc “3600 age groupers were on the course this morning” during the telecasts but I don’t think it was close to that for SD AG participation numbers.
Is there just one big hill? How long? Are there lots of corners / 360s? The more of those, the greater the chance Flora gets away with Taylor.
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It’s an interesting sounding course and should suit Flora and Taylor. Nine laps will make the main hill seem steeper and steeper as time goes by.
“4,5 km long, the course offers a combination of climbs and drops and starts with a climb on one of the oldest streets of Montreal, St-Jean Baptiste. There will be three (3) technical turns (de la Commune/St-Jean Baptiste, St-Antoine/Montcalm and St-Laurent/de la Commune). Elite athletes will have to complete the bike course nine (9) times”
So far I’ve heard “hill”, “cobblestones”, and “thunderstorms”. I’m racing on Saturday… anyone have any other insights or tips for this course? I’ve never raced there, I’m using it as a practice for Rotterdam (drafting on a looped course with technical turns). Guess the cobbles will be a bonus, as I hear we’ve got some of those in Rotterdam as well.
I missed a lot of the follow-up from the race last weekend, was there any reason why Zaferes and Kasper(?) decided not to go with Duffy at the start of the bike; one minute they were right there with her and the next they’d dropped back to the bunch, Knibb had taken their place and those two just rode off into the sunset! Were they trying to let Duffy hang out there and expected her to drop back eventually? Or did Duffy just shell them on that sharp climb?
Also, it was really disappointing how quickly the breakaway on the bike was shut down in the men’s race; it looked like a promising move to start with. I don’t know if the hills and dead-turns on the bike course this weekend are going to liven things up or just completely kill it from the start. I wouldn’t be surprised by another snorefest on the bike followed by a routine 10k with a Mola-Gomez-Murray podium.
This season has really lacked the excitement of last year on both the men’s and women’s sides; it’s been a huge post-Olympic comedown.
I missed a lot of the follow-up from the race last weekend, was there any reason why Zaferes and Kasper(?) decided not to go with Duffy at the start of the bike; one minute they were right there with her and the next they’d dropped back to the bunch, Knibb had taken their place and those two just rode off into the sunset! Were they trying to let Duffy hang out there and expected her to drop back eventually? Or did Duffy just shell them on that sharp climb?
In the post race interview Katie Z. said something like “I tried to follow the first time up that hill and they just rode away” So yes Flora and Taylor went hard enough to flat out drop the other gals. It appeared that Taylor was over geared a bit as while Flora was spinning Taylor was grinding out a significantly lower cadence up the hill. Perhaps that’s just her style but it looked like a bit easier gearing might have been beneficial.
Pretty much, they lost the wheel coming into the switchback on lap one, and Flora and Knibb just rode away…
As for MTL, the age group course is a little different than the elite, at the far end of the course, there’s a lengthened section, because unlike the elites, you don’t loop through transition every lap, you stay on the on the loop part. The hill is still there though… From what I remember of Montreal, it looks like the cobbles might be minimal… which is probably better if it’s wet. It looks like it could be solid prep for Rotterdam, MTL is definitely a much harder course hill wise, and much less windy than Rotterdam will be, there are some technical bits in MTL, just fewer of them than Rotterdam. The MTL course would actually be a great prep course for the Penticton Sprint Du course though…
I’ll be up there for the Women’s Race. Anybody have recommendations on good places to eat (on course or off) in the vicinity? Or other things I’ll want to do/see while up there.
Haven’t see an ITU race since '98 Worlds in Lausanne. Looking forward to seeing Flora smash it.
Lots of good food options near the race course in the old part of the city (and if you’re in montreal, the necessary foods to eat are Poutine, Smoked Meat and Montreal Bagels, Schwartz’s (the smoked meat place) is not that close to the course, but I’d hit there for an early lunch before getting in position for the 1:06pm start…). In terms of watching, the hill might be a prime spot to watch the suffering on the bike…
I was hoping to go watch the women’s race, but I’m officiating another event this weekend, and the wife decided that we should travel early for that one, thwarting my plans to drive down for the afternoon in MTL…
I expect Brownlee and Gomez to be on the podium, as long as Gomez has a better swim than he did at Edmonton (still think that was the main difference between that front pack getting away/being closed down)
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Where is the hill at, on the bike course? I’ve printed out map, but haven’t tried to figure out elevation. Looks like it’ll be a great spot to spectate.
Where is the hill at, on the bike course? I’ve printed out map, but haven’t tried to figure out elevation. Looks like it’ll be a great spot to spectate.
It looks to me like the Rue St-Jean Baptiste does much of the climbing up away from the St. Lawrence. It cant’ be all that far from the transition area as the whole darn course is only a 4.5k loop;)
Out of T1, they make a left that runs parallel to the St. Lawrence, and then hang a right onto the climb. From the map it looks 500m ish or so into the bike loop…
Out of T1, they make a left that runs parallel to the St. Lawrence, and then hang a right onto the climb. From the map it looks 500m ish or so into the bike loop…
So there will be a golden opportunity in both the women’s and men’s races for several great swim bikers to hammer the heck out of that first hill, gap the rest and ride on for glory:)
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