.
Well, they will always work as well as they did the day they were introduced, so in that repsect, no. However, parts availability has already become an occasional problem and only continues to increase as an issue.
I wager within 5 years the parts availability for 9 speed wear components (chains, cogs, especially chainrings) may be reduced by a significant amount, rendering service and maintenance a less viable option relative to 10 speed.
Thanks…shifters and derailleurs between 9 and 10 speed cant be mixed and matched…correct?
interesting…i am in the process of building my first ‘real’ TT bike and money is definitely an object, so I was considering scrounging 9 speed ultegra/DA from ebay and the like as a cost savings. in light of what you’ve mentioned, is there a better avenue?
I can still get 7-spd parts for my 11 yr old beater mtb.
Shimano, or compatible. No problem. I got a new cassette for it this year.
Likewise w/ 8 spd stuff for my “newer” (refurbished 11 y/o, and 8 y/o) mtb’s.
Tom has probably forgotten more about bikes than I’ll ever know, but on this point I think he may be mistaken…
Also - if you keep your chain (and drvetrain) clean, and change it before it gets too stretched out, then a road drivetrain can last for a VERY long time. Longer than many people would likely keep a bike.
I can still get 7-spd parts for my 11 yr old beater mtb.
mtb, maybe… but i just had to replace the shifters on my 7-spd roadbike and it was a hassle. since i wanted to keep the sti system, i had to drop down to sora shifters, and even then they had to be special ordered. don’t know how long they’ll be around. otherwise, to convert to 9 or 10 speed would have cost way too much and required, what, 6 new items?
so while i don’t know anything, my intuition is that they will become obsolete. otoh, how many speeds are people going to need? i
Nashbar still sells 6 speed cassettes.
My prediction is that our kids will still be able to scrounge up 9 speed cassettes and chains if they need 'em. New 9 speed levers or replacement parts might get hard to find in 10 years or so but by that point, you’ll either have a new bike or you won’t mind using a broken lever as an excuse to upgrade.
I can still get 7 spd parts for my commuter on ebay. Of course nobody really wants Suntour 7 GT components anyway. But since it still works I haven’t messed with it yet.
the STI shifters might become a problem, but on a TT bike you’d likely have barends. My experience of the Shimano DT or barend shifters is that they’re as near bombproof as is possible in this vale of tears…
I’m still running 7sp on my road bike, 8sp on the race bike, haven’t had any problem getting chains/cassettes for either. So I’m guessing 9sp probably has a good 10 years or more, except perhaps for the sti exception.
Of course nobody really wants Suntour 7 GT components anyway.
The psychological turmoil of riding “old” and “uncool” parts will lead weak souls to upgrade the components or the bike itself long before the parts become unavailable so there is no point whatsoever in worring about not being able to find parts.
I think the orginal post is just the first step in the process of the poster convincing himself he needs a new bike 
Good for 10 years…man I hope. I have had the the same components on both my road and tri bikes for 4 years. I have seen several people have their rear derailluers break on them at the worst times, and I fear that happening to me as well. Was looking to do a little preventative medicine.
Good for 10 years…man I hope. I have had the the same components on both my road and tri bikes for 4 years. I have seen several people have their rear derailluers break on them at the worst times, and I fear that happening to me as well. Was looking to do a little preventative medicine.
derailleurs are agnostic about speeds, with the exception of old Dura-Ace 8spd. Most everything else will shift regardless. I’m using a 6spd der on the 8spd bike and it works perfectly. It may not work on 10spd with the thinner chain, but I’ll probably try it first before buying a new one…
Stockpile…
There was a quote from shimano posted here recently on that. They said if the demand remains they will continue to make 9 speed compenents, when it slows and there is a 10 speed substitute that is the end of it.