This is horrible advice the best bet is layers for the cold weather, it adds versatility and works.
I use a hard shell and layers year round (down to -20C) for my commute and normal riding and there is no way I would ever go to an insulated jacket.
For the op pick the one that Will allow you to layer under it, that will work best for winter riding.
Ben
What company and models of clothing are you currently wearing as layers? I currently have a thermal compression base layer and a canari jacket with removable sleeves. The jacket keeps me warm but it’s not form fitting so lots of flapping in the wind. Any suggestions on what to replace it with?