Why Rasmussen wins the Tour

Triathlon Forum
1

Rasmussen will win yellow. Here’s why. Stages 13-16. Set your DVR and make sure not to miss any of them.

Stages 15 and 16 will be epic, even by TdF mountain stage standards. The Stage 13 time trial is very unusual in that it is quite hilly and includes a real, categorized climb, just a Cat 4 but a categorized climb in a TT is unusual nonetheless and that’s by far not the only hill on the route. It’s a time trial and Rasmussen will not thrive, but he will not lose his normal time nor as much as he’ll lose in the Stage 19 TT, but by then he’ll have a fat cushion. The Alps were unusually easy this year with only 2 HC climbs (of which one, the Col d’Iseran was to me far and away the easiest HC climb) but the Pyrenees are unusually hard, and dare I say simply brutal. I don’t think people fully realize how bad the Pyrenees are this year. One climb is brand new to the tour and one has been used just once (Port du Larrau during which the entire Tour was broken wide open and the top 8 over the top ended up top 8 overall in Paris). This is why Rasmussen leaves the Pyrenees with enough of a lead that he keeps the yellow jersey despite the Stage 19 TT.

Stage 14: the easiest of the Pyrenees stages but includes 2 HC climbs and finishes atop Plateau de Beille. The first climb, the Port de Pailheires is very difficult - harder than anything in the Alps - is long and steep and is followed by a long descent to the base of Plateau de Beille. The Port de Pailheires is the climb in 2005 where the entire Discovery team cracked early and left Lance isolated. A climber who breaks free on the Port de Pailheires could hope to stay away through the summit finish. This is Rasmussen’s style, but as the first day of the Pyrenees and the easiest day of the Pyrenees he may opt to sit in.

Stage 15: in my mind this was the hardest stage of the entire tour. 5 mountain passes, 1 HC, 2 Cat 1, and 2 Cat 2. The HC, which is the fourth climb of the day and will prove decisive is the Port du Bales, a climb that has never before been in the TdF. It is the hardest thing I have ever done. It’s 19K at 6.2% average, but that is deceptive, because the first 8K are a false flat at 1-2%. The last 10K average just under 10% and this includes substantial stretches of flat and downhill. When climbing the grade is almost always 12% or greater. It’s exposed to the sun and brutal heat and it’s the 4th climb of the day after 100+ miles. It broke me. The last 5K took me nearly 45 minutes. I was barely moving. This climb will destroy the field and the short descent rolls immediately into the Cat 1 Col de Peyresourde so there is no chance to recover and additional opportunity for riders broken on the Port du Bales to lose additional time. My guess is Rasmussen attacks the Port du Bales and picks up minutes on this stage. Once again, this stage is killer and should not be missed. There will be carnage.

Stage 16: the final day in the Pyrenees is also killer. 136 miles and 5 mountain passes including 2 HCs, 2 Cat 1, and a Cat 3. The only thing that made this stage marginally less difficult to me than Stage 15 was that it was a bit cooler and after a rest day. The first climb, the Port du Larrau is a monster. Everyone but me thought it was harder than Port du Bales and it is seriously long and steep, but as the first climb of the day I didn’t break like on Port du Bales and I doubt anyone will make a go for it on this climb. Too bad as this is one climb that could define the tour and did the only time before that it’s been used, in 1996. The last two climbs of the day are made for a pure climber like Rasmussen to break away and stay away. The Col de Marie Blanche is short at only 9K but the steepest climb on the tour averaging 10% with the last 5K averaging 12%. It is HARD. Then an awesome descent and a summit finish atop the Col d’Aubisque, the “Col of the Murderers”. As these last two climbs come in the last 20 miles of a 136 mile stage chasers will have to do it solo and cannot hope for team help in chasing the Chicken. This tour is all about the Pyrenees and I think there is lots more time to be gained in the Pyrenees than to be lost in the TT - even for a miserable time trialer like Rasmussen.

My rankings of the climbs by difficulty - note that I did not do Stage 8 in the Alps (3 Cat 1s):

  1. HC - Port du Bales (Stage 15)
  2. HC - Port du Larrau (Stage 16)
  3. HC - Port du Pailheires (Stage 14)
  4. 1 - Col de Marie Blanch (Stage 16)
  5. 1/HC - Col du Telegraphe and Galibier (essentially one climb so lump them together) (Stage 9)
  6. HC - Col d’Aubisque (Stage 16)
  7. HC - Plateau d’Beille (Stage 14)
  8. 1 - Col de Peyresourde (Stage 15)
  9. 1 - Col du Columbriere (Stage 7)
  10. HC - Col d’Iseran (Stage 9)
  11. 2 - Col du Port (Stage 15)
  12. 2 - Haut Follin (Stage 5)
  13. 1 - Col de Menthe (Stage 15)
  14. 2 - Col du Port d’Aspet (Stage 15)

Our TdF ride blog: http://letour2007live.blogspot.com.

2

Paragraphs… please…

3

He has to beat Evans first!!! Go the Aussie!!

Cadel will win! He can climb and he can TT…solid all round!

4

He will never win as he usually crashes five times while time trialling … that’s why we call him Crashmussen over here.

Frank

5

Could be. There is certainly very large crash potential in the Stage 13 TT. It is a very technical course and not one I’d want to try on a TT bike.

The Stage 19 TT, however, there is no chance even he will crash. It is very straight with very few turns and mostly good pavement. I just finished riding it, and was surprised at how hilly it is. I had about 1350 feet of climbing in 34 miles. Certainly not mountainous, but not the pancake flat TT that I’d been expecting as one magazine even said Lance’s long TT speed record is in jeopardy with this TT. I think not. This TT is essentially a race to the 2nd time check around 38km, as the final 18km are almost all downhill and everyone is going to smoke that at 60mph+.

One more day. A celebratory ride into Paris! http://letour200live.blogspot.com

6

Theoretically- any possible advantage for the chicken to use a road bike on either TT? Given the layout, his admitted lack of training on a TT bike and his wonderful TT style (go Crashmussen) would a road bike buy him a few seconds (or at the very least reduce the risk of losing big time)?

edit: speelling

7

1st TT - definitely. The descent into Ambialet is really dodgy with fast steep straight descents immediately followed by tight switchbacks. Not fun on a TT bike without drops.

2nd TT - no way. TT bike all the way. Straight ahead and fast. Even though it’s hillier than I expected, both the climbs and descents are straight and at a moderate grade so just hammer through them in the aerobars.

Now, if the Chicken has really admitted to not training on the TT bike, then I do not believe that he believes he can win the Tour, so I wouldn’t put any money on him. Still, after having now ridden the entire TdF course (nearly) I can’t see how a pure climber who thrives on the steep stuff can’t gain more time in the Pyrenees than he would lose in the TTs.

8

The chicken has played his cards - we all see his plan. Evans is the man to beat, he has the best tour credentials. Evans hasn’t played his cards yet, he is going to attack on a mountain stage, I am sure of it.

Go Aussie Go

9

Nice report. Thanks.

10

1350’ of climbing in 34 miles is still a tt specialist course, the profile looks like a bunch of small rolling hills that favor a power rider rather than a climber. The same is pretty much true for the stage 13 course, but the technical turns are a scary prospect for chicken.

I think Rasmussen is a lock for the podium because of all the climbing in the Pyrenees but I still think he’ll lose too much in the 2 tts to take yellow. Presumably he’s challenged in the TTs because he’s so tall, lots of frontal area so his power/cd ratio is not good, unlike his power/kg ratio, which obviously is at the top. If he’s lying about not working on his TTing then he could be a yellow jersey threat, put him in a wind tunnel and optimize his position, he could minimize his losses. If he still doesn’t know how to handle his TT bike and has a poor position (like many of the other non-GC riders) then he’ll be lucky to make the podium.

IIRC when Pantani won the tour he put in a decent TT performance, still lost significant time to the TTers but less than what everyone expected.

Thanks for your interesting observations.

11

I’m going to respectfully disagree, Kyle. Rasmussen just doesn’t have the legs. Yeah, he took home the first stage in the Alps, but to be honest everybody let him go. They let him go for a reason. He certainly didn’t look like the best climber on Sunday: Mayo, Evans, Valverde, and Contador all smoked him on that stage and Kloden and Levi looked just as strong, if not stronger, than him.

How do you explain the prologue? Boy got his ass kicked in that…he basically came in last. Unless he had some sort of master plan where he was intentionally losing time to everybody to lull them into a sense of complacency, that TT has to foreshadow what will be to come.

I think that Rasmussen will finish high, but not #1 and probably not on the podium. I guess time will only tell.

12

With all those hills I still think it suits Valverde better, as he can TT too.

Moreau could do well, but I think mentally he’ll loose it and have a bad day on 1 stage.

Kloden and Evans will be right behind Valverde IMHO.

13

Now, if the Chicken has really admitted to not training on the TT bike, then I do not believe that he believes he can win the Tour, so I wouldn’t put any money on him. <<

“I haven’t trained any time trialing at all this year,” Michael Rasmussen said on Monday’s rest day. “I’m a pure climber, so I think if I have to go all the way to Paris, I’ll have to climb faster ever than I have done in my life. I don’t think my TT skills have improved that much.”

14

Contador seems to spring up those hills- when he went no one could go with. It really appeared is if they had not chance. Of course I have not idea how well he can TT so h may be in the same boat at Chicken.

15

I think Contador is the one really interesting guy to watch – his accelerations were unreal. He certainly looked the strongest in the Alps. Will be interesting to see what Discovery’s strategy is heading into the later mountain stages. Personally, I don’t think that Levi can really get the job done. I think that he is a fine climber and TT man, but just doesn’t really have the extra needed to separate himself from the field.

Kloden is probably the favorite right now because he climbs well enough and has the TT advantage over the rest. I would like to put the money on Contador, but he is such an unknown it is hard to know what he will really do over the next few stages.

16

Just in case you guys are not aware, KNY has done the entire tour minus a tiny bit of the first couple of stages with a broken collar bone he suffered the day before starting the stages…he is nuts.

Kyle, it would be cool to see the Chicken climb away into the heavens; however, my money is on Kloden finally getting it done.

17

Excellent report and a sound analysis. I am seriously impressed that a human can get on a bike and do those climbs. This whets my appetite even more more some epic riding. Chicken is on my fantasy Tour team, so go baby.

Plateau de Beille recalls my favorite 2004 Tour moment when lance and Basso are sprinting out the finish and Lance arrogantly zips his jersey 100 meters before the line for the cameras prior to blowing past Basso for the win. Dude had some chutzpah, whether or not you liked him.

18

It’s funny that Rasmussen was/is such a poor bike handler with his TT rig. Being a mtn biker, I would think he’d be head and shoulders above the rest. But I guess if you never ride the TT bike…

19

They will have to cancel the time trials for him to win the whole thing. It’s 110km of time trials. That’s a lot. 30km more than 2005 when he had his last good run. He’s going to lose at least 6 minutes to Kloden in the TT’s and I’m not even sure the Chicken is the best climber in the race, to be honest. He’ll have to crush everyone in every climb to make it happen…and it’s not likley.

I’ll give him a solid 4th place in Paris and the Polka Dots.

20

WTF!

According to http://www.letour.fr/2007/TDF/RIDERS/us/coureurs/58.html

Rasmussen is 1m75cm tall and weighs 69kg. I’m 1m82 and weigh 68-69 and I don’t look as skinny…

I’ve aeroboard for bones perhaps :slight_smile: Or the stats lie…