Across the board with all weather including local TV sites, NWS, Weather.com and the most optimistic and inaccurate Accuweather. They say…
Sunday: High 70, Low mid-50s, Mostly Cloudy with 40% showers/scattered showers.
Smart ass remarks welcome…have at it.
Across the board with all weather including local TV sites, NWS, Weather.com and the most optimistic and inaccurate Accuweather. They say…
Sunday: High 70, Low mid-50s, Mostly Cloudy with 40% showers/scattered showers.
Smart ass remarks welcome…have at it.
If my 22 years of living in Wisconsin taught me anything…good luck trying to predict the weather 5 days out 
It will be what it says. It might rain, it might not. It might rain some of the day and then clear up. Predicting accurately five days out?? There are many days they can’t even get tomorrow right. Pack like I do for North Dakota duck hunting trips-bring your warmest clothes and your coldest clothes and you will probably meet somewhere in the middle. This is no joke. Plan for the worst and maybe you will be pleasantly suprised.
Right now you have to accept there are two things not in your control 1)your fitness level (there is nothing your can do this week that could make you any more fit for Sunday) 2) The weather. Try to hold tight to two things you can control 1)Having everything as prepared as you can for Sunday(Sleep, eating, gear, etc.) 2)Your posetive mental attitude that no matter what the day throws at you it will not stop you and you will not quit.
chris
Right now you have to accept there are two things not in your control 1)your fitness level (there is nothing your can do this week that could make you any more fit for Sunday) 2) The weather. Try to hold tight to two things you can control 1)Having everything as prepared as you can for Sunday(Sleep, eating, gear, etc.) 2)Your posetive mental attitude that no matter what the day throws at you it will not stop you and you will not quit.
Got all that. Interested more in the reliability of forecasts in that area of the country. Where I come from a 5 day forecast is pretty reliable, esp. this time of year. Cool, rainy weather is a bad news good news thing if you ask me. It really is a toss up. On the bike it makes me more careful and therefore more consistent in my power output. On the run I’d love to have a steady drizzle the entire time - it almost guarantees a better run time.
Bring everything you got and make a decision saturday at bike drop off.
I have lived in Wisconsin all my life and 5 days out… good luck… we have had a great weekend 45 in the morning and 75-80 in the afternoon same as today…the mornings have had fog for the most part clearing around 7 or 8 in madison… The good news is that any hint of heat and the run around campus will be more than a eye full
don’t worry it’s plenty reliable, until it’s not.
There have been forecasts this summer where they have predicted rain and storms with a 100% chance on the AM news. I get done with work and than go out for a long run in sunny and 70.
Chances are it will rain a bit on sunday.
+1 on what treis says. It has been chilly in the AM but it will likely be 25 degrees warmer at noon. If it is as chilly as it has been the past few days, but raining? I’d want some arm warmers and a do rag under my helmet.
The forecast is usually not even worth paying attention to. But, I will say that the past week has been some of the best weather I have seen in 10 years of living here.
My forecast for sunday is partly to mostly cloudy with a 100% chance of PAIN
.
WI local here. No chance you can predict WI weather 5 days out. None. It has been beautiful race weather for about the past week. Very cool in the a.m., but, absolutely perfect mid-70s during the day. I think it will be an ok day. IF the forcast holds and you have a 40% chance of rain, very unlikely you will get any. You may get clouds, but, likely no rain.
i have a friend who is a meteorologist looking at the wx for sunday, and he says that there will be a large low pressure trough stalled over the area. too soon to tell where exactly it will be, so can’t quite say about the amount of precip. his best guess at this point is highs in the 60’s with probably e-se winds around 10 knots. should have more of an idea in a day or so.
otherwise, i plan on looking out the window!
That means, the sun will at least brighten the sky - possibly from behind a tornado, but the sky will have some light. The temprature will be between 32 and 102, with winds of some speed or lack there of.
My bet is that it’s in the 60’s and cloudy – perfect race conditions. The last 2 years have been awesome for weather. 2006 was a different story…(my first IM, rain and cold all day).
40% chance is not really that high. I’ve went out on rides here where it was a higher percentage and it’s been sunny with no rain. Pack everything and make a call on Saturday in terms of what to put in your transition bags.
it was a 40% chance of rain in 2006 
=)
.
and if I remember correctly the high in 2005 was low 70s at this point too…
My thought’s exactly Scott. It even sucked being a spectator that day.
chris
Here’s my prediction - rain.
There is a low pressure coming from the Pacific NW which will arrive by Fri/Sat and is big enough to stay until Monday. So you will see rain either Sat or Sun or both, with wind. I think the temperature will be harder to predict as it’s not a cold front. My guess is that it will be in the 70’s. Any hotter and you’d get a lot of humidity.
If the weather front was moving in from the SW or S then it would be a lot harder to predict as it might not even reach us.
Bring a garbage bag to keep your bike covered in transition. Bring a light breathable rain jacket for the bike. Just in case. You don’t want to freeze on the bike because you think you’re tri-top will make you faster.
I didn’t realize it was a 40% back in 2006… Well, I raced that one. I’ll never forget it. Wet and cold!
I would pack some toe covers, gloves, knee warmers and something long sleeve on top. I was freezing on the bike and shivering uncontrollably in 2006, but I didn’t wear enough clothes – I went with a ls top and that was it. On the run I remember I could see my breath, so definitely pack a ls on for the run as well.
You haven’t lived in Wisconsin until you’ve had to shovel snow and use your air conditioner on the same day.
For this weekend you should be prepared for a little snow/frost in the morning hours. There may be some small ice chunks in the lake…this should be minimal. It may help get rid of the algea eating snake infestation too!! (There is always a silver lining) So you should bring all your warmest gear for the morning hours. booties and neoprene caps are welcome.
Soon after the start of the bike you’ll see temperatures start to rise to the 70’s at which point we’ll have tornado warnings and heavy rain. Winds will be out of the south probably near 50mph. But it will be gusty. It will feel as if the wind is a head wind for the entire ride. That may not be far from the truth. Hills will feel like mountains. People will be walking their bikes.
Once the run really starts up you can expect temperatures to spike into the high 90’s. Humidity will reach near unbearable levels.
If you come prepared for these conditions…you might be ready.
Today’s long-range forecast from a pretty reputable local source: